Agreement in interpersonal perception as a predictor of group performance

The present work deals with quantifying group characteristics. Specifically, dyadic measures of interpersonal perceptions were used to forecast group performance. 46 groups of students, 24 of four and 22 of five people, were studied in a real educational assignment context and marks were gathered as an indicator of group performance. Our results show that dyadic measures of interpersonal perceptions account for final marks. By means of linear regression analysis 85% and 85.6% of group performance was respectively explained for group sizes equal to four and five. Results found in the scientific literature based on the individualistic approach are no larger than 18%. The results of the present study support the utility of dyadic approaches for predicting group performance in social contexts.

Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

Deposition and residues of azoxystrobin and imidacloprid on greenhouse lettuce with implications for human consumption

Lettuce greenhouse experiments were carried out from March to June 2011 in order to analyze how pesticides behave from the time of application until their intake via human consumption taking into account the primary distribution of pesticides, field dissipation, and post-harvest processing. In addition, experimental conditions were used to evaluate a new dynamic plant uptake model comparing its results with the experimentally derived residues. One application of imidacloprid and two of azoxystrobin were conducted. For evaluating primary pesticide distribution, two approaches based on leaf area index and vegetation cover were used and results were compared with those obtained from a tracer test. High influence of lettuce density, growth stage and type of sprayer was observed in primary distribution showing that low densities or early growth stages implied high losses of pesticides on soil. Washed and unwashed samples of lettuce were taken and analyzed from application to harvest to evaluate removal of pesticides by food processing. Results show that residues found on the Spanish preharvest interval days were in all cases below officially set maximum residue limits, although it was observed that time between application and harvest is as important for residues as application amounts. An overall reduction of 40–60% of pesticides residues was obtained from washing lettuce. Experimentally derived residues were compared with modeled residues and deviate from 1.2 to 1.4 for imidacloprid and azoxystrobin, respectively, presenting good model predictions. Resulting human intake fractions range from... for imidacloprid to ... for azoxystrobin.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Application of ultrasound in bone surgery: two case reports

The present study describes some of the applications of ultrasound in bone surgery, based on the presentation of two clinical cases. The Piezosurgery® ultrasound device was used (Tecnología Mectron Medical, Carasco, Italy). In one case the instrument was used to harvest a chin bone graft for placement in a bone defect at level 1.2, while in the other case a bony window osteotomy was made in the external wall of the maxillary sinus, in the context of a sinus membrane lift procedure. The Piezosurgery® device produces specific ultrasound frequency modulation (25-29 kHz), and has been designed to secure increased precision in application to bone surgery. This instrument produces selective sectioning of the mineralized bone structures, and causes less intra- and postoperative bleeding. One of the advantages of the Piezosurgery® device is that it can be used for maxillary sinus lift procedures in dental implant placement. In this context it considerably lessens the risk of sinus mucosa laceration by preparing the bony window in the external wall of the upper maxilla, and can be used to complete the lifting maneuver. The use of ultrasound in application to hard tissues can be regarded as a slow technique compared with the conventional rotary instruments, since it requires special surgical skill and involves a certain learning curve.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Adult sampling and larva rearing of the cork oak pest Coraebus undatus (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

Coraebus undatus is the main insect pest of cork oak worldwide. The larvae tunnel in the cortical cambium filling the bark with galleries and causing the cork to break at harvest. The first objective of this study was to test the effect of purple traps in the attraction of C. undatus because this colour is attractive to other buprestid beetles. The second objective was to develop a diet in which field-collected larvae could be reared to adulthood. Pairs of purple and clear (control) sticky traps were placed in a cork oak forest in Girona, Spain in the summer of 2008

Evaluation of an electronic nose to assess fruit ripeness

The main goal of our study was to see whether an artificial olfactory system can be used as a nondestructive instrument to measure fruit maturity. In order to make an objective comparison, samples measured with our electronic nose prototype were later characterized using fruit quality techniques. The cultivars chosen for the study were peaches, nectarines, apples, and pears. With peaches and nectarines, a PCA analysis on the electronic nose measurements helped to guess optimal harvest dates that were in good agreement with the ones obtained with fruit quality techniques. A good correlation between sensor signals and some fruit quality indicators was also found. With pears, the study addressed the possibility of classifying samples regarding their ripeness state after different cold storage and shelf-life periods. A PCA analysis showed good separation between samples measured after a shelf-life period of seven days and samples with four or less days. Finally, the electronic nose monitored the shelf-life ripening of apples. A good correlation between electronic nose signals and firmness, starch index, and acidity parameters was found. These results prove that electronic noses have the potential of becoming a reliable instrument to assess fruit ripeness.

Prediction of crude protein and classification of the growth stage of wheat plant samples from NIR spectra

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to analyse the crude protein content of dried and milled samples of wheat and to discriminate samples according to their stage of growth. A calibration set of 72 samples from three growth stages of wheat (tillering, heading and harvest) and a validation set of 28 samples was collected for this purpose. Principal components analysis (PCA) of the calibration set discriminated groups of samples according to the growth stage of the wheat. Based on these differences, a classification procedure (SIMCA) showed a very accurate classification of the validation set samples : all of them were successfully classified in each group using this procedure when both the residual and the leverage were used in the classification criteria. Looking only at the residuals all the samples were also correctly classified except one of tillering stage that was assigned to both tillering and heading stages. Finally, the determination of the crude protein content of these samples was considered in two ways: building up a global model for all the growth stages, and building up local models for each stage, separately. The best prediction results for crude protein were obtained using a global model for samples in the two first growth stages (tillering and heading), and using a local model for the harvest stage samples.

