World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Stochastic evolution of rules for playing normal form games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments ofstochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal formgames that arise. It is shown that many of the folk results of evolutionary game theory typically obtained witha fixed game and fixed strategies carry over to the present case. The results are also related to recent experimentson rules and games.

The evolution of inequity in the access to health care in Spain: 1987-2001

This paper reports an analysis of the evolution of equity in access to health care in Spain over the period 1987-2001, a time span covering the development of the modern Spanish National Health System. Our measures of access are the probabilities of visiting a doctor, using emergency services and being hospitalised. For these three measures we obtain indices of horizontal inequity from microeconometric models of utilization that exploit the individual information in the Spanish National Health Surveys of 1987 and 2001. We find that by 2001 the system has improved in the sense that differences in income no longer lead to different access given the same level of need. However, the tenure of private health insurance leads to differences in access given the same level of need, and its contribution to inequity has increased over time, both because insurance is more concentrated among the rich and because the elasticity of utilization for the three services has increased too.

The evolution of recent research on Catalan literature through the production of PhD theses: a bibliometric and social network analysis

Introduction. This paper studies the situation of research on Catalan literature between 1976 and 2003 by carrying out a bibliometric and social network analysis of PhD theses defended in Spain. It has a dual aim: to present interesting results for the discipline and to demonstrate the methodological efficacy of scientometric tools in the humanities, a field in which they are often neglected due to the difficulty of gathering data. Method. The analysis was performed on 151 records obtained from the TESEO database of PhD theses. The quantitative estimates include the use of the UCINET and Pajek software packages. Authority control was performed on the records. Analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the sample and the distribution of responses to each question. Sex differences on key questions were analysed using the Chi-squared test. Results. The value of the figures obtained is demonstrated. The information obtained on the topic and the periods studied in the theses, and on the actors involved (doctoral students, thesis supervisors and members of defence committees), provide important insights into the mechanisms of humanities disciplines. The main research tendencies of Catalan literature are identified. It is observed that the composition of members of the thesis defence committees follows Lotka's Law. Conclusions. Bibliometric analysis and social network analysis may be especially useful in the humanities and in other fields which are lacking in scientometric data in comparison with the experimental sciences.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

The fossil record and evolution of freshwater plants: A review

Palaeobotany applied to freshwater plants is an emerging field of palaeontology. Hydrophytic plants reveal evolutionary trends of their own, clearly distinct from those of the terrestrial and marine flora. During the Precambrian, two groups stand out in the fossil record of freshwater plants: the Cyanobacteria (stromatolites) in benthic environments and the prasinophytes (leiosphaeridian acritarchs) in transitional planktonic environments. During the Palaeozoic, green algae (Chlorococcales, Zygnematales, charophytes and some extinct groups) radiated and developed the widest range of morphostructural patterns known for these groups. Between the Permian and Early Cretaceous, charophytes dominated macrophytic associations, with the consequence that over tens of millions of years, freshwater flora bypassed the dominance of vascular plants on land. During the Early Cretaceous, global extension of the freshwater environments is associated with diversification of the flora, including new charophyte families and the appearance of aquatic angiosperms and ferns for the first time. Mesozoic planktonic assemblages retained their ancestral composition that was dominated by coenobial Chlorococcales, until the appearance of freshwater dinoflagellates in the Early Cretaceous. In the Late Cretaceous, freshwater angiosperms dominated almost all macrophytic communities worldwide. The Tertiary was characterised by the diversification of additional angiosperm and aquatic fern lineages, which resulted in the first differentiation of aquatic plant biogeoprovinces. Phytoplankton also diversified during the Eocene with the development of freshwater diatoms and chrysophytes. Diatoms, which were exclusively marine during tens of millions of years, were dominant over the Chlorococcales during Neogene and in later assemblages. During the Quaternary, aquatic plant communities suffered from the effects of eutrophication, paludification and acidification, which were the result of the combined impact of glaciation and anthropogenic disturbance.

The non-LTR retrotransposons in Ciona intestinalis: new insights into the evolution of chordate genomes

Background: Non-long terminal repeat (non-LTR) retrotransposons have contributed to shaping the structure and function of genomes. In silico and experimental approaches have been used to identify the non-LTR elements of the urochordate Ciona intestinalis. Knowledge of the types and abundance of non-LTR elements in urochordates is a key step in understanding their contribution to the structure and function of vertebrate genomes. Results: Consensus elements phylogenetically related to the I, LINE1, LINE2, LOA and R2 elements of the 14 eukaryotic non-LTR clades are described from C. intestinalis. The ascidian elements showed conservation of both the reverse transcriptase coding sequence and the overall structural organization seen in each clade. The apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease and nucleic-acid-binding domains encoded upstream of the reverse transcriptase, and the RNase H and the restriction enzyme-like endonuclease motifs encoded downstream of the reverse transcriptase were identified in the corresponding Ciona families. Conclusions: The genome of C. intestinalis harbors representatives of at least five clades of non-LTR retrotransposons. The copy number per haploid genome of each element is low, less than 100, far below the values reported for vertebrate counterparts but within the range for protostomes. Genomic and sequence analysis shows that the ascidian non-LTR elements are unmethylated and flanked by genomic segments with a gene density lower than average for the genome. The analysis provides valuable data for understanding the evolution of early chordate genomes and enlarges the view on the distribution of the non-LTR retrotransposons in eukaryotes.

