Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.

Construcció d'un refugi situat al terme municipal de Vallfogona de Ripollès, pensat com a final d'etapa per a rutes a cavall

Els negocis relacionats amb les activitats de lleure i els esports d’aventura actualment es troben en expansió, buscant majoritàriament el contacte amb la natura. Les rutes a cavall formen part del gran ventall d’opcions, per aquesta qüestió s’ha pensat en construir un refugi utilitzat com a final d’etapa per a rutes a cavall. En la major part del territori, la presència de població humana es manifesta en pobles, viles i ciutats, les quals disposes d’aigua sanitària, corrent elèctric i sistema de clavegueram. Per altra banda en les urbanitzacions o cases aïllades poder gaudir d’aquests serveis suposa una inversió econòmica elevada, que implica la utilització de sistemes alternatius. En el present projecte s’ha triat un emplaçament on portar a terme el final d’etapa amb una sèrie de requisits a complir : bosc a les proximitats, disposar d’un o varis accessos per a vehicles (transport del material d’intendència), tranquil•litat, bones vistes, i cobertura de telèfon mòbil. S’han acceptat les següents limitacions : no disposar de xarxa pública d’electricitat ni d’aigua. I s’han dimensionat les instal•lacions per a un màxim de dotze persones i els seus respectius cavalls. El principal objectiu del projecte és el dimensionament de les necessitats elèctriques, d’aigua i d’aiguacalenta sanitària en condicions autònomes, i utilitzant energies renovables. La valoració de les possibles solucions per condicionar les instal•lacions, i oferir una resposta eficient per la demanda. No és un objectiu específic del treball la potabilització de l’aigua ni el tractament dels residus produïts. S’han aprofitat els diferents desnivells que presenta l’emplaçament triat a l’hora de distribuir les instal•lacions, i s’ha utilitzat un antic cobert de dos pisos ja existent. Com a residència s’ha triat un model de casa prefabricada de muntanya. Com a sistema de subministrament elèctric, s’instal•laran plaques solars fotovoltaiques i un generador de corrent com a sistema auxiliar. La captació d’aigua s’efectuarà a partir d’un pou que es troba en el terreny i de la recollida d el’aigua pluvial, instal•lant dipòsits d’emmagatzemament d’aigua segons les necessitats. S’utilitzarà un equip de cloració per potabilitzar l’aigua de consum utilitzada a la residència. En la producció d’aigua calenta sanitària s’utilitzaran plaques solars tèrmiques i una caldera instantània de gas propà com a suport. Per cuinar s’ha triat una cuina de gas propà i una barbacoa que s’instal•larà a l’exterior. S’instal•larà una llar de foc amb recuperador d’aire a la residència i una fosa sèptica amb un sistema d’infiltració per poder abocar les aigües provinents de la residència. Els fems dels cavalls podran ser utilitzats com adob pel terreny.

Momentum distribution in nuclear matter and finite nuclei

A simple method is presented to evaluate the effects of short-range correlations on the momentum distribution of nucleons in nuclear matter within the framework of the Greens function approach. The method provides a very efficient representation of the single-particle Greens function for a correlated system. The reliability of this method is established by comparing its results to those obtained in more elaborate calculations. The sensitivity of the momentum distribution on the nucleon-nucleon interaction and the nuclear density is studied. The momentum distributions of nucleons in finite nuclei are derived from those in nuclear matter using a local-density approximation. These results are compared to those obtained directly for light nuclei like 16O.

Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

The evolution and distribution of second-hand house prices in Barcelona

The aim of this study is to collect and analyze variables that could have a relationship with the second-hand house prices in Barcelona, as much disaggregated as possible from 2008 to 2011 and make a statistical analysis. The study consists of two parts. The first part is the preliminary study of the data and the second part is the econometric analysis of the data to see if there is any relationship between the second-hand house prices and the variables chosen. Finally, we looked at if there was any atypical observation and if the model presented multicollinarity. With all this information, we extract some conclusions and then, we analyzed more deeply the information.

Hydrological evidence for a North Atlantic oscillation during the Little Ice Age outside its range observed since 1850.

