Risk dominance selects the leader. An experimental analysis

Coordination games arise very often in studies of industrial organization and international trade. This type of games has multiple strict equilibria, and therefore the identification of testable predictions isvery difficult. We study a vertical product differentiation model with two asymmetric players choosing first qualities and then prices. This game has two equilibria for some parameter values. However, we apply the risk dominance criterion suggested by Harsanyi and Selten and show that it always selects the equilibrium where the leader is the firm having some initial advantage. We then perform an experimental analysis totest whether the risk dominance prediction is supported by the behaviour oflaboratory agents. We show that the probability that the risk dominance prediction is right depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry of the game. The stronger the asymmetries the higher the predictive power of the risk dominance criterion.

Employment protection, international specialization and innovation

We develop a model to analyse the implications of firing costs on incentivesfor R&D and international specialization. The Key idea is paying the firingcost, the country with a rigid labor market will tend to produce relativelysecure goods, at a late stage of their product life cycle.Under international trade, an international product cycle emerges where,roughly, new goods are first produced in the low firing cost country willspecialize in 'secondary innovations', that is, improvements in existinggoods, while the low firing cost country will more specialize in 'primaryinnovation', that is, invention of new goods.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

The global welfare impact of China: Trade integration and technological change

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a multi-country quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model.We simulate two alternative growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in whichChina's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to theworld productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004),the large majority of countries experience significantly larger welfare gains whenChina's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors.This finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade.

The Role of Trade in the Structural Transformations of South Korea and the United Kingdom

[cat] El comerç internacional en béns agrícoles té el potencial d'accelerar la transformació estructural dels països amb baixa productivitat agrícola perquè els dóna la possiblitat d'importar aliments. L'objectiu d'aquest article és estudiar l'importància del comerç internacional en aquest context a través dels exemples de Corea del Sud i el Regne Unit. Per fer l'anàlisi, introdueixo comerç internacional en un model de creixement neoclàssicc amb dos sectors, agricultura i no-agricultura. Una característica clau del model és la baixa elasticitat-ingrés del bé agrícola.

The Role of Trade in the Structural Transformations of South Korea and the United Kingdom

[cat] El comerç internacional en béns agrícoles té el potencial d'accelerar la transformació estructural dels països amb baixa productivitat agrícola perquè els dóna la possiblitat d'importar aliments. L'objectiu d'aquest article és estudiar l'importància del comerç internacional en aquest context a través dels exemples de Corea del Sud i el Regne Unit. Per fer l'anàlisi, introdueixo comerç internacional en un model de creixement neoclàssicc amb dos sectors, agricultura i no-agricultura. Una característica clau del model és la baixa elasticitat-ingrés del bé agrícola.

Environmental Structural Decomposition Analysis of Italian Emissions, 1995-2005

[spa] El estudio analiza la evolución de los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y las emisiones de acidificación para Italia durante el periodo 1995-2005. Los datos muestran que mientras las emisiones que contribuyen a la acidificación han disminuido constantemente, las emisiones de GEI han aumentado debido al aumento de dióxido de carbono. El objetivo de este estudio es poner de relieve cómo diferentes factores económicos, en particular el crecimiento económico, el desarrollo de una tecnología menos contaminante y la estructura del consumo, han impulsado la evolución de las emisiones. La metodología propuesta es un análisis de descomposición estructural (ADE), método que permite descomponer los cambios de la variable de interés entre las diferentes fuerzas y revelar la importancia de cada factor. Por otra parte, este estudio considera la importancia del comercio internacional e intenta incluir el “problema de la responsabilidad”. Es decir, a través de las relaciones comerciales internacionales, un país podría estar exportando procesos de producción contaminantes sin una reducción real de la contaminación implícita en su patrón de consumo. Con este fin, siguiendo primero un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del productor”, el ADE se aplica a las emisiones causadas por la producción nacional. Sucesivamente, el análisis se mueve hacia un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del consumidor" y la descomposición se aplica a las emisiones relacionadas con la producción nacional o la producción extranjera que satisface la demanda interna. De esta manera, el ejercicio permite una primera comprobación de la importancia del comercio internacional y pone de relieve algunos resultados a nivel global y a nivel sectorial.

Environmental Structural Decomposition Analysis of Italian Emissions, 1995-2005

[spa] El estudio analiza la evolución de los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) y las emisiones de acidificación para Italia durante el periodo 1995-2005. Los datos muestran que mientras las emisiones que contribuyen a la acidificación han disminuido constantemente, las emisiones de GEI han aumentado debido al aumento de dióxido de carbono. El objetivo de este estudio es poner de relieve cómo diferentes factores económicos, en particular el crecimiento económico, el desarrollo de una tecnología menos contaminante y la estructura del consumo, han impulsado la evolución de las emisiones. La metodología propuesta es un análisis de descomposición estructural (ADE), método que permite descomponer los cambios de la variable de interés entre las diferentes fuerzas y revelar la importancia de cada factor. Por otra parte, este estudio considera la importancia del comercio internacional e intenta incluir el “problema de la responsabilidad”. Es decir, a través de las relaciones comerciales internacionales, un país podría estar exportando procesos de producción contaminantes sin una reducción real de la contaminación implícita en su patrón de consumo. Con este fin, siguiendo primero un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del productor”, el ADE se aplica a las emisiones causadas por la producción nacional. Sucesivamente, el análisis se mueve hacia un enfoque basado en la “responsabilidad del consumidor" y la descomposición se aplica a las emisiones relacionadas con la producción nacional o la producción extranjera que satisface la demanda interna. De esta manera, el ejercicio permite una primera comprobación de la importancia del comercio internacional y pone de relieve algunos resultados a nivel global y a nivel sectorial.

