Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

On information and competition in private value auctions

How much information does an auctioneer want bidders to have in a private value environment?We address this question using a novel approach to ordering information structures based on the property that in private value settings more information leads to a more disperse distribution of buyers updated expected valuations. We define the class of precision criteria following this approach and different notions of dispersion, and relate them to existing criteria of informativeness. Using supermodular precision, we obtain three results: (1) a more precise information structure yields a more efficient allocation; (2) the auctioneer provides less than the efficient level of information since more information increases bidder informational rents; (3) there is a strategic complementarity between information and competition, so that both the socially efficient and the auctioneer s optimal choice of precision increase with the number of bidders, and both converge as the number of bidders goes to infinity.

Corruption and competition in procurement

We consider a procurement problem in which the procurement agent is supposed to allocate the realization of a project according to a competitive mechanism that values bids in terms of the proposed price and quality. Potential bidders have private information about their production costs. Since the procurement agent is also in charge of verifying delivered quality, in exchange for a bribe, he can allow an arbitrary firm to be awarded the realization of the project and to produce a quality level lower than the announced. We compute the equilibrium level of corruption and we study the impact on corruption of the competitiveness of the environment, and in particular of: i) an increase in the number of potential suppliers of the good or service to be procured, ii) competitive (rather than collusive) behavior of procurement agents, and iii) an increase of competition in the market for procurement agents. We identify the effects that influence the equilibrium level of corruption and show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, corruption may well be increasing in competition.

Topics, techniques and applications in urban and regional science in the nineties: a bibliometric analysis

The current state of regional and urban science has been much discussed and a number of studies have speculated on possible future trends in the development of the discipline. However, there has been little empirical analysis of current publication patterns in regional and urban journals. This paper studies the kinds of topics, techniques and data used in articles published in nine top international journals during the 1990s with the aim of identifying current trends in this research field

Complements and substitutes in multilateral assignment markets

[cat] En aquest treball provo que, en mercats d’assignació amb més de dos costats, agents de diferents sectors poden no ser complementaris mentre que agents del mateix sector poden no ser substituts. Shapley (1962) va provar que això mai pot succeïr quan el mercat d’assignació només té dos costats. No obstant, demostro que existeixen condicions suficients que garanteixen la substitutabilitat i la complementarietat entre agents en aquests tipus de mercats. A més, provo que, quan els béns al mercat son homogenis, el resultat de Shapley (1962) es manté.

Topics, techniques and applications in urban and regional science in the nineties: a bibliometric analysis

The current state of regional and urban science has been much discussed and a number of studies have speculated on possible future trends in the development of the discipline. However, there has been little empirical analysis of current publication patterns in regional and urban journals. This paper studies the kinds of topics, techniques and data used in articles published in nine top international journals during the 1990s with the aim of identifying current trends in this research field

Hysteresis and avalanches in the T=0 random field ising model with 2-spin flip dynamics

We study the nonequilibrium behavior of the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model at T=0 in the presence of a uniform external field using a two-spin-flip dynamics. The deterministic, history-dependent evolution of the system is compared with the one obtained with the standard one-spin-flip dynamics used in previous studies of the model. The change in the dynamics yields a significant suppression of coercivity, but the distribution of avalanches (in number and size) stays remarkably similar, except for the largest ones that are responsible for the jump in the saturation magnetization curve at low disorder in the thermodynamic limit. By performing a finite-size scaling study, we find strong evidence that the change in the dynamics does not modify the universality class of the disorder-induced phase transition.

