Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

Optimal magnitude and probability of fines

The economic literature on crime and punishment focuses on the trade-off between probability and severity of punishment, and suggests that detection probability and fines are substitutes. In this paper it is shown that, in presence of substantial underdeterrence caused by costly detection and punishment, these instruments may become complements. When offenders are poor, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is low. Thus, the government does not invest a lot in detection. If offenders are rich, however, the deterrent value of monetary sanctions is high, so it is more profitable to prosecute them.

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

Dispersal probability distributions and the wave-front speed problem

The speed and width of front solutions to reaction-dispersal models are analyzed both analytically and numerically. We perform our analysis for Laplace and Gaussian distribution kernels, both for delayed and nondelayed models. The results are discussed in terms of the characteristic parameters of the models

Efecto de la suplementación con ácidos grasos de cadena media sobre la evolución de peso en lechones con poco peso al nacimiento

La evolución de peso en los períodos de lactación y transición de 583 lechones fue estudiada mediante un análisis estadístico, evaluando el efecto de la suplementación con ácidos grasos de cadena media (AGCM) en lechones con poco peso al nacimiento. 188 de los 375 lechones que nacieron con un peso al nacimiento (PN) &1250 g recibieron 3mL de AGCM cada 24 h durante los primeros 3 días de vida; su peso medio al destete (día 28) fue inferior respecto al grupo control (lechones no suplementados) (-114,17 g). No obstante, 106 de los 180 lechones nacidos con un PN &1000 g fueron suplementados, y su peso medio al destete y a finales de transición (día 63) fue superior respecto al grupo control (destete: +315,16 g; día 63: +775,47 g). Finalmente, los lechones suplementados con PN&800 g tuvieron los peores resultados: su diferencia de peso medio al destete fue de -177,58 g respecto al grupo control. Por lo tanto, en esta prueba fueron estudiados los lechones con un PN entre 800 y 999 g porque el grupo suplementado al destete tuvo una diferencia de peso medio considerable respecto al grupo control:+511,58 g. Asimismo, considerando una probabilidad de error inferior a 0,05, no hubieron diferencias significativas en las diferentes categorías de PN analizadas. De todas maneras, es importante destacar el alto grado de significación en la suplementación con AGCM en lechones con PN entre 800 y 999g (P=0,059). Por otra parte, el PN del grupo suplementado con PN&1000 g fue inferior que el del grupo no suplementado con PN&1000 g; esta diferencia de PN fue significativa (P=0,004) y como consecuencia el grado de significación en la suplementación con AGCM en lechones con PN entre 800 y 999 g fue inferior al esperado. Además, en esta prueba se incluyeron algunos resultados generales y también un análisis simple de supervivencia, aunque no era el objetivo principal

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Growth, convergence and public investment : a bayesian model averaging approach

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also,we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. Thesecond objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robustto model speci¯cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach.Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Free inertial processes driven by Gaussian noise: Probability distributions, anomalous diffusion and fractal behavior

We study the motion of an unbound particle under the influence of a random force modeled as Gaussian colored noise with an arbitrary correlation function. We derive exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions and find the associated solutions. We analyze in detail anomalous diffusion behaviors along with the fractal structure of the trajectories of the particle and explore possible connections between dynamical exponents of the variance and the fractal dimension of the trajectories.

Generalized Langevin equations: Anomalous diffusion and probability distributions

We study the motion of a particle governed by a generalized Langevin equation. We show that, when no fluctuation-dissipation relation holds, the long-time behavior of the particle may be from stationary to superdiffusive, along with subdiffusive and diffusive. When the random force is Gaussian, we derive the exact equations for the joint and marginal probability density functions for the position and velocity of the particle and find their solutions.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Influence of Assisted Reproductive Techniques in the occurrence of weight discordance in twin gestations

Background:There is no actual evidence that the ART are directly related to the occurrence of weight discordance. In some studies, ART-­‐conceived twin pregnancies are at greater risk than non-­‐ART-­‐conceived ones for pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcome: the incidences of pregnancy-­‐induced hypertension, uterine bleeding, premature contractions, IUGR, fetal death, discordance, and cesarean section were significantly higher. Discordance rate was elevated (25.3% vs.17.0%) among ART twins, which can increase perinatal risk (increased incidence of SGA and NICU admission). Other studies say that perinatal and neonatal morbidity, gestational age at delivery, and birth weight are not affected by ART. Regarding the first trimester ultrasound, some studies didn’t notice significant differences in CRL disparity or birth weight discordance between spontaneous and ART-­‐ conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies. In ART-­‐conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies, CRL disparity may be associated with birth weight discordance. In some studies, CRL discordance in twin pregnancies in the first trimester was a frequent finding. Objectives: To analyze the association of the ART in the occurrence of weight discordance in the pregnancies between 2010 and 2013 in the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, and to describe the proportion of diagnosis of growth discordance in the first trimester by the ultrasonography technology. Methods: A retrospective cohort study will be performed in those patients with twin pregnancies between 2010 and 2013, within the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta (HUJT). A retrospective and descriptive study will be done in those cases with discordance weight in the moment of the birth, in which the CRL will be studied in the first trimester ultrasound, describing the percentage of discordance detected in that moment. The general characteristics of the sample are going to be analyzed by Logistic RegressionInfluenceof

