Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Growth accounting in items of turbulence and death: efficiency, technology, capital accumulation and human capital 1929-1950

We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nationsbetween 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components:technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier),capital accumulation and human capital accumulation. We show that efficiency catch-upgenerally explains productivity growth, whereas technological change and factoraccumulation were limited and distorted by the effects of war. War clearly hamperedefficiency. Moreover, an unbalanced ratio of human capital to physical capital (a gap to thetechnological leader) was crucial for efficiency catching-up.

Death and resurrection of the human IRGM gene

Immunity-related GTPases (IRG) play an important role in defense against intracellular pathogens. One member of this gene family in humans, IRGM, has been recently implicated as a risk factor for Crohn's disease. We analyzed the detailed structure of this gene family among primates and showed that most of the IRG gene cluster was deleted early in primate evolution, after the divergence of the anthropoids from prosimians ( about 50 million years ago). Comparative sequence analysis of New World and Old World monkey species shows that the single-copy IRGM gene became pseudogenized as a result of an Alu retrotransposition event in the anthropoid common ancestor that disrupted the open reading frame (ORF). We find that the ORF was reestablished as a part of a polymorphic stop codon in the common ancestor of humans and great apes. Expression analysis suggests that this change occurred in conjunction with the insertion of an endogenous retrovirus, which altered the transcription initiation, splicing, and expression profile of IRGM. These data argue that the gene became pseudogenized and was then resurrected through a series of complex structural events and suggest remarkable functional plasticity where alleles experience diverse evolutionary pressures over time. Such dynamism in structure and evolution may be critical for a gene family locked in an arms race with an ever-changing repertoire of intracellular parasites.

Neuroprotective role of PrPC against kainate-induced epileptic seizures and cell death depends on the modulation of JNK3 activation by GluR6/7-PSD-95 binding

Cellular prion protein (PrPC) is a glycosyl-phosphatidylinositol¿anchored glycoprotein. When mutated or misfolded, the pathogenic form (PrPSC) induces transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. In contrast, PrPC has a number of physiological functions in several neural processes. Several lines of evidence implicate PrPC in synaptic transmission and neuroprotection since its absence results in an increase in neuronal excitability and enhanced excitotoxicity in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, PrPC has been implicated in the inhibition of N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA)¿mediated neurotransmission, and prion protein gene (Prnp) knockout mice show enhanced neuronal death in response to NMDA and kainate (KA). In this study, we demonstrate that neurotoxicity induced by KA in Prnp knockout mice depends on the c-Jun N-terminal kinase 3 (JNK3) pathway since Prnpo/oJnk3o/o mice were not affected by KA. Pharmacological blockage of JNK3 activity impaired PrPC-dependent neurotoxicity. Furthermore, our results indicate that JNK3 activation depends on the interaction of PrPC with postsynaptic density 95 protein (PSD-95) and glutamate receptor 6/7 (GluR6/7). Indeed, GluR6¿PSD-95 interaction after KA injections was favored by the absence of PrPC. Finally, neurotoxicity in Prnp knockout mice was reversed by an AMPA/KA inhibitor (6,7-dinitroquinoxaline-2,3-dione) and the GluR6 antagonist NS-102. We conclude that the protection afforded by PrPC against KA is due to its ability to modulate GluR6/7-mediated neurotransmission and hence JNK3 activation.

Neuroprotective role of PrPC against kainate-induced epileptic seizures and cell death depends on the modulation of JNK3 activation by GluR6/7-PSD-95 binding