Distribution of the transposable elements bilbo and gypsy in original and colonizing populations of Drosophila subobscura

Background: Transposable elements (TEs) constitute a substantial amount of all eukaryotic genomes. They induce an important proportion of deleterious mutations by insertion into genes or gene regulatory regions. However, their mutational capabilities are not always adverse but can contribute to the genetic diversity and evolution of organisms. Knowledge of their distribution and activity in the genomes of populations under different environmental and demographic regimes, is important to understand their role in species evolution. In this work we study the chromosomaldistribution of two TEs, gypsy and bilbo, in original and colonizing populations of Drosophilasubobscura to reveal the putative effect of colonization on their insertion profile.Results: Chromosomal frequency distribution of two TEs in one original and three colonizingpopulations of D. subobscura, is different. Whereas the original population shows a low insertionfrequency in most TE sites, colonizing populations have a mixture of high (frequency ¿ 10%) andlow insertion sites for both TEs. Most highly occupied sites are coincident among colonizingpopulations and some of them are correlated to chromosomal arrangements. Comparisons of TEcopy number between the X chromosome and autosomes show that gypsy occupancy seems to becontrolled by negative selection, but bilbo one does not. Conclusion: These results are in accordance that TEs in Drosophila subobscura colonizing populations are submitted to a founder effect followed by genetic drift as a consequence of colonization. This would explain the high insertion frequencies of bilbo and gypsy in coincident sites of colonizing populations. High occupancy sites would represent insertion events prior to colonization. Sites of low frequency would be insertions that occurred after colonization and/orcopies from the original population whose frequency is decreasing in colonizing populations. Thiswork is a pioneer attempt to explain the chromosomal distribution of TEs in a colonizing specieswith high inversion polymorphism to reveal the putative effect of arrangements in TE insertionprofiles. In general no associations between arrangements and TE have been found, except in a fewcases where the association is very strong. Alternatively, founder drift effects, seem to play aleading role in TE genome distribution in colonizing populations.

Odorant Receptor (Or) genes: polymorphism and divergence in the D. melanogaster and D. pseudoobscura Lineages

Background: In insects, like in most invertebrates, olfaction is the principal sensory modality, which provides animals with essential information for survival and reproduction. Odorant receptors are involved in this response, mediating interactions between an individual and its environment, as well as between individuals of the same or different species. The adaptive importance of odorant receptors renders them good candidates for having their variation shaped by natural selection. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed nucleotide variation in a subset of eight Or genes located on the 3L chromosomal arm of Drosophila melanogaster in a derived population of this species and also in a population of Drosophila pseudoobscura. Some heterogeneity in the silent polymorphism to divergence ratio was detected in the D. melanogaster/D. simulans comparison, with a single gene (Or67b) contributing ~37% to the test statistic. However, no other signals of a very recent selective event were detected at this gene. In contrast, at the speciation timescale, the MK test uncovered the footprint of positive selection driving the evolution of two of the encoded proteins in both D. melanogaster ¿OR65c and OR67a ¿and D. pseudoobscura ¿OR65b1 and OR67c. Conclusions: The powerful polymorphism/divergence approach provided evidence for adaptive evolution at a rather high proportion of the Or genes studied after relatively recent speciation events. It did not provide, however, clear evidence for very recent selective events in either D. melanogaster or D. pseudoobscura.

Complements and substitutes in multilateral assignment markets

[cat] En aquest treball provo que, en mercats d’assignació amb més de dos costats, agents de diferents sectors poden no ser complementaris mentre que agents del mateix sector poden no ser substituts. Shapley (1962) va provar que això mai pot succeïr quan el mercat d’assignació només té dos costats. No obstant, demostro que existeixen condicions suficients que garanteixen la substitutabilitat i la complementarietat entre agents en aquests tipus de mercats. A més, provo que, quan els béns al mercat son homogenis, el resultat de Shapley (1962) es manté.

Ultrastructure of vitellogenesis and vitellocytes in the trypanorhynch cestode Aporhynchus menezesi, a parasite of the velvet belly lanternshark Etmopterus spinax

