On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

The effect of intergroup competition on group coordination: An experimental study

We report an experiment on the effect of intergroup competition on group coordination in the minimal-effort game (Van Huyck et al., 1990). The competition was between two 7-person groups. Each player in each group independently chose an integer from 1 to 7. The group with the higher minimum won the competition and each of its members was paid according to the game s original payoff matrix. Members of the losing group were paid nothing. In case of a tie, each player was paid half the payoff in the original matrix. This treatment was contrasted with two control treatments where each of the two groups played an independent coordination game, either with or without information about the minimum chosen by the outgroup. Although the intergroup competition does not change the set of strict equilibria, we found that it improved collective rationality by moving group members in the direction of higher-payoff equilibria. Merely providing group members with information about the minimal-effort level in the other group was not sufficient to generate this effect.

Ex post bargaining, labor coordination and wage formation at the firm level

We lay out a model of wage bargaining with two leading features:bargaining is ex post to relevant investments and there isindividual bargaining in firms without a Union. We compareindividual ex post bargaining to coordinated ex post bargainingand we analyze the effects on wage formation. As opposed to exante bargaining models, the costs of destroying the employmentrelationship play a crucial role in determining wages. Highfiring costs in particular yield a rent for employees. Ourtheory points to a employer size-wage effect that is independentof the production function and market power. We derive a simpleleast squares specification from the theoretical model thatallow us to estimate components of the wage premium fromcoordination. We reject the hypothesis that labor coordinationdoes not alter the extensive form of the bargaining game. Laborcoordination substantially increases bargaining power butdecreases labor's ability to pose costly threats to the firm.

Communication, coordination and efficiency in evolutionary one-population models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuringefficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

On the role of non-equilibrium focal points as coordination devices

Considering a pure coordination game with a large number of equivalentequilibria, we argue, first, that a focal point that is itself not a Nash equilibriumand is Pareto dominated by all Nash equilibria, may attract the players'choices. Second, we argue that such a non-equilibrium focal point may act asan equilibrium selection device that the players use to coordinate on a closelyrelated small subset of Nash equilibria. We present theoretical as well asexperimental support for these two new roles of focal points as coordinationdevices.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Uniformity Study of Amorphous and Microcrystalline Silicon Thin Films Deposited on 10cmx10cm Glass Substrate using Hot Wire CVD Technique

The scaling up of the Hot Wire Chemical Vapor Deposition (HW-CVD) technique to large deposition area can be done using a catalytic net of equal spaced parallel filaments. The large area deposition limit is defined as the limit whenever a further increment of the catalytic net area does not affect the properties of the deposited film. This is the case when a dense catalytic net is spread on a surface considerably larger than that of the film substrate. To study this limit, a system able to hold a net of twelve wires covering a surface of about 20 cm x 20 cm was used to deposit amorphous (a-Si:H) and microcrystalline (μc-Si:H) silicon over a substrate of 10 cm x 10 cm placed at a filament-substrate distance ranging from 1 to 2 cm. The uniformity of the film thickness d and optical constants, n(x, λ) and α(x,¯hω), was studied via transmission measurements. The thin film uniformity as a function of the filament-substrate distance was studied. The experimental thickness profile was compared with the theoretical result obtained solving the diffusion equations. The optimization of the filament-substrate distance allowed obtaining films with inhomogeneities lower than ±2.5% and deposition rates higher than 1 nm/s and 4.5 nm/s for (μc-Si:H) and (a-Si:H), respectively.

Posterior vaginal wall repair with synthetic absorbable mesh: A new technique for and old procedure

The objective of this study was to assess the applicability of posterior wall repair with a synthetic absorbable mesh. Between January and September 1996, five posterior repairs using absorbable synthetic meshes were performed. Five posterior wall repairs in patients matched for age, parity, and rectocele degree were performed according to usual procedures during the same period, and were used as controls. No febrile morbidity, cuff or posterior vaginal wall infections, thrombophlebitis, rectal injury, or hemorrhagic complications were observed in the 10 women who entered the study. In summary, posterior wall repair can be easily performed with an absorbable soft tissue patch, theoretically preserving sexual activity, and probably offers better functional results with longer experience, thus providing a safe and useful procedure in sexually active women.

A first-principles analysis of the magnetism of CuII polynuclear coordination complexes: the case of [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5H2O

The magnetic structure of the [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5 H2Ocrystal - using fractional coordinates determined at room-temperature ¿ has beenanalysed in detail. This analysis has been carried out by extending our first principlesbottom-up theoretical approach, which was initially designed to study through-spacemagnetic interactions, to handle through-bond magnetic interactions. The only input datarequired by this approach are the values of the computed JAB exchange parameters for allthe unique pairs of spin-containing centres. The results allow the magnetic structure ofthe crystal, which presents two types of isolated tetranuclear CuII clusters, to be definedin quantitative terms. Each of these clusters presents ferro and antiferromagneticinteractions, the former being stronger, although outnumbered by the latter. Thecomputed magnetic susceptibility curve shows the same qualitative features as theexperimental data. However, there are small differences that are presumed to beassociated with the use of room-temperature crystal coordinates.