Cellular prion protein (PrPC) is a glycosyl-phosphatidylinositol¿anchored glycoprotein. When mutated or misfolded, the pathogenic form (PrPSC) induces transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. In contrast, PrPC has a number of physiological functions in several neural processes. Several lines of evidence implicate PrPC in synaptic transmission and neuroprotection since its absence results in an increase in neuronal excitability and enhanced excitotoxicity in vitro and in vivo. Furthermore, PrPC has been implicated in the inhibition of N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA)¿mediated neurotransmission, and prion protein gene (Prnp) knockout mice show enhanced neuronal death in response to NMDA and kainate (KA). In this study, we demonstrate that neurotoxicity induced by KA in Prnp knockout mice depends on the c-Jun N-terminal kinase 3 (JNK3) pathway since Prnpo/oJnk3o/o mice were not affected by KA. Pharmacological blockage of JNK3 activity impaired PrPC-dependent neurotoxicity. Furthermore, our results indicate that JNK3 activation depends on the interaction of PrPC with postsynaptic density 95 protein (PSD-95) and glutamate receptor 6/7 (GluR6/7). Indeed, GluR6¿PSD-95 interaction after KA injections was favored by the absence of PrPC. Finally, neurotoxicity in Prnp knockout mice was reversed by an AMPA/KA inhibitor (6,7-dinitroquinoxaline-2,3-dione) and the GluR6 antagonist NS-102. We conclude that the protection afforded by PrPC against KA is due to its ability to modulate GluR6/7-mediated neurotransmission and hence JNK3 activation.

Thomas Mann's Death in Venice or Plutarch's way towards Eros

In Death in Venice Thomas Mann refers explicitly to Plato's Symposium and Phaedrus in order to explain the relationship between Gustav von Aschenbach and Tadzio but he hides that his novel also depends on Plutarch's Eroticus. Why? The aim of this article is precisely to reveal the different reasons for such an attitude. Indeed, Plutarch speaks highly of conjugal love in his Eroticus and this way is not followed by Mann in Death in Venice but, at the same, the German writer finds in this Plutarch's philosophical dialogue all the necessary elements to build his story of masculine love and decides not to manage without it.

Comparative genomic analysis of the odorant-binding protein family in 12 Drosophila genomes: purifying selection and birth-and-death evolution

Background: Chemoreception is a widespread mechanism that is involved in critical biologic processes, including individual and social behavior. The insect peripheral olfactory system comprises three major multigene families: the olfactory receptor (Or), the gustatory receptor (Gr), and the odorant-binding protein (OBP) families. Members of the latter family establish the first contact with the odorants, and thus constitute the first step in the chemosensory transduction pathway.Results: Comparative analysis of the OBP family in 12 Drosophila genomes allowed the identification of 595 genes that encode putative functional and nonfunctional members in extant species, with 43 gene gains and 28 gene losses (15 deletions and 13 pseudogenization events). The evolution of this family shows tandem gene duplication events, progressive divergence in DNA and amino acid sequence, and prevalence of pseudogenization events in external branches of the phylogenetic tree. We observed that the OBP arrangement in clusters is maintained across the Drosophila species and that purifying selection governs the evolution of the family; nevertheless, OBP genes differ in their functional constraints levels. Finally, we detect that the OBP repertoire evolves more rapidly in the specialist lineages of the Drosophila melanogaster group (D. sechellia and D. erecta) than in their closest generalists.Conclusion: Overall, the evolution of the OBP multigene family is consistent with the birth-and-death model. We also found that members of this family exhibit different functional constraints, which is indicative of some functional divergence, and that they might be involved in some of the specialization processes that occurred through the diversification of the Drosophila genus.

Predictors of death among patients who completed tuberculosis treatment: a population-based cohort study.

Background: Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients. Methods: A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995 1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 4160 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.15.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.924), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.22.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.713.3). Conclusions: The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.

Pretreatment with statins improves early outcome in patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke: a pleiotropic effect of statins or a beneficial effect of hypercholesterolemia?

Background: Data from different studies suggest a favourable association between pretreatment with statins or hypercholesterolemia and outcome after ischaemic stroke. We examined whether there were differences in in-hospital mortality according to the presence or absence of statin therapy in a large population of first-ever ischaemic stroke patients and assessed the influence of statins upon early death and spontaneous neurological recovery. Methods: In 2,082 consecutive patients with first-ever ischaemic stroke collected from a prospective hospital-based stroke registry during a period of 19 years (1986-2004), statin use or hypercholesterolemia before stroke was documented in 381 patients. On the other hand, favourable outcome defined as grades 0-2 in the modified Rankin scale was recorded in 382 patients. Results: Early outcome was better in the presence of statin therapy or hypercholesterolemia (cholesterol levels were not measured) with significant differences between the groups with and without pretreatment with statins in in-hospital mortality (6% vs 13.3%, P = 0.001) and symptom-free (22% vs 17.5%, P = 0.025) and severe functional limitation (6.6% vs 11.5%, P = 0.002) at hospital discharge, as well as lower rates of infectious respiratory complications during hospitalization. In the logistic regression model, statin therapy was the only variable inversely associated with in-hospital death (odds ratio 0.57) and directly associated with favourable outcome (odds ratio 1.32).

