Comparative gene finding in chicken indicates that we are closing in on the set of multi-exonic widely-expressed human genes

The recent availability of the chicken genome sequence poses the question of whether there are human protein-coding genes conserved in chicken that are currently not included in the human gene catalog. Here, we show, using comparative gene finding followed by experimental verification of exon pairs by RT–PCR, that the addition to the multi-exonic subset of this catalog could be as little as 0.2%, suggesting that we may be closing in on the human gene set. Our protocol, however, has two shortcomings: (i) the bioinformatic screening of the predicted genes, applied to filter out false positives, cannot handle intronless genes; and (ii) the experimental verification could fail to identify expression at a specific developmental time. This highlights the importance of developing methods that could provide a reliable estimate of the number of these two types of genes.

Automatic low baseline stereo in urban areas

In this work we propose a new automatic methodology for computing accurate digital elevation models (DEMs) in urban environments from low baseline stereo pairs that shall be available in the future from a new kind of earth observation satellite. This setting makes both views of the scene similarly, thus avoiding occlusions and illumination changes, which are the main disadvantages of the commonly accepted large-baseline configuration. There still remain two crucial technological challenges: (i) precisely estimating DEMs with strong discontinuities and (ii) providing a statistically proven result, automatically. The first one is solved here by a piecewise affine representation that is well adapted to man-made landscapes, whereas the application of computational Gestalt theory introduces reliability and automation. In fact this theory allows us to reduce the number of parameters to be adjusted, and tocontrol the number of false detections. This leads to the selection of a suitable segmentation into affine regions (whenever possible) by a novel and completely automatic perceptual grouping method. It also allows us to discriminate e.g. vegetation-dominated regions, where such an affine model does not apply anda more classical correlation technique should be preferred. In addition we propose here an extension of the classical ”quantized” Gestalt theory to continuous measurements, thus combining its reliability with the precision of variational robust estimation and fine interpolation methods that are necessary in the low baseline case. Such an extension is very general and will be useful for many other applications as well.

Análisis comparativo del monólogo interior de dos fragmentos modernistas

Este trabajo consiste en un análisis comparativo del monólogo interior de dos fragmentos modernistas pertenecientes a The Waves de Virginia Woolf y Ulysses de James Joyce. Asimismo, se contextualizan las dos obras y se definen conceptos relacionados con el monólogo interior, como, el stream of consciousness o el soliloquio.

Non-Quasi-Competitiveness and Stability in Cournot's Model

This paper retakes previous work of the authors, about the relationship between non-quasi-competitiveness (the increase in price caused by an increase in the number of oligopolists) and stability of the equilibrium in the classical Cournot oligopoly model. Though it has been widely accepted in the literature that the loss of quasi-competitiveness is linked, in the long run as new firms entered the market, to instability of the model, the authors in their previous work put forward a model in which a situation of monopoly changed to duopoly losing quasi-competitiveness but maintaining the stability of the equilibrium. That model could not, at the time, be extended to any number of oligopolists. The present paper exhibits such an extension. An oligopoly model is shown in which the loss of quasi-competitiveness resists the presence in the market of as many firms as one wishes and where the successive Cournot's equilibrium points are unique and asymptotically stable. In this way, for the first time, the conjecture that non-quasi- competitiveness and instability were equivalent in the long run, is proved false.

The Standard Biplot

Biplots are graphical displays of data matrices based on the decomposition of a matrix as the product of two matrices. Elements of these two matrices are used as coordinates for the rows and columns of the data matrix, with an interpretation of the joint presentation that relies on the properties of the scalar product. Because the decomposition is not unique, there are several alternative ways to scale the row and column points of the biplot, which can cause confusion amongst users, especially when software packages are not united in their approach to this issue. We propose a new scaling of the solution, called the standard biplot, which applies equally well to a wide variety of analyses such as correspondence analysis, principal component analysis, log-ratio analysis and the graphical results of a discriminant analysis/MANOVA, in fact to any method based on the singular-value decomposition. The standard biplot also handles data matrices with widely different levels of inherent variance. Two concepts taken from correspondence analysis are important to this idea: the weighting of row and column points, and the contributions made by the points to the solution. In the standard biplot one set of points, usually the rows of the data matrix, optimally represent the positions of the cases or sample units, which are weighted and usually standardized in some way unless the matrix contains values that are comparable in their raw form. The other set of points, usually the columns, is represented in accordance with their contributions to the low-dimensional solution. As for any biplot, the projections of the row points onto vectors defined by the column points approximate the centred and (optionally) standardized data. The method is illustrated with several examples to demonstrate how the standard biplot copes in different situations to give a joint map which needs only one common scale on the principal axes, thus avoiding the problem of enlarging or contracting the scale of one set of points to make the biplot readable. The proposal also solves the problem in correspondence analysis of low-frequency categories that are located on the periphery of the map, giving the false impression that they are important.

