A unifying approach to the empirical evaluation of asset pricing models

Two main approaches are commonly used to empirically evaluate linear factor pricingmodels: regression and SDF methods, with centred and uncentred versions of the latter.We show that unlike standard two-step or iterated GMM procedures, single-step estimatorssuch as continuously updated GMM yield numerically identical values for prices of risk,pricing errors, Jensen s alphas and overidentifying restrictions tests irrespective of the modelvalidity. Therefore, there is arguably a single approach regardless of the factors being tradedor not, or the use of excess or gross returns. We illustrate our results by revisiting Lustigand Verdelhan s (2007) empirical analysis of currency returns.

Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Financial development, financial fragility and growth

This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility(namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Keeping up with the Joneses: An international asset pricing model

We derive an international asset pricing model that assumes local investorshave preferences of the type "keeping up with the Joneses." In aninternational setting investors compare their current wealth with that oftheir peers who live in the same country. In the process of inferring thecountry's average wealth, investors incorporate information from the domesticmarket portfolio. In equilibrium, this gives rise to a multifactor CAPMwhere, together with the world market price of risk, there existscountry-speciffic prices of risk associated with deviations from thecountry's average wealth level. The model performs signifficantly better, interms of explaining cross-section of returns, than the international CAPM.Moreover, the results are robust, both for conditional and unconditionaltests, to the inclusion of currency risk, macroeconomic sources of risk andthe Fama and French HML factor.

The transmission of US shocks to Latin America

I study whether and how US shocks are transmitted to eight Latin American countries. US shocks are identified using sign restrictions and treated as exogenous with respect to Latin American economies. Posterior estimates for individual and average effects are constructed. US monetary shocks produce significant fluctuations in Latin America, but real demand and supply shocks do not. Floaters and currency boarders display similar output but different inflation and interest rate responses. The financial channel plays a crucial role in the transmission. US disturbances explain important portions of the variability of LatinAmerican macrovariables, producing continental cyclical fluctuations and, in two episodes, destabilizing nominal exchange rate effects. Policy implications are discussed.

On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to accountfor the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the lastdecade. We study a standard monetary model where the fullyrational expectations assumption is replaced by a formaldefinition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learningis able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized factsobserved during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced byseveral countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being asmall departure from rational expectations, quasi-rationallearning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and itdoes not violate reasonable rationality requirements.

Specialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU

Most optimistic views, based on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) literature, have concluded that the probability of asymmetric shocks to occur at anational level will tend to diminish in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)as a result of the intensification of the integration process during the most recent years. Therefore, since Economic Geography Theories predict a higherspecialisation of regions, it is expected that asymmetric shocks will increase.Previous studies have examined to what extent asymmetric shocks have been relevant in the past using, mainly, static measures of asymmetries such as the correlation coefficients between series of shocks previously calculated from astructural VAR model (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1992).In this paper, we study the evolution of manufacturing specific asymmetries in Europe from a dynamic point of view (applying the modelproposed by Haldane and Hall, 1991) in order to obtain new evidence about potential risks of EMU.

Efectos regionales de la política monetaria : implicaciones para los países de la zona euro

De acuerdo con la teoría de las áreas monetàrias óptimas,los shocks asimétricos tienen un papel fundamental en la determinación de los beneficios y los costes derivados del establecimiento de una área monetaria. En este sentido, diferentes estudios recientes señalan una importante reducción del grado de asimetría de los shocks en términos reales a lo largo de los últimos años entre los países europeos como consecuencia de la mayor coordinación de las políticas económicas y de la aproximación de las estructuras productivas. De todas maneras, una de las cuestiones clave en el nuevo entorno económico, y que no ha sido demasiado considerada a la literatura reciente, es el posible papel desestabilitzador de la política monetaria común como consecuencia de las diferencias en los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en los distintos países y regiones de la Zona Euro. En este trabajo se considera la mencionada cuestión desde un punto de vista teórico y se analiza empíricamente la existencia de diferencias regionales en los efectos de la política monetaria llevada a término en España a lo largo de los últimos años con la finalidad d identificar los principales determinantes de esta asimetría en el ámbito europeo

Efectos regionales de la política monetaria : implicaciones para los países de la zona euro

