Inflationary expectations during Germany's great slump

Was the German slump inevitable? This paper argues that -despite thespeed and depth of Germany's deflation in the early 1930s - fear ofinflation is evident in the bond, foreign exchange, and commodity marketsat certain critical junctures of the Great Depression. Therefore, policyoptions were more limited than many subsequent critics of Brüning'spolicies have been prepared to admit. Using a rational expectationsframework, we find strong evidence from the bondmarket to suggest fearof inflation. Futures prices also reveal that market participants werebetting on price increases. These findings are discussed in the contextof reparations and related to the need for a regime shift to overcomethe crisis.

Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Including or excluding expectations hardly changes the economic explanation of the Great Moderation. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.

Constraints and non-existence of rational expectations equilibria

In this article we show that in the presence of trading constraints, such as short sale constraints, the standard definition of a Rational Expectations Equilibrium allows for equilibrium prices that reveal information unknown to any active trader in the market. We propose a new definition of the Rational Expectations Equilibrium that incorporates a stronger measurability condition than measurability with respect to the join of the information sets of the agents and give an example of non-existence of equilibrium. The example is robust to perturbations on the data of the economy and the introduction of new assets.

The influence of work context on demand for master's studies: a comparative analysisi between Brasil and Spain

The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

The influence of work context on demand for master's studies: a comparative analysisi between Brasil and Spain

The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

The ambiguous disruption of gender-role expectations in the law and the lady name

The main purpose of this research project is to analyse the major female figures in Wilkie Collins' work of fiction The Law and the Lady, in relation to the times in which the novel was produced and the situation of women in the Victorian era. After taking into account the major events of the life of the author, as well as the sociohistorical conditions of the Victorian period, I try to reach conclusions about whether the author challenges gender-role expectations, presenting the readers with a new form of femininity, of if, on the contrary, he preserves and maintains a conservative, traditional perspective of femininity and female conventions proper to the established parameters of the times in which he lived. Keywords:

A Threat to a Virtual Hand Elicits Motor Cortex Activation

We report an experiment where participants observed an attack on their virtual body as experienced in an immersive virtual reality (IVR) system. Participants sat by a table with their right hand resting upon it. In IVR, they saw a virtual table that was registered with the real one, and they had a virtual body that substituted their real body seen from a first person perspective. The virtual right hand was collocated with their real right hand. Event-related brain potentials were recorded in two conditions, one where the participant"s virtual hand was attacked with a knife and a control condition where the knife only struck the virtual table. Significantly greater P450 potentials were obtained in the attack condition confirming our expectations that participants had a strong illusion of the virtual hand being their own, which was also strongly supported by questionnaire responses. Higher levels of subjective virtual hand ownership correlated with larger P450 amplitudes. Mu-rhythm event-related desynchronization in the motor cortex and readiness potential (C3C4) negativity were clearly observed when the virtual hand was threatened as would be expected, if the real hand was threatened and the participant tried to avoid harm. Our results support the idea that event-related potentials may provide a promising non-subjective measure of virtual embodiment. They also support previous experiments on pain observation and are placed into context of similar experiments and studies of body perception and body ownership within cognitive neuroscience.

First evidence for the two-body charmless baryonic decay

The results of a search for the rare two-body charmless baryonic decays TeX and TeX are reported. The analysis uses a data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.9 fb−1, of pp collision data collected by the LHCb experiment at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV. An excess of TeX candidates with respect to background expectations is seen with a statistical significance of 3.3 standard deviations. This is the first evidence for a two-body charmless baryonic B 0 decay. No significant TeX signal is observed, leading to an improvement of three orders of magnitude over previous bounds. If the excess events are interpreted as signal, the 68.3% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions are $ TeX $ where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

A Threat to a virtual hand elicits motor cortex activation

We report an experiment where participants observed an attack on their virtual body as experienced in an immersive virtual reality (IVR) system. Participants sat by a table with their right hand resting upon it. In IVR, they saw a virtual table that was registered with the real one, and they had a virtual body that substituted their real body seen from a first person perspective. The virtual right hand was collocated with their real right hand. Event-related brain potentials were recorded in two conditions, one where the participant"s virtual hand was attacked with a knife and a control condition where the knife only struck the virtual table. Significantly greater P450 potentials were obtained in the attack condition confirming our expectations that participants had a strong illusion of the virtual hand being their own, which was also strongly supported by questionnaire responses. Higher levels of subjective virtual hand ownership correlated with larger P450 amplitudes. Mu-rhythm event-related desynchronization in the motor cortex and readiness potential (C3-C4) negativity were clearly observed when the virtual hand was threatened as would be expected, if the real hand was threatened and the participant tried to avoid harm. Our results support the idea that event-related potentials may provide a promising non-subjective measure of virtual embodiment. They also support previous experiments on pain observation and are placed into context of similar experiments and studies of body perception and body ownership within cognitive neuroscience.

A Threat to a virtual hand elicits motor cortex activation

We report an experiment where participants observed an attack on their virtual body as experienced in an immersive virtual reality (IVR) system. Participants sat by a table with their right hand resting upon it. In IVR, they saw a virtual table that was registered with the real one, and they had a virtual body that substituted their real body seen from a first person perspective. The virtual right hand was collocated with their real right hand. Event-related brain potentials were recorded in two conditions, one where the participant"s virtual hand was attacked with a knife and a control condition where the knife only struck the virtual table. Significantly greater P450 potentials were obtained in the attack condition confirming our expectations that participants had a strong illusion of the virtual hand being their own, which was also strongly supported by questionnaire responses. Higher levels of subjective virtual hand ownership correlated with larger P450 amplitudes. Mu-rhythm event-related desynchronization in the motor cortex and readiness potential (C3-C4) negativity were clearly observed when the virtual hand was threatened as would be expected, if the real hand was threatened and the participant tried to avoid harm. Our results support the idea that event-related potentials may provide a promising non-subjective measure of virtual embodiment. They also support previous experiments on pain observation and are placed into context of similar experiments and studies of body perception and body ownership within cognitive neuroscience.