A first-principles analysis of the magnetism of CuII polynuclear coordination complexes: the case of [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5H2O

The magnetic structure of the [Cu4(bpy)4(aspartate)2(H2O)3](ClO4)4·2.5 H2Ocrystal - using fractional coordinates determined at room-temperature ¿ has beenanalysed in detail. This analysis has been carried out by extending our first principlesbottom-up theoretical approach, which was initially designed to study through-spacemagnetic interactions, to handle through-bond magnetic interactions. The only input datarequired by this approach are the values of the computed JAB exchange parameters for allthe unique pairs of spin-containing centres. The results allow the magnetic structure ofthe crystal, which presents two types of isolated tetranuclear CuII clusters, to be definedin quantitative terms. Each of these clusters presents ferro and antiferromagneticinteractions, the former being stronger, although outnumbered by the latter. Thecomputed magnetic susceptibility curve shows the same qualitative features as theexperimental data. However, there are small differences that are presumed to beassociated with the use of room-temperature crystal coordinates.

Magnetism of isolated Mn12 single-molecule magnets detected by magnetic circular dichroism: Observation of spin tunneling with a magneto-optical technique

We report magnetic and magneto-optical measurements of two Mn12 single-molecule magnet derivatives isolated in organic glasses. Field-dependent magnetic circular dichroism (MCD) intensity curves (hysteresis cycles) are found to be essentially identical to superconducting quantum interference device magnetization results and provide experimental evidence for the potential of the optical technique for magnetic characterization. Optical observation of magnetic tunneling has been achieved by studying the decay of the MCD signal at weak applied magnetic field

FAM-MDR: a flexible family-based multifactor dimensionality reduction technique to detect epistasis using related individuals

We propose a novel multifactor dimensionality reduction method for epistasis detection in small or extended pedigrees, FAM-MDR. It combines features of the Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model And Regression approach (GRAMMAR) with Model-Based MDR (MB-MDR). We focus on continuous traits, although the method is general and can be used for outcomes of any type, including binary and censored traits. When comparing FAM-MDR with Pedigree-based Generalized MDR (PGMDR), which is a generalization of Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) to continuous traits and related individuals, FAM-MDR was found to outperform PGMDR in terms of power, in most of the considered simulated scenarios. Additional simulations revealed that PGMDR does not appropriately deal with multiple testing and consequently gives rise to overly optimistic results. FAM-MDR adequately deals with multiple testing in epistasis screens and is in contrast rather conservative, by construction. Furthermore, simulations show that correcting for lower order (main) effects is of utmost importance when claiming epistasis. As Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is a complex phenotype likely influenced by gene-gene interactions, we applied FAM-MDR to examine data on glucose area-under-the-curve (GAUC), an endophenotype of T2DM for which multiple independent genetic associations have been observed, in the Amish Family Diabetes Study (AFDS). This application reveals that FAM-MDR makes more efficient use of the available data than PGMDR and can deal with multi-generational pedigrees more easily. In conclusion, we have validated FAM-MDR and compared it to PGMDR, the current state-of-the-art MDR method for family data, using both simulations and a practical dataset. FAM-MDR is found to outperform PGMDR in that it handles the multiple testing issue more correctly, has increased power, and efficiently uses all available information.

The International Universities Walking Project: Development of a Framework for Workplace Intervention Using the Delphi Technique

Background: This paper aimed to use the Delphi technique to develop a consensus framework for a multinational, workplace walking intervention. Methods: Ideas were gathered and ranked from eight recognized and emerging experts in the fields of physical activity and health, from universities in Australia, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, and Spain. Members of the panel were asked to consider the key characteristics of a successful campus walking intervention. Consensus was reached by an inductive, content analytic approach, conducted through an anonymous, three-round, e-mail process. Results: The resulting framework consisted of three interlinking themes defined as “design, implementation, and evaluation.” Top-ranked subitems in these themes included the need to generate research capacity (design), to respond to group needs through different walking approaches (implementation), and to undertake physical activity assessment (evaluation). Themes were set within an underpinning domain, referred to as the “institution” and sites are currently engaging with subitems in this domain, to provide sustainable interventions that reflect the practicalities of local contexts and needs. Conclusions: Findings provide a unique framework for designing, implementing, and evaluating walking projects in universities and highlight the value of adopting the Delphi technique for planning international, multisite health initiatives.