The determinants of CAP reform: learning from the European financial crisis and CAP 2013

There is an ongoing debate on which are the determinants of CAP reform. The economic environment has not been contemplated as a direct determinant of CAP reform but its proxy, the budget, has not only been looked at as such but underlined as a key cause of CAP reform. This paper argues, however, that the budget does not affect the modus operandi of the CAP. It affects the quantity of support each farmer is going to get and sometimes even the timing of the reform, but not the form it is going to receive it. Other CAP determinants and international negotiations in particular, have an impact on the substance of CAP reform. This hypothesis is not contradicted by an analysis of CAP 2013 changes.

World Polarization in carbon emissions, potential conflict and groups: an updated revision

Typically, conflicts in world environmental negotiations are related, amongst other aspects, to the level of polarization of the countries in groups with conflicting interests. Given the predictable relationship between polarization and conflict, it would seem logical to evaluate the degree to which the distribution of countries – for example, in terms of their CO2 emissions per capita – would be structured through groups which in themselves are antagonistic, as well as their evolution over time. This paper takes the concept of polarization to explore this distribution for the period 1992-2010, looking at different analytic approaches related to the concept. Specifically, it makes a comparative evaluation of the results associated with endogenous multi-polarization measures (i.e. EGR and DER indices), exogenous measures (i.e. Z-K or multidimensional index) and strict bipolarization measures (i.e. Wolfson’s measure). Indeed, the interest lies not only in evaluating the global situation of polarization by comparing the different approaches and their temporal patterns, but also in examining the explanatory capacity of the different proxy groups used as a possible reference for designing global environmental policy from a group premise. JEL codes: D39; Q43; Q56. Key words: polarization; carbon emissions; conflict;