Genesis and evolution of the Evx and Mox genes and the extended Hox and ParaHox gene clusters

Background: Hox and ParaHox gene clusters are thought to have resulted from the duplication of a ProtoHox gene cluster early in metazoan evolution. However, the origin and evolution of the other genes belonging to the extended Hox group of homeobox-containing genes, that is, Mox and Evx, remains obscure. We constructed phylogenetic trees with mouse, amphioxus and Drosophila extended Hox and other related Antennapedia-type homeobox gene sequences and analyzed the linkage data available for such genes.Results: We claim that neither Mox nor Evx is a Hox or ParaHox gene. We propose a scenariothat reconciles phylogeny with linkage data, in which an Evx/Mox ancestor gene linked to aProtoHox cluster was involved in a segmental tandem duplication event that generated an arrayof all Hox-like genes, referred to as the `coupled¿ cluster. A chromosomal breakage within thiscluster explains the current composition of the extended Hox cluster (with Evx, Hox and Moxgenes) and the ParaHox cluster.Conclusions: Most studies dealing with the origin and evolution of Hox and ParaHox clustershave not included the Hox-related genes Mox and Evx. Our phylogenetic analyses and theavailable linkage data in mammalian genomes support an evolutionary scenario in which anancestor of Evx and Mox was linked to the ProtoHox cluster, and that a tandem duplication of alarge genomic region early in metazoan evolution generated the Hox and ParaHox clusters, plusthe cluster-neighbors Evx and Mox. The large `coupled¿ Hox-like cluster EvxHox/MoxParaHox wassubsequently broken, thus grouping the Mox and Evx genes to the Hox clusters, and isolating theParaHox cluster.

Thermal evolution of gene expression profiles in Drosophila subobscura

Background: Despite its pervasiveness, the genetic basis of adaptation resulting in variation directly or indirectly related to temperature (climatic) gradients is poorly understood. By using 3-fold replicated laboratory thermal stocks covering much of the physiologically tolerable temperature range for the temperate (i.e., cold tolerant) species Drosophila subobscura we have assessed whole-genome transcriptional responses after three years of thermal adaptation, when the populations had already diverged for inversion frequencies, pre-adult life history components, and morphological traits. Total mRNA from each population was compared to a reference pool mRNA in a standard, highly replicated two-colour competitive hybridization experiment using cDNA microarrays.Results: A total of 306 (6.6%) cDNA clones were identified as 'differentially expressed' (following a false discovery rate correction) after contrasting the two furthest apart thermal selection regimes (i.e., 13°C vs . 22°C), also including four previously reported candidate genes for thermotolerance in Drosophila (Hsp26, Hsp68, Fst, and Treh). On the other hand, correlated patterns of gene expression were similar in cold- and warm-adapted populations. Analysis of functional categories defined by the Gene Ontology project point to an overrepresentation of genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism, nucleic acids metabolism and regulation of transcription among other categories. Although the location of differently expressed genes was approximately at random with respect to chromosomes, a physical mapping of 88 probes to the polytene chromosomes of D. subobscura has shown that a larger than expected number mapped inside inverted chromosomal segments.Conclusion: Our data suggest that a sizeable number of genes appear to be involved in thermal adaptation in Drosophila, with a substantial fraction implicated in metabolism. This apparently illustrates the formidable challenge to understanding the adaptive evolution of complex trait variation. Furthermore, some clustering of genes within inverted chromosomal sections was detected. Disentangling the effects of inversions will be obviously required in any future approach if we want to identify the relevant candidate genes.

Clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures: influence of additional pelvic fractures

To evaluate the clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures in relation to the scintigraphic pattern and the presence of additional pelvic fractures. METHODS--This was a retrospective study of 14 patients with sacral fractures. RESULTS--Six patients had additional pelvic fractures. Four bone scintigraphic patterns were found. The resolution of symptoms was longer in patients with associated pelvic fractures (30 weeks v three weeks). No relation was found between the bone scintigraphic pattern and the time of evolution. CONCLUSION--Associated pelvic fractures delay the resolution of symptoms in patients with sacral fractures, regardless of scintigraphic pattern.

Clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures: influence of additional pelvic fractures

To evaluate the clinical evolution of sacral stress fractures in relation to the scintigraphic pattern and the presence of additional pelvic fractures. METHODS--This was a retrospective study of 14 patients with sacral fractures. RESULTS--Six patients had additional pelvic fractures. Four bone scintigraphic patterns were found. The resolution of symptoms was longer in patients with associated pelvic fractures (30 weeks v three weeks). No relation was found between the bone scintigraphic pattern and the time of evolution. CONCLUSION--Associated pelvic fractures delay the resolution of symptoms in patients with sacral fractures, regardless of scintigraphic pattern.