Risc i efectes a la salut de la desinfecció de l'aigua: una aproximació a la relació entre els subproductes de la cloració de l'aigua i el càncer colorectal

Aquest projecte es centra en l'estimació del risc ambiental que suposen els subproductes de la desinfecció de l'aigua (amb els trihalometans com a marcadors) per a la incidència de càncer colorectal. Això s'estudia mesurant les exposicions i usos de l'aigua d'un grup de casos i controls a diversos llocs de l'Estat Espanyol, comparant els nivells de trihalometans d'aquestes ciutats, estimant-ne l'absorció i, per últim, calculant-ne el risc mitjançant la odds ratio (probabilitat de patir la malaltia dividit per la probabilitat de no desenvolupar-la). Per assolir-ho és vital l'acurada estimació de l'exposició de la població a aquests productes, ja que, tot i que l'aigua de xarxa és una exposició ubiqua i, per tant, ambiental, hi ha persones més exposades que d'altres. Comparant els nivells de trihalometans arreu d'Espanya, la qualitat de l'aigua de consum varia molt als diferents llocs d'estudi, essent Barcelona la de pitjor qualitat ambiental i Guipúscoa la millor. La primera estimació al risc (l'estudi oficial, dut a terme pel Centre de Recerca en Epidemiologia Ambiental, no està conclòs) dóna positiu en la majoria d'exposicions, amb l'excepció de l'assistència a piscines durant l'hivern.

Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis andovertreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were:age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population usedmammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools

Avaluació ambiental del cicle del nitrògen a Catalunya: evolució 1997-2003

Aquesta memòria és un estudi sobre l’avaluació ambiental del nitrogen a Catalunya, tot analitzant l’evolució que aquest element tant important ha tingut des del 1997 al 2003 en el nostre país

Avaluació de l'eficiència, eficàcia i equitat dels projectes de cooperació de caire ambiental de la UdG a Nicaragua

Estudi sobre l'avaluació de l'eficiència, eficàcia i equitat dels projectes de cooperacio de caire ambiental de la UdG a Nicaragua

Avaluació de l’ estat ambiental de la Riera d’Aubi i propostes de millora

Aquest projecte pretén desenvolupar una proposta d’índexs ambientals per a l’avaluació de l’estat ecològic de la riera de l’Aubi; avaluar l’estat ambiental, classificar els diferents trams, identificar els punts crítics i definir les propostes de millora ambiental per a la riera d’Aubi. La riera de l’ Aubi es troba entre els termes municipals de Mont-ras, Palafrugell i Palamós, a les comarques del Baix Empordà i Gironès

Biomechanical wall properties of human intracranial aneurysms resected following surgical clipping (IRRAs Project)

Background and purpose: Individual rupture risk assessment of intracranial aneurysms is a major issue in the clinical management of asymptomatic aneurysms. Aneurysm rupture occurs when wall tension exceeds the strength limit of the wall tissue. At present, aneurysmal wall mechanics are poorly understood and thus, risk assessment involving mechanical properties is inexistent. Aneurysm computational hemodynamics studies make the assumption of rigid walls, an arguable simplification. We therefore aim to assess mechanical properties of ruptured and unruptured intracranial aneurysms in order to provide the foundation for future patient-specific aneurysmal risk assessment. This work also challenges some of the currently held hypotheses in computational flow hemodynamics research. Methods: A specific conservation protocol was applied to aneurysmal tissues following clipping and resection in order to preserve their mechanical properties. Sixteen intracranial aneurysms (11 female, 5 male) underwent mechanical uniaxial stress tests under physiological conditions, temperature, and saline isotonic solution. These represented 11 unruptured and 5 ruptured aneurysms. Stress/strain curves were then obtained for each sample, and a fitting algorithm was applied following a 3-parameter (C(10), C(01), C(11)) Mooney-Rivlin hyperelastic model. Each aneurysm was classified according to its biomechanical properties and (un)rupture status.Results: Tissue testing demonstrated three main tissue classes: Soft, Rigid, and Intermediate. All unruptured aneurysms presented a more Rigid tissue than ruptured or pre-ruptured aneurysms within each gender subgroup. Wall thickness was not correlated to aneurysmal status (ruptured/unruptured). An Intermediate subgroup of unruptured aneurysms with softer tissue characteristic was identified and correlated with multiple documented risk factors of rupture. Conclusion: There is a significant modification in biomechanical properties between ruptured aneurysm, presenting a soft tissue and unruptured aneurysms, presenting a rigid material. This finding strongly supports the idea that a biomechanical risk factor based assessment should be utilized in the to improve the therapeutic decision making.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

El Lloc dels riscos naturals als Annales de Géographie (1891-1991)

L'étude des risques naturels est devenu un sujet de débat entre les géographes physiques français, de plus en plus conscients de l'exposition croissante des sociétés aux risques naturels et du besoin d'évaluer leurs compétences et leurs moyens d'intervention. Mais l'étude des risques naturels a aussi été un sujet récurrent dans l'histoire de la géographie française. Cet article prétend être une approche au traitement qu'a reçu ce thème dans les Annales de Géographie depuis sa création jusqu'h aujourd’hui. Après avoir distingué trois étapes (1891-1930, 1930-1975 et 1975-1991) on a établi les rapports existants entre les différents moments de la géographie française et l'étude des risques naturels et on a analysé autant le contenu des notices sur les divers évènements catastrophiques que les travaux des auteurs les plus représentatifs. I1 s'agit, en résumé, de proposer une réflexion sur la façon dont la géographie française a abordé ce sujet

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

A flood geodatabase and its climatological applications: the case of Catalonia for the last century

Floods are the natural hazards that produce the highest number of casualties and material damage in the Western Mediterranean. An improvement in flood risk assessment and study of a possible increase in flooding occurrence are therefore needed. To carry out these tasks it is important to have at our disposal extensive knowledge on historical floods and to find an efficient way to manage this geographical data. In this paper we present a complete flood database spanning the 20th century for the whole of Catalonia (NE Spain), which includes documentary information (affected areas and damage) and instrumental information (meteorological and hydrological records). This geodatabase, named Inungama, has been implemented on a GIS (Geographical Information System) in order to display all the information within a given geographical scenario, as well as to carry out an analysis thereof using queries, overlays and calculus. Following a description of the type and amount of information stored in the database and the structure of the information system, the first applications of Inungama are presented. The geographical distribution of floods shows the localities which are more likely to be flooded, confirming that the most affected municipalities are the most densely populated ones in coastal areas. Regarding the existence of an increase in flooding occurrence, a temporal analysis has been carried out, showing a steady increase over the last 30 years.

La probabilidad de supervivencia en un modelo con reaseguro proporcional de umbral

[spa] En este artículo presentamos una nueva estrategia de reaseguro, a la que denominamos estrategia de reaseguro umbral, que actúa de forma diferente en función del nivel de las reservas. Así, para unos niveles de las reservas inferiores a un determinado nivel, el gestor decide aplicar un reaseguro proporcional, y para niveles superiores, al considerar que se ha alcanzado cierta solvencia en la cartera, opta por no ceder ningún porcentaje del riesgo. El análisis del efecto de la introducción del reaseguro umbral sobre la probabilidad de supervivencia, y su comparación con el reaseguro proporcional y la opción de no reasegurar, nos permite hallar estrategias de reaseguro equivalentes desde el punto de vista de la solvencia. Palabras clave: teoría del riesgo, reaseguro de umbral, reaseguro proporcional, probabilidad de supervivencia.