De acuerdo con la teoría de las áreas monetàrias óptimas,los shocks asimétricos tienen un papel fundamental en la determinación de los beneficios y los costes derivados del establecimiento de una área monetaria. En este sentido, diferentes estudios recientes señalan una importante reducción del grado de asimetría de los shocks en términos reales a lo largo de los últimos años entre los países europeos como consecuencia de la mayor coordinación de las políticas económicas y de la aproximación de las estructuras productivas. De todas maneras, una de las cuestiones clave en el nuevo entorno económico, y que no ha sido demasiado considerada a la literatura reciente, es el posible papel desestabilitzador de la política monetaria común como consecuencia de las diferencias en los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en los distintos países y regiones de la Zona Euro. En este trabajo se considera la mencionada cuestión desde un punto de vista teórico y se analiza empíricamente la existencia de diferencias regionales en los efectos de la política monetaria llevada a término en España a lo largo de los últimos años con la finalidad d identificar los principales determinantes de esta asimetría en el ámbito europeo

Specialisation in Europe and asymmetric shocks: potential risks of EMU

Most optimistic views, based on Optimum Currency Areas (OCA) literature, have concluded that the probability of asymmetric shocks to occur at anational level will tend to diminish in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)as a result of the intensification of the integration process during the most recent years. Therefore, since Economic Geography Theories predict a higherspecialisation of regions, it is expected that asymmetric shocks will increase.Previous studies have examined to what extent asymmetric shocks have been relevant in the past using, mainly, static measures of asymmetries such as the correlation coefficients between series of shocks previously calculated from astructural VAR model (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1992).In this paper, we study the evolution of manufacturing specific asymmetries in Europe from a dynamic point of view (applying the modelproposed by Haldane and Hall, 1991) in order to obtain new evidence about potential risks of EMU.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Relevancia valorativa del resultado global y sus componentes frente al resultado neto

Este trabajo tiene como objeto verificar si el resultado global presenta mayor relevancia valorativa respecto al resultado tradicional, y si es así cuáles son los componentes del resultado global que explican las diferencias. El estudio muestra que el resultado global es una variable relevante tanto para explicar el valor intrínseco de la empresa como para explicar su rentabilidad. Sin embargo, sólo al explicar la rentabilidad el resultado global y su incremento aumentan la relevancia valorativa del resultado neto y su incremento. De los componentes analizados del resultado global, tan sólo los resultados por diferencias de conversión de la moneda extranjera a la moneda de presentación añaden poder explicativo adicional al del resultado neto, aunque sólo en los modelos de rentabilidad. Ni los resultados por valoración de instrumentos financieros a valor razonable con cambios en patrimonio ni los resultados por coberturas de flujos de efectivo aportan un mayor poder explicativo al del resultado neto.

De nuevo sobre la ubicación de la ceca de Iltirke y el Tritetartemorion de Sikarbi/Sikara

Se vuelven a discutir los argumentos a favor y en contra de la adscripción de iltikke como ceca de los ilergetes o de los ilercaones y la incidencia que en su ubicación pueda tener la de sikaibi o sikarh conocida desde 1994.

The Impact of EU Membership on the Economic Governance of Spain

[spa] España no fue admitida en la Comunidad Económica Europea durante el régimen de Franco por razones políticas. Integrarse a la Comunidad Europea en enero de 1986 fue el último peldaño hacia la consolidación definitiva de la democracia en España y de la apertura de su economía.. Los resultados de los veinticinco años como miembro de la UE se han traducido en un impulso sin precedentes de modernización y progreso. España adoptó el “Acervo Comunitario” y recibió considerables beneficios de su integración a la Comunidad, eliminando barreras, siguiendo las políticas comunes, recibiendo fondos europeos y adoptando la moneda europea común. A partir de un nivel del 60% del promedio europeo de renta per capita en 1986, el nivel actual –incluso con la crisis que estalló en 2008- se sitúa en torno al 105 por ciento. Los últimos tres años han sido diferentes y difíciles como consecuencia de la severa crisis económica y financiera.En este contexto este trabajo analiza como los sucesivos gobiernos de España han organizado la gobernanza económica para adaptarla a los cambios cuantitativos y cualitativos que se han ido produciendo en la integración europea.