TrkB signaling is required for postnatal survival of CNS neurons and protects hippocampal and motor neurons from axotomy-induced cell death

Newborn mice carrying targeted mutations in genes encoding neurotrophins or their signaling Trk receptors display severe neuronal deficits in the peripheral nervous system but not in the CNS. In this study, we show that trkB (¿/¿) mice have a significant increase in apoptotic cell death in different regions of the brain during early postnatal life. The most affected region in the brain is the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, although elevated levels of pyknotic nuclei were also detected in cortical layers II and III and V and VI, the striatum, and the thalamus. Furthermore, axotomized hippocampal and motor neurons of trkB (¿/¿) mice have significantly lower survival rates than those of wild-type littermates. These results suggest that neurotrophin signaling through TrkB receptors plays a role in the survival of CNS neurons during postnatal development. Moreover, they indicate that TrkB receptor signaling protects subpopulations of CNS neurons from injury- and axotomy-induced cell death.

Criteria for hitting probabilities with applications to systems of stochastic wave equations

We develop several results on hitting probabilities of random fields which highlight the role of the dimension of the parameter space. This yields upper and lower bounds in terms of Hausdorff measure and Bessel-Riesz capacity, respectively. We apply these results to a system of stochastic wave equations in spatial dimension k >- 1 driven by a d-dimensional spatially homogeneous additive Gaussian noise that is white in time and colored in space.

Uso de la hipotermia en el síndrome posparada cardíaca

Antecedentes: La parada cardiorrespiratoria es uno de los principalesproblemas sanitarios en los países desarrollados, además de por la mortalidadproducida, por las importantes repercusiones neurológicas posteriores quepresentan las personas que sobreviven. Hasta un 64% de los supervivientespuede presentar secuelas de gravedad, y tan solo un 1,4% queda exento dealgún tipo de alteración neurológica. Distintos ensayos clínicos, muestran quela hipotermia inducida ligera, es decir, el descenso controlado de latemperatura corporal mejora la supervivencia y los daños neurológicos en lospacientes adultos inconscientes tras una resucitación cardiopulmonar. Sinembargo, no está del todo claro cuáles son los pacientes más indicados pararecibir la terapia, la técnica de inducción ideal, la temperatura objetivo, suduración y la tasa idónea de recalentamiento.Objetivos: El objetivo del estudio es conocer la técnica de hipotermiaterapéutica como cuidado posresucitación tras sufrir una parada cardíaca.Metodología: Para ello, se realizó una búsqueda bibliográfica a través de lassiguientes bases de datos: CSIC, Medline PubMed, CINAHL, BibliotecaCochrane, Cuiden Plus, Dialnet, Scopus y ScienceDirect. Finalmente, seaceptaron 8 artículos que pertenecían a los criterios de inclusión: revisionessistemáticas, ensayos clínicos, revisiones bibliográficas y documentos deconsenso tras consejo de expertos, en español o inglés, publicados desde elaño 2005 hasta el año 2013 cuyos sujetos de estudio son adultos.Resultados: en la actualidad, se recomienda que los pacientes adultosinconscientes, con recuperación de la circulación espontánea tras una paradacardíaca extrahospitalaria, deben ser enfriados a 32-34ºC durante un periodode 12-24 horas cuando el ritmo inicial sea fibrilación ventricular. Se establecen4 periodos de tratamiento: inducción (desde el ingreso en la unidad hasta quese alcanzan los 33ºC), mantenimiento (desde el logro de los 33ºC hasta 24horas después), recalentamiento (12 horas de incremento de la temperatura,hasta alcanzar los 37ºC) y estabilización térmica (12 horas posteriores aalcanzar los 37ºC). Los métodos de inducción y mantenimiento de la hipotermiason diversos y se establecen dos grupos: técnicas invasivas y no invasivas.Palabras clave: hipotermia inducida, parada cardíaca, técnicas enfriamiento