This is the first TEM examination of vitellogenesis in the cestode Aporhynchus menezesi, a parasite of the velvet belly lanternshark Etmopterus spinax and a member of a little-studied trypanorhynch family, the Aporhynchidae. The synthetic activity of vitellocytes plays two important functions in the developmental biology of cestodes: (1) their shell-globules serve in eggshell formation; and (2) their accumulated reserves of glycogen and lipids represent a food source for the developing embryo. In A. menezesi, vitelline follicles consist of cells at various stages of development, from peripheral, immature cells of the gonial type to mature cells towards the centre of the follicle. These stages are: (I) immature; (II) early differentiation; (III) advanced maturation; and (IV) mature. Gradual changes involved in this process occur within each stage. Vitellogenesis involves: (1) an increase in cell volume; (2) the development of a smooth endoplasmic reticulum and an accelerated formation and accumulation of both unsaturated and saturated lipid droplets, along with their continuous enlargement and fusion; (3) the formation of individual β-glycogen particles and their accumulation in the form of glycogen islands scattered among lipid droplets in the cytoplasm of maturing and mature vitellocytes; (4) the rapid accumulation of large, moderately saturated lipid droplets accompanied by dense accumulations of β-glycogen along with proteinaceous shell-globules or shell-globule clusters in the peripheral layer during the advanced stage of maturation; (5) the development of cisternae of granular endoplasmic reticulum that produce dense, proteinaceous shell-globules; (6) the development of Golgi complexes engaged in the packaging of this material; and (7) the progressive and continuous enlargement of shell-globules into very large clusters in the peripheral layer during the advanced stage of maturation. Vitellogenesis in A. menezesi, only to some extent, resembles that previously described for four other trypanorhynchs. It differs in: (i) the reversed order of secretory activities in the differentiating vitellocytes, namely the accumulation of large lipid droplets accompanied by glycogenesis or β-glycogen formation during early differentiation (stage II), i.e. before the secretory activity, which is predominantly protein synthesis for shell-globule formation (stage III); (ii) the very heavy accumulation of large lipid droplets during the final stage of cytodifferentiation (stage IV); and (iii) the small number of β-glycogen particles present in mature vitellocytes. Ultracytochemical staining with PA-TCH-SP for glycogen proved positive for a small number of β-glycogen particles in differentiating and mature vitellocytes. Hypotheses, concerning the interrelationships of patterns of vitellogenesis, possible modes of egg formation, embryonic development and life-cycles, are commented upon.

Ultrastructure of vitellogenesis and vitellocytes in the trypanorhynch cestode Aporhynchus menezesi, a parasite of the velvet belly lanternshark Etmopterus spinax

This is the first TEM examination of vitellogenesis in the cestode Aporhynchus menezesi, a parasite of the velvet belly lanternshark Etmopterus spinax and a member of a little-studied trypanorhynch family, the Aporhynchidae. The synthetic activity of vitellocytes plays two important functions in the developmental biology of cestodes: (1) their shell-globules serve in eggshell formation; and (2) their accumulated reserves of glycogen and lipids represent a food source for the developing embryo. In A. menezesi, vitelline follicles consist of cells at various stages of development, from peripheral, immature cells of the gonial type to mature cells towards the centre of the follicle. These stages are: (I) immature; (II) early differentiation; (III) advanced maturation; and (IV) mature. Gradual changes involved in this process occur within each stage. Vitellogenesis involves: (1) an increase in cell volume; (2) the development of a smooth endoplasmic reticulum and an accelerated formation and accumulation of both unsaturated and saturated lipid droplets, along with their continuous enlargement and fusion; (3) the formation of individual β-glycogen particles and their accumulation in the form of glycogen islands scattered among lipid droplets in the cytoplasm of maturing and mature vitellocytes; (4) the rapid accumulation of large, moderately saturated lipid droplets accompanied by dense accumulations of β-glycogen along with proteinaceous shell-globules or shell-globule clusters in the peripheral layer during the advanced stage of maturation; (5) the development of cisternae of granular endoplasmic reticulum that produce dense, proteinaceous shell-globules; (6) the development of Golgi complexes engaged in the packaging of this material; and (7) the progressive and continuous enlargement of shell-globules into very large clusters in the peripheral layer during the advanced stage of maturation. Vitellogenesis in A. menezesi, only to some extent, resembles that previously described for four other trypanorhynchs. It differs in: (i) the reversed order of secretory activities in the differentiating vitellocytes, namely the accumulation of large lipid droplets accompanied by glycogenesis or β-glycogen formation during early differentiation (stage II), i.e. before the secretory activity, which is predominantly protein synthesis for shell-globule formation (stage III); (ii) the very heavy accumulation of large lipid droplets during the final stage of cytodifferentiation (stage IV); and (iii) the small number of β-glycogen particles present in mature vitellocytes. Ultracytochemical staining with PA-TCH-SP for glycogen proved positive for a small number of β-glycogen particles in differentiating and mature vitellocytes. Hypotheses, concerning the interrelationships of patterns of vitellogenesis, possible modes of egg formation, embryonic development and life-cycles, are commented upon.