Stepwise multiple testing as formalized data snooping

It is common in econometric applications that several hypothesis tests arecarried out at the same time. The problem then becomes how to decide whichhypotheses to reject, accounting for the multitude of tests. In this paper,we suggest a stepwise multiple testing procedure which asymptoticallycontrols the familywise error rate at a desired level. Compared to relatedsingle-step methods, our procedure is more powerful in the sense that itoften will reject more false hypotheses. In addition, we advocate the useof studentization when it is feasible. Unlike some stepwise methods, ourmethod implicitly captures the joint dependence structure of the teststatistics, which results in increased ability to detect alternativehypotheses. We prove our method asymptotically controls the familywise errorrate under minimal assumptions. We present our methodology in the context ofcomparing several strategies to a common benchmark and deciding whichstrategies actually beat the benchmark. However, our ideas can easily beextended and/or modied to other contexts, such as making inference for theindividual regression coecients in a multiple regression framework. Somesimulation studies show the improvements of our methods over previous proposals. We also provide an application to a set of real data.

Price increase and stability with new entries in Cournot markets

It is widely accepted in the literature about the classicalCournot oligopoly model that the loss of quasi competitiveness is linked,in the long run as new firms enter the market, to instability of the equilibrium. In this paper, though, we present a model in which a stableunique symmetric equilibrium is reached for any number of oligopolistsas industry price increases with each new entry. Consequently, the suspicion that non quasi competitiveness implies, in the long run, instabilityis proved false.

Contribution biplots

In order to interpret the biplot it is necessary to know which points usually variables are the ones that are important contributors to the solution, and this information is available separately as part of the biplot s numerical results. We propose a new scaling of the display, called the contribution biplot, which incorporates this diagnostic directly into the graphical display, showing visually the important contributors and thus facilitating the biplot interpretation and often simplifying the graphical representation considerably. The contribution biplot can be applied to a wide variety of analyses such as correspondence analysis, principal component analysis, log-ratio analysis and the graphical results of a discriminant analysis/MANOVA, in fact to any method based on the singular-value decomposition. In the contribution biplot one set of points, usually the rows of the data matrix, optimally represent the spatial positions of the cases or sample units, according to some distance measure that usually incorporates some form of standardization unless all data are comparable in scale. The other set of points, usually the columns, is represented by vectors that are related to their contributions to the low-dimensional solution. A fringe benefit is that usually only one common scale for row and column points is needed on the principal axes, thus avoiding the problem of enlarging or contracting the scale of one set of points to make the biplot legible. Furthermore, this version of the biplot also solves the problem in correspondence analysis of low-frequency categories that are located on the periphery of the map, giving the false impression that they are important, when they are in fact contributing minimally to the solution.

Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

A note on robust detection

We introduce a simple new hypothesis testing procedure, which,based on an independent sample drawn from a certain density, detects which of $k$ nominal densities is the true density is closest to, under the total variation (L_{1}) distance. Weobtain a density-free uniform exponential bound for the probability of false detection.

Reputation and honesty in a market for information

Previous works on asymmetric information in asset markets tendto focus on the potential gains in the asset market itself. We focus on the market for information and conduct an experimental study to explore, in a game of finite but uncertain duration, whether reputation can be an effective constraint on deliberate misinformation. At the beginning of each period, an uninformed potential asset buyer can purchase information, at a fixed price and from a fully-informed source, about the value of the asset in that period. The informational insiders cannot purchase the asset and are given short-term incentives to provide false information when the asset value is low. Our model predicts that, in accordance with the Folk Theorem, Pareto-superior outcomes featuring truthful revelation should be sustainable. However, this depends critically on beliefs about rationality and behavior. We find that, overall, sellers are truthful 89% of the time. More significantly, the observed frequency of truthfulness is 81% when the asset value is low. Our result is consistent with both mixed-strategy and trigger strategy interpretations and provides evidence that most subjects correctly anticipate rational behavior. We discuss applications to financial markets, media regulation, and the stability of cartels.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Statistical analysis and modelling of weather radar beam propagation conditions in the Po Valley (Italy)

Ground clutter caused by anomalous propagation (anaprop) can affect seriously radar rain rate estimates, particularly in fully automatic radar processing systems, and, if not filtered, can produce frequent false alarms. A statistical study of anomalous propagation detected from two operational C-band radars in the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna is discussed, paying particular attention to its diurnal and seasonal variability. The analysis shows a high incidence of anaprop in summer, mainly in the morning and evening, due to the humid and hot summer climate of the Po Valley, particularly in the coastal zone. Thereafter, a comparison between different techniques and datasets to retrieve the vertical profile of the refractive index gradient in the boundary layer is also presented. In particular, their capability to detect anomalous propagation conditions is compared. Furthermore, beam path trajectories are simulated using a multilayer ray-tracing model and the influence of the propagation conditions on the beam trajectory and shape is examined. High resolution radiosounding data are identified as the best available dataset to reproduce accurately the local propagation conditions, while lower resolution standard TEMP data suffers from interpolation degradation and Numerical Weather Prediction model data (Lokal Model) are able to retrieve a tendency to superrefraction but not to detect ducting conditions. Observing the ray tracing of the centre, lower and upper limits of the radar antenna 3-dB half-power main beam lobe it is concluded that ducting layers produce a change in the measured volume and in the power distribution that can lead to an additional error in the reflectivity estimate and, subsequently, in the estimated rainfall rate.

Application of fuzzy-rule-based postprocessing to correlation methods in pattern recognition

One of the most important problems in optical pattern recognition by correlation is the appearance of sidelobes in the correlation plane, which causes false alarms. We present a method that eliminate sidelobes of up to a given height if certain conditions are satisfied. The method can be applied to any generalized synthetic discriminant function filter and is capable of rejecting lateral peaks that are even higher than the central correlation. Satisfactory results were obtained in both computer simulations and optical implementation.