An annual-resolved precipitation reconstruction for the last 800 yr in Southern Spain has been performed using stable carbon isotope (δ13C) of Pinus nigra tree rings. The reconstruction exhibits high- to low-frequency variability and distinguishes a Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 13501850) characterized by lower averaged rainfall than both in the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the LIA and in the 20th century. The driest conditions are recorded during the Maunder solar Minimum (mid 17thearly 18th centuries), in good agreement with the Spanish documentary archive. Similar linkage between solar activity (maximum/minimum) and precipitation (increase/decrease) is observed throughout the entire LIA. Additionally, the relationship between the hydrological pattern in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco during the LIA suggests different spatial distribution of precipitation in the south-eastern sector of the North Atlantic region such as it is known currently. Whereas in the instrumental record the precipitation evolves similarly in both regions and opposite to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index, the coldest periods of the LIA shows a contrasting pattern with drier conditions in the South of Spain and wetter in Northern Africa. We suggest an extreme negative NAO conditions, accompanied by a southward excursion of the winter rainfall band beyond that observed in the last century, can explain this contrast. The sustained NAO conditions could have been triggered by solar minima and higher volcanic activity during the LIA.

Study of spin polarized nuclear matter and finite nuclei with finite range simple effective interaction

The properties of spin polarized pure neutron matter and symmetric nuclear matter are studied using the finite range simple effective interaction, upon its parametrization revisited. Out of the total twelve parameters involved, we now determine ten of them from nuclear matter, against the nine parameters in our earlier calculation, as required in order to have predictions in both spin polarized nuclear matter and finite nuclei in unique manner being free from uncertainty found using the earlier parametrization. The information on the effective mass splitting in polarized neutron matter of the microscopic calculations is used to constrain the one more parameter, that was earlier determined from finite nucleus, and in doing so the quality of the description of finite nuclei is not compromised. The interaction with the new set of parameters is used to study the possibilities of ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic transitions in completely polarized symmetric nuclear matter. Emphasis is given to analyze the results analytically, as far as possible, to elucidate the role of the interaction parameters involved in the predictions.

Genetic diversity and species richness patterns in Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.

Genetic diversity and species richness patterns in Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) in the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula)

This study aimed to describe patterns of diversity of Baetidae (Ephemeroptera) at the ommunity and population levels within the Montseny Mountain range (North-East Iberian Peninsula). We studied both the distribution of 4 species of baetids in 20 sites among three catchments along the altitudinal gradient (350-1700 masl); and the genetic diversity of the mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (cox1) gene of the two common species Baetis alpinus and Baetis rhodani. We found a gradual replacement of the dominant species along the altitudinal gradient. Baetis alpinus inhabited sites at high-altitudes, and this species was replaced by B. rhodani when the altitude decreased. Baetis melanonyx and Alainites muticus attained low abundance at all river sections, and no clear altitudinal trend appeared. Our hypothesis at the population level was that genetic structuring is associated with geographic distance and limited by drainage boundaries among the three studied catchments because of the short-time dispersion of adults. Unexpectedly, analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) and isolation-bydistance (IBD) showed genetic diversity was unstructured by distance for both species, which may be explained by the relatively short spatial scale studied and small topographic barriers among the three catchments. The Generalized Mixed Yule-Coalescent (GMYC) model showed that B. rhodani had two differentiated genetic lineages that co-occurred in all sites. Overall, diversity of baetids was structured at the community level along the altitudinal gradient, whereas it was unstructured at the population level within the Montseny Mountain range.

Circumsolar energetic particle distribution on 2011 November 3

Late on 2011 November 3, STEREO-A, STEREO-B, MESSENGER, and near-Earth spacecraft observed an energetic particle flux enhancement. Based on the analysis of in situ plasma and particle observations, their correlation with remote sensing observations, and an interplanetary transport model, we conclude that the particle increases observed at multiple locations had a common single source active region and the energetic particles filled a very broad region around the Sun. The active region was located at the solar backside (as seen from Earth) and was the source of a large flare, a fast and wide coronal mass ejection, and an EIT wave, accompanied by type II and type III radio-emission. In contrast to previous solar energetic particle events showing broad longitudinal spread, this event showed clear particle anisotropies at three widely separated observation points at 1AU, suggesting direct particle injection close to the magnetic footpoint of each spacecraft, lasting for several hours.We discuss these observations and the possible scenarios explaining the extremely broad particle spread for this event.