Association of MMP-2 polymorphisms with severe and very severe COPD: a case control study of MMPs-1, 9 and 12 in a European population.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors play a role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but are poorly understood. A number of candidate genes have been proposed on the basis of the pathogenesis of COPD. These include the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) genes which play a role in tissue remodelling and fit in with the protease--antiprotease imbalance theory for the cause of COPD. Previous genetic studies of MMPs in COPD have had inadequate coverage of the genes, and have reported conflicting associations of both single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP haplotypes, plausibly due to under-powered studies. METHODS: To address these issues we genotyped 26 SNPs, providing comprehensive coverage of reported SNP variation, in MMPs- 1, 9 and 12 from 977 COPD patients and 876 non-diseased smokers of European descent and evaluated their association with disease singly and in haplotype combinations. We used logistic regression to adjust for age, gender, centre and smoking history. RESULTS: Haplotypes of two SNPs in MMP-12 (rs652438 and rs2276109), showed an association with severe/very severe disease, corresponding to GOLD Stages III and IV. CONCLUSIONS: Those with the common A-A haplotype for these two SNPs were at greater risk of developing severe/very severe disease (p = 0.0039) while possession of the minor G variants at either SNP locus had a protective effect (adjusted odds ratio of 0.76; 95% CI 0.61 - 0.94). The A-A haplotype was also associated with significantly lower predicted FEV1 (42.62% versus 44.79%; p = 0.0129). This implicates haplotypes of MMP-12 as modifiers of disease severity.

Review. Precision viticulture. Research topics, challenges and opportunities in site-specific vineyard management

Precision Viticulture (PV) is a concept that is beginning to have an impact on the wine-growing sector. Its practical implementation is dependant on various technological developments: crop sensors and yield monitors, local and remote sensors, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), VRA (Variable-Rate Application) equipment and machinery, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and systems for data analysis and interpretation. This paper reviews a number of research lines related to PV. These areas of research have focused on four very specific fields: 1) quantification and evaluation of within-field variability, 2) delineation of zones of differential treatment at parcel level, based on the analysis and interpretation of this variability, 3) development of Variable-Rate Technologies (VRT) and, finally, 4) evaluation of the opportunities for site-specific vineyard management. Research in these fields should allow winegrowers and enologists to know and understand why yield variability exists within the same parcel, what the causes of this variability are, how the yield and its quality are interrelated and, if spatial variability exists, whether site-specific vineyard management is justifiable on a technical and economic basis.

Signaling across the synapse: a role for Wnt and Dishevelled in presynaptic assembly and neurotransmitter release

Proper dialogue between presynaptic neurons and their targets is essential for correct synaptic assembly and function. At central synapses, Wnt proteins function as retrograde signals to regulate axon remodeling and the accumulation of presynaptic proteins. Loss of Wnt7a function leads to defects in the localization of presynaptic markers and in the morphology of the presynaptic axons. We show that loss of function of Dishevelled-1 (Dvl1) mimics and enhances the Wnt7a phenotype in the cerebellum. Although active zones appear normal, electrophysiological recordings in cerebellar slices from Wnt7a/Dvl1 double mutant mice reveal a defect in neurotransmitter release at mossy fi ber–granule cell synapses. Deficiency in Dvl1 decreases, whereas exposure to Wnt increases, synaptic vesicle recycling in mossy fi bers. Dvl increases the number of Bassoon clusters, and like other components of the Wnt pathway, it localizes to synaptic sites. These fi ndings demonstrate that Wnts signal across the synapse on Dvl-expressing presynaptic terminals to regulate synaptic assembly and suggest a potential novel function for Wnts in neurotransmitter release.