The curcumin analog DM-1 induces apoptotic cell death in melanoma

The main difficulty in the successful treatment of metastatic melanoma is that this type of cancer is known to be resistant to chemotherapy. Chemotherapy remains the treatment of choice, and dacarbazine (DTIC) is the best standard treatment. The DM-1 compound is a curcumin analog that possesses several curcumin characteristics, such as antiproliferative, antitumor, and antimetastatic properties. The objective of this study was to evaluate the signaling pathways involved in melanoma cell death after treatment with DM-1 compared to the standard agent for melanoma treatment, DTIC. Cell death was evaluated by flow cytometry for annexin V and iodide propide, cleaved caspase 8, and TNF-R1 expression. Hoechst 33342 staining was evaluated by fluorescent microscopy; lipid peroxidation and cell viability (MTT) were evaluated by colorimetric assays. The antiproliferative effects of the drugs were evaluated by flow cytometry for cyclin D1 and Ki67 expression. Mice bearing B16F10 melanoma were treated with DTIC, DM-1, or both therapies. DM-1 induced significant apoptosis as indicated by the presence of cleaved caspase 8 and an increase in TNF-R1 expression in melanoma cells. Furthermore, DM-1 had antiproliferative effects in this the same cell line. DTIC caused cell death primarily by necrosis, and a smaller melanoma cell population underwent apoptosis. DTIC induced oxidative stress and several physiological changes in normal melanocytes, whereas DM-1 did not significantly affect the normal cells. DM-1 antitumor therapy in vivo showed tumor burden decrease with DM-1 monotherapy or in combination with DTIC, besides survival rate increase. Altogether, these data confirm DM-1 as a chemotherapeutic agent with effective tumor control properties and a lower incidence of side effects in normal cells compared to DTIC.

The psychosocial difficulties in brain disorders that explain short term changes in health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies a set of psychosocial difficulties that are associated with short term changes in health outcomes across a heterogeneous set of brain disorders, neurological and psychiatric. METHODS: Longitudinal observational study over approximately 12 weeks with three time points of assessment and 741 patients with depression, bipolar disorders, multiple sclerosis, parkinson's disease, migraine, traumatic brain injury and stroke. The data on disability was collected with the checklist of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. The selected health outcomes were the Short Form 36 and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule. Multilevel models for change were applied controlling for age, gender and disease severity. RESULTS: The psychosocial difficulties that explain the variability and change over time of the selected health outcomes were energy and drive, sleep, and emotional functions, and a broad range of activities and participation domains, such as solving problems, conversation, areas of mobility and self-care, relationships, community life and recreation and leisure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are of interest to researchers and clinicians for interventions and health systems planning as they show that in addition to difficulties that are diagnostic criteria of these disorders, there are other difficulties that explain small changes in health outcomes over short periods of time.

Biased diffusion in confined media: Test of the Fick-Jacobs approximation and validity criteria

We study biased, diffusive transport of Brownian particles through narrow, spatially periodic structures in which the motion is constrained in lateral directions. The problem is analyzed under the perspective of the Fick-Jacobs equation, which accounts for the effect of the lateral confinement by introducing an entropic barrier in a one-dimensional diffusion. The validity of this approximation, based on the assumption of an instantaneous equilibration of the particle distribution in the cross section of the structure, is analyzed by comparing the different time scales that characterize the problem. A validity criterion is established in terms of the shape of the structure and of the applied force. It is analytically corroborated and verified by numerical simulations that the critical value of the force up to which this description holds true scales as the square of the periodicity of the structure. The criterion can be visualized by means of a diagram representing the regions where the Fick-Jacobs description becomes inaccurate in terms of the scaled force versus the periodicity of the structure.