Influence of Assisted Reproductive Techniques in the occurrence of weight discordance in twin gestations

Background:There is no actual evidence that the ART are directly related to the occurrence of weight discordance. In some studies, ART-­‐conceived twin pregnancies are at greater risk than non-­‐ART-­‐conceived ones for pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcome: the incidences of pregnancy-­‐induced hypertension, uterine bleeding, premature contractions, IUGR, fetal death, discordance, and cesarean section were significantly higher. Discordance rate was elevated (25.3% vs.17.0%) among ART twins, which can increase perinatal risk (increased incidence of SGA and NICU admission). Other studies say that perinatal and neonatal morbidity, gestational age at delivery, and birth weight are not affected by ART. Regarding the first trimester ultrasound, some studies didn’t notice significant differences in CRL disparity or birth weight discordance between spontaneous and ART-­‐ conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies. In ART-­‐conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies, CRL disparity may be associated with birth weight discordance. In some studies, CRL discordance in twin pregnancies in the first trimester was a frequent finding. Objectives: To analyze the association of the ART in the occurrence of weight discordance in the pregnancies between 2010 and 2013 in the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, and to describe the proportion of diagnosis of growth discordance in the first trimester by the ultrasonography technology. Methods: A retrospective cohort study will be performed in those patients with twin pregnancies between 2010 and 2013, within the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta (HUJT). A retrospective and descriptive study will be done in those cases with discordance weight in the moment of the birth, in which the CRL will be studied in the first trimester ultrasound, describing the percentage of discordance detected in that moment. The general characteristics of the sample are going to be analyzed by Logistic RegressionInfluenceof

Letter to editor: Low Birth Weight And Adult Depression: Eliciting Their Association

Theories supporting fetal origins of adult health and disease are nowadays widely accepted regarding some psychiatric conditions. However, whether genetic or environmental factors disrupting fetal growth might constitute a rick factor for depressive and/or anxious psychopathology remains still controversial.

Influence of Assisted Reproductive Techniques in the occurrence of weight discordance in twin gestations

Background:There is no actual evidence that the ART are directly related to the occurrence of weight discordance. In some studies, ART-­‐conceived twin pregnancies are at greater risk than non-­‐ART-­‐conceived ones for pregnancy complications and adverse perinatal outcome: the incidences of pregnancy-­‐induced hypertension, uterine bleeding, premature contractions, IUGR, fetal death, discordance, and cesarean section were significantly higher. Discordance rate was elevated (25.3% vs.17.0%) among ART twins, which can increase perinatal risk (increased incidence of SGA and NICU admission). Other studies say that perinatal and neonatal morbidity, gestational age at delivery, and birth weight are not affected by ART. Regarding the first trimester ultrasound, some studies didn’t notice significant differences in CRL disparity or birth weight discordance between spontaneous and ART-­‐ conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies. In ART-­‐conceived dichorionic twin pregnancies, CRL disparity may be associated with birth weight discordance. In some studies, CRL discordance in twin pregnancies in the first trimester was a frequent finding. Objectives: To analyze the association of the ART in the occurrence of weight discordance in the pregnancies between 2010 and 2013 in the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta, and to describe the proportion of diagnosis of growth discordance in the first trimester by the ultrasonography technology. Methods: A retrospective cohort study will be performed in those patients with twin pregnancies between 2010 and 2013, within the Hospital Universitari de Girona Doctor Josep Trueta (HUJT). A retrospective and descriptive study will be done in those cases with discordance weight in the moment of the birth, in which the CRL will be studied in the first trimester ultrasound, describing the percentage of discordance detected in that moment. The general characteristics of the sample are going to be analyzed by Logistic RegressionInfluenceof

Redefining dropping out in online higher education: a case study from the UOC

In recent years, studies into the reasons for dropping out of higher education (including online education) have been undertaken with greater regularity, parallel to the rise in the relative weight of this type of education, compared with brick-and-mortar education. However, the work invested in characterising the students who drop out of education, compared with those who do not, appears not to have had the same relevance as that invested in the analysis of the causes. The definition of dropping out is very sensitive to the context. In this article, we reach a purely empirical definition of student dropping out, based on the probability of not continuing a specific academic programme following several consecutive semesters of "theoretical break". Dropping out should be properly defined before analysing its causes, as well as comparing the drop-out rates between the different online programmes, or between online and on-campus ones. Our results show that there are significant differences among programmes, depending on their theoretical extension, but not their domain of knowledge.