Current status of pediatric home enteral nutrition in Spain: The importance of the NEPAD register

Home enteral nutrition (HEN) is a type of enteral nutrition (EN) which is becoming progressively more widespread in pediatrics due to the benefits it affords to patients, their families and to reducing hospital costs. However, the true extent of its use is unknown in Spain as the data-base set up for this purpose is still underused (Registro de Nutrición Enteral Pediátrica Ambulatoria y Domiciliaria -NEPAD-). More thorough registration of patients in the NEPAD online register will provide information about the characteristics of HEN in Spain: prevalence, diagnosis, the population sector being administered HEN, complications and developments. Likewise, forecast and planning of the necessary resources could be made while those in use could be analysed.

Evaluating the Performance of a Regional-Scale Photochemical Modelling System: Part I Ozone Predictions

We present a detailed evaluation of the seasonal performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system and the PSU/NCAR meteorological model coupled to a new Numerical Emission Model for Air Quality (MNEQA). The combined system simulates air quality at a fine resolution (3 km as horizontal resolution and 1 h as temporal resolution) in north-eastern Spain, where problems of ozone pollution are frequent. An extensive database compiled over two periods, from May to September 2009 and 2010, is used to evaluate meteorological simulations and chemical outputs. Our results indicate that the model accurately reproduces hourly and 1-h and 8-h maximum ozone surface concentrations measured at the air quality stations, as statistical values fall within the EPA and EU recommendations. However, to further improve forecast accuracy, three simple bias-adjustment techniques mean subtraction (MS), ratio adjustment (RA), and hybrid forecast (HF) based on 10 days of available comparisons are applied. The results show that the MS technique performed better than RA or HF, although all the bias-adjustment techniques significantly reduce the systematic errors in ozone forecasts.

The effects of depleted, current and elevated growth [CO2] in wheat are modulated by water availability

Drought is the main constraint on wheat yield in Mediterranean conditions. The photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence and plant growth parameters of durum wheat (Triticum turgidum, L. var. durum) were compared at three [CO2] (i.e., depleted 260 ppm, current 400ppm and elevated 700 ppm) in plants subjected to twowater regimes (i.e.,well-wateredWW, and mildwater stress by drought orwater deficit WS), during pre-anthesis, post-anthesis and the end of grain filling. We showed that [CO2] effects on plants are modulated by water availability. Plants at depleted [CO2] showed photosynthetic acclimation (i.e., up-regulation) and reduced plant biomass and Harvest Index, but depleted [CO2] combined with WS has a more negative impact on plants with decreases in C assimilation and biomass. Plants at elevated [CO2] had decreased plant growth and photosynthesis in response to a down-regulation mechanism resulting from a decrease in Rubisco and N content, but plants exposed to a combination of elevated [CO2] and WS were the most negatively affected (e.g., on plant biomass).

Comparative performance of the stable isotope signatures of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen in assessing early vigour and grain yield in durum wheat

The present paper studied the performance of the stable isotope signatures of carbon (δ13C), nitrogen (δ15N) and oxygen (δ18O) in plants when used to assess early vigour and grain yield (GY) in durum wheat growing under mild and moderate Mediterranean stress conditions. A collection of 114 recombinant inbred lines was grown under rainfed (RF) and supplementary irrigation (IR) conditions. Broad sense heritabilities (H2) for GY and harvest index (HI) were higher under RF conditions than under IR. Broad sense heritabilities for δ13C were always above 0·60, regardless of the plant part studied, with similar values for IR and RF trials. Some of the largest genetic correlations with GY were those shown by the δ13C content of the flag leaf blade and mature grains. Under both water treatments, mature grains showed the highest negative correlations between δ13C and GY across genotypes. Flag leaf δ13C was negatively correlated with GY only under RF conditions. The δ13C in seedlings was negatively correlated, under IR conditions only, with GY but also with early vigour. The sources of variation in early vigour were studied by stepwise analysis using the stable isotope signatures measured in seedlings. The δ13C was able to explain almost 0·20 of this variation under RF, but up to 0·30 under IR. In addition, nitrogen concentration in seedlings accounted for another 0·05 of variation, increasing the amount explained to 0·35. The sources of variation in GY were also studied through stable isotope signatures and biomass of different plant parts: δ13C was always the first parameter to appear in the models for both water conditions, explaining c. 0·20 of the variation. The second parameter (δ15N or N concentration of grain, or biomass at maturity) depended on the water conditions and the plant tissue being analysed. Oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) was only able to explain a small amount of the variation in GY. In this regard, despite the known and previously described value of δ13C as a tool in breeding, δ15N is confirmed as an additional tool in the present study. Oxygen isotope composition does not seem to offer any potential, at least under the conditions of the present study.