The biophysical perspective of a middle income economy: material flows in Mexico

We analyse natural resource use dynamics in the Mexican economy during the last three decades. Despite low and uneven economic growth, the extraction and use of materials in the Mexican economy has continuously increased during the last 30 years. In this period, population growth rather than economic growth was the main driving force for biophysical growth. In addition, fundamental changes have taken place in the primary sectors, in manufacturing, and in household consumption and these are reflected in an increasing emphasis on the use of fossil fuels and construction materials. Mexico’s economy has been strongly influenced by international trade since the country commenced competing in international markets. In the 1970s, Mexico mainly exported primary resources. This pattern has changed and manufactured goods now have a much greater importance due to a boom in assembling industries. In contrast with other Latin American countries, Mexico has achieved a diversification of production, moving towards technology-intensive products and a better mix in its export portfolio. However, crude oil exports still represent the single most important export good. Mexico’s material consumption is still well below the OECD average but is growing fast and the current resource use patterns may well present serious social and environmental problems to the medium and long term sustainability of Mexico’s economy and community. Information on natural resource use and resource productivity could provide valuable guidance for economic policy planning in Mexico.

Are Dictators Immune to Human Rights Shaming?

This paper examines whether human rights naming and shaming destabilizes the rule of authoritarian leaders. We argue that human rights shaming can destabilize autocratic leaders by signaling international disapproval to elites in the targeted country, increasing their capacity to replace the incumbent. In personalist regimes, shaming increases the risk of irregular exit because regime elite do not have a means to peacefully replace the incumbent. Shaming campaigns also decrease foreign aid and international trade in personalist regimes, denying the leader access to resources to pay his coalition – further destabilizing his rule. In non-personalist regimes where parties or the military allow elites to peacefully replace incumbents, human rights shaming increases the risk of regular turnover of power, but has little effect on the risk of irregular exit or international flows of aid and trade. These findings have implications for understanding when and where shaming campaigns are likely to reduce or deter repression.

The ‘Dragon’ and the ‘Elephant’ and Global Imbalances

Global financial imbalances receive a great deal of attention in relation to the emerging economies China and India. This chapter analyzes this relation, but argues first that they are actually re-balancing the existing structural inequality in the world economy, in which for so long only the Western economies and Japan dominated economic growth and international trade, moving towards a more multi-polar world economy. China in particular, with its rapid export-led growth, has indeed been part and parcel of the emerging financial imbalances, feeding the ‘over-consumption’ in the US and using its accumulating international reserves in buying US-treasury bonds. Finance therefore is moving to the economy that ‘least needs it’. This imbalance can only be redressed if the US (and some of the other OECD countries) start saving more and consuming less (and become more competitive), with China further stimulating domestic demand (which it already did in response to the crisis). China and to a lesser extend India, as emerging large economies and a more important roles in global markets, also contribute to new imbalances, such as the influence of the insatiable appetite for resources (carbon-hydrates, minerals and bio-mass) of these relatively energy-inefficient economies, while at the same time attracting an increasing share of FDI towards them. The chapter finally raises the issue that these three mentioned imbalances make it more difficult for developing countries (except for those who are resource-rich) to get access to the necessary development finance.

Cuestiones de pintura y miniatura en Cerdeña: modelos, intercambios y relaciones internacionales en la segunda mitad del siglo XV

Durante el siglo XV Cerdeña desempeña, gracias a su posicionamiento geográfico en el centro del Mediterráneo, un papel muy importante en la red de comercio internacional. Este movimiento económico-cultural fomenta una extensa producción artística que está caracterizada por depender fuertemente de la presencia en la isla de talleres y artistas catalanes. Al día de hoy se conoce muy poco la presencia y las características de la pintura del gótico tardío en la Cerdeña. Las dificultades encontradas por los investigadores en la reconstrucción de la historia del arte sarda de esta época son numerosas y difíciles de solucionar. El problema depende de la falta de fuentes documentales (directas e indirectas), de la gran dispersión de muchísimas obras, de la inaccesibilidad de unas de las obras más interesantes; del desplazamiento casi total de las obras de su sitio original, y del total anonimato de la mayoría de los artistas. En estas condiciones la única solución para alcanzar nuevos elementos científicos es: integrar los conocimientos procedente de las fuentes documentales; ampliar la practica metodológica (multidisciplinariedad), conectar el tejido sardo (pintura, miniatura, grabados) con el ámbito internacional. El objetivo final es introducir la pintura sarda en un contexto más amplio, para poder descubrir el sistema de modelos y de relaciones artísticas, que la conectan con el mundo artístico mediterráneo. El trabajo de este primer año ha sido particularmente intenso y complicado por las dificultades encontradas en ponerse en un tema tan vasto como lo de la pintura y los modelos figurativos de la segunda mitad del siglo XV. Principales objetivos: averiguar toda la bibliografía conocida sobre el tema e intentar ampliar los estudios cada vez que se encontraban indicios sobre posibles autores y obras sardas; empezar el trabajo de catalogación de las obras pictóricas (conocidas o recien descubiertas.)

Impacte econòmic de les relacions entre Taiwan i la República Popular de la Xina (1987-2010)

El treball es centra en analitzar els efectes generats per la relació política entre Taiwan i la Xina sobre la seva relació econòmica i comercial durant el període comprés entre 1987 i 2010.

Sources of comparative advantage in polluting industries

We study the determinants of comparative advantage in polluting industries. We combine data on environmental policy at the country level with data on pollution intensity at the industry level to show that countries with laxer environmental regulation have a comparative advantage in polluting industries. Further, we address the potential problem of reverse causality. We propose an instrument for environmental regulation based on meteorological determinants of pollution dispersion identified by the atmospheric pollution literature. We find that the effect of environmental regulation on the pattern of trade is causal and comparable in magnitude to the effect of physical and human capital.