Impact of maternity care policy in Catalonia: a retrospective cross-sectional study of service delivery in public and private hospitals

Background: As a result of the growing number of interventions that are now performed in the context of maternity care, health authorities have begun to examine the possible repercussions for service provision and for maternal and neonatal health. In Spain the Strategy Paper on Normal Childbirth was published in 2008, and since then the authorities in Catalonia have sought to implement its recommendations. This paper reviews the current provision of maternity care in Catalonia. Methods: This was a descriptive study. Hospitals were grouped according to their source of funding (public or private) and were stratified (across four strata) on the basis of the annual number of births recorded within their respective maternity service. Data regarding the distribution of obstetric professionals were taken from an official government survey of hospitals published in 2010. The data on obstetric interventions (caesarean, use of forceps, vacuum or non-specified instruments) performed in 2007, 2010 and 2012 were obtained by consulting discharge records of 44 public and 20 private hospitals, which together provide care in 98% of all births in Catalonia. Proportions and confidence intervals were calculated for each intervention performed in all full-term (3742 weeks) singleton births. Results: Analysis of staff profiles according to the stratification of hospitals showed that almost all the hospitals had more obstetricians than midwives among their maternity care staff. Public hospitals performed fewer caesareans [range between 19.20% (CI 18.84-19.55) and 28.14% (CI 27.73-28.54)] than did private hospitals [range between 32.21% (CI 31.78-32.63) and 39.43% (CI 38.98-39.87)]. The use of forceps has decreased in public hospitals. The use of a vacuum extractor has increased and is more common in private hospitals. Conclusions: Caesarean section is the most common obstetric intervention performed during full-term singleton births in Catalonia. The observed trend is stable in the group of public hospitals, but shows signs of a rise among private institutions. The number of caesareans performed in accredited public hospitals covers a limited range with a stable trend. Among public hospitals the highest rate of caesareans is found in non-accredited hospitals with a lower annual number of births.

Impact of maternity care policy in Catalonia: a retrospective cross-sectional study of service delivery in public and private hospitals

Background: As a result of the growing number of interventions that are now performed in the context of maternity care, health authorities have begun to examine the possible repercussions for service provision and for maternal and neonatal health. In Spain the Strategy Paper on Normal Childbirth was published in 2008, and since then the authorities in Catalonia have sought to implement its recommendations. This paper reviews the current provision of maternity care in Catalonia. Methods: This was a descriptive study. Hospitals were grouped according to their source of funding (public or private) and were stratified (across four strata) on the basis of the annual number of births recorded within their respective maternity service. Data regarding the distribution of obstetric professionals were taken from an official government survey of hospitals published in 2010. The data on obstetric interventions (caesarean, use of forceps, vacuum or non-specified instruments) performed in 2007, 2010 and 2012 were obtained by consulting discharge records of 44 public and 20 private hospitals, which together provide care in 98% of all births in Catalonia. Proportions and confidence intervals were calculated for each intervention performed in all full-term (3742 weeks) singleton births. Results: Analysis of staff profiles according to the stratification of hospitals showed that almost all the hospitals had more obstetricians than midwives among their maternity care staff. Public hospitals performed fewer caesareans [range between 19.20% (CI 18.84-19.55) and 28.14% (CI 27.73-28.54)] than did private hospitals [range between 32.21% (CI 31.78-32.63) and 39.43% (CI 38.98-39.87)]. The use of forceps has decreased in public hospitals. The use of a vacuum extractor has increased and is more common in private hospitals. Conclusions: Caesarean section is the most common obstetric intervention performed during full-term singleton births in Catalonia. The observed trend is stable in the group of public hospitals, but shows signs of a rise among private institutions. The number of caesareans performed in accredited public hospitals covers a limited range with a stable trend. Among public hospitals the highest rate of caesareans is found in non-accredited hospitals with a lower annual number of births.

