Estimating multi-country VAR models

This paper describes a methodology to estimate the coefficients, to test specification hypothesesand to conduct policy exercises in multi-country VAR models with cross unit interdependencies, unit specific dynamics and time variations in the coefficients. The framework of analysis is Bayesian: a prior flexibly reduces the dimensionality of the model and puts structure on the time variations; MCMC methods are used to obtain posterior distributions; and marginal likelihoods to check the fit of various specifications. Impulse responses and conditional forecasts are obtained with the output of MCMC routine. The transmission of certain shocks across countries is analyzed.

Reconsidering the "policy gap":policy implementation and outcomes in Spain

By analysing entry policies and regularisation procedures in Spain from the 1990s to 2007, this article examines how the mismatch between very restrictive immigration policies and increasing foreign labour demands translated into a model of illegal migration, which in turn gave rise to the need to carry out periodical regularisation drives. This double 'policy gap' between legality and reality, and between entry policies and regularisation procedures, is explained as a policy in itself and as a way to solve in practice the apparently unsolvable dilemma between the demands for closure and the insatiable demands for foreign workers.

Towards the Construction of a Multi-agent Approach for Discovering the Meaning of Natural Language Collaborative Conversations

Peer-reviewed