Construcció d'un refugi situat al terme municipal de Vallfogona de Ripollès, pensat com a final d'etapa per a rutes a cavall

Els negocis relacionats amb les activitats de lleure i els esports d’aventura actualment es troben en expansió, buscant majoritàriament el contacte amb la natura. Les rutes a cavall formen part del gran ventall d’opcions, per aquesta qüestió s’ha pensat en construir un refugi utilitzat com a final d’etapa per a rutes a cavall. En la major part del territori, la presència de població humana es manifesta en pobles, viles i ciutats, les quals disposes d’aigua sanitària, corrent elèctric i sistema de clavegueram. Per altra banda en les urbanitzacions o cases aïllades poder gaudir d’aquests serveis suposa una inversió econòmica elevada, que implica la utilització de sistemes alternatius. En el present projecte s’ha triat un emplaçament on portar a terme el final d’etapa amb una sèrie de requisits a complir : bosc a les proximitats, disposar d’un o varis accessos per a vehicles (transport del material d’intendència), tranquil•litat, bones vistes, i cobertura de telèfon mòbil. S’han acceptat les següents limitacions : no disposar de xarxa pública d’electricitat ni d’aigua. I s’han dimensionat les instal•lacions per a un màxim de dotze persones i els seus respectius cavalls. El principal objectiu del projecte és el dimensionament de les necessitats elèctriques, d’aigua i d’aiguacalenta sanitària en condicions autònomes, i utilitzant energies renovables. La valoració de les possibles solucions per condicionar les instal•lacions, i oferir una resposta eficient per la demanda. No és un objectiu específic del treball la potabilització de l’aigua ni el tractament dels residus produïts. S’han aprofitat els diferents desnivells que presenta l’emplaçament triat a l’hora de distribuir les instal•lacions, i s’ha utilitzat un antic cobert de dos pisos ja existent. Com a residència s’ha triat un model de casa prefabricada de muntanya. Com a sistema de subministrament elèctric, s’instal•laran plaques solars fotovoltaiques i un generador de corrent com a sistema auxiliar. La captació d’aigua s’efectuarà a partir d’un pou que es troba en el terreny i de la recollida d el’aigua pluvial, instal•lant dipòsits d’emmagatzemament d’aigua segons les necessitats. S’utilitzarà un equip de cloració per potabilitzar l’aigua de consum utilitzada a la residència. En la producció d’aigua calenta sanitària s’utilitzaran plaques solars tèrmiques i una caldera instantània de gas propà com a suport. Per cuinar s’ha triat una cuina de gas propà i una barbacoa que s’instal•larà a l’exterior. S’instal•larà una llar de foc amb recuperador d’aire a la residència i una fosa sèptica amb un sistema d’infiltració per poder abocar les aigües provinents de la residència. Els fems dels cavalls podran ser utilitzats com adob pel terreny.

Isotype distribution of anticardiolipin antibodies in systemic lupus erythematosus prospective analysis of a series of 100 patients

A prospective study of IgG and IgM isotypes of anticardiolipin antibodies (aCL) in a series of 100 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus was carried out. To determine the normal range of both isotype titres a group of 100 normal control serum samples was studied and a log-normal distribution of IgG and IgM isotypes was found. The IgG anticardiolipin antibody serum was regarded as positive if a binding index greater than 2.85 (SD 3.77) was detected and a binding index greater than 4.07 (3.90) was defined as positive for IgM anticardiolipin antibody. Twenty four patients were positive for IgG aCL, 20 for IgM aCL, and 36 for IgG or IgM aCL, or both. IgG aCL were found to have a significant association with thrombosis and thrombocytopenia, and IgM aCL with haemolytic anaemia and neutropenia. Specificity and predictive value for these clinical manifestations increased at moderate and high anticardiolipin antibody titres. In addition, a significant association was found between aCL and the presence of lupus anticoagulant. Identification of these differences in the anticardiolipin antibody isotype associations may improve the clinical usefulness of these tests, and this study confirms the good specificity and predictive value of the anticardiolipin antibody titre for these clinical manifestations.