Metodologia d'avaluació i disseny d'un test d'usuari aplicat a la web de l'institut català de la salut

La finalitat d'aquest projecte consisteix a establir una metodologia d'avaluació i disseny d'un test d'usuari. Es vol no només avaluar un lloc web en concret, sinó també establir una sèrie de pautes que es puguin aplicar a qualsevol altra aplicació futura.

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

A system to evaluate the accuracy of a visual mosaicking methodology

When underwater vehicles navigate close to the ocean floor, computer vision techniques can be applied to obtain motion estimates. A complete system to create visual mosaics of the seabed is described in this paper. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the constructed mosaic is difficult to evaluate. The use of a laboratory setup to obtain an accurate error measurement is proposed. The system consists on a robot arm carrying a downward looking camera. A pattern formed by a white background and a matrix of black dots uniformly distributed along the surveyed scene is used to find the exact image registration parameters. When the robot executes a trajectory (simulating the motion of a submersible), an image sequence is acquired by the camera. The estimated motion computed from the encoders of the robot is refined by detecting, to subpixel accuracy, the black dots of the image sequence, and computing the 2D projective transform which relates two consecutive images. The pattern is then substituted by a poster of the sea floor and the trajectory is executed again, acquiring the image sequence used to test the accuracy of the mosaicking system

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Association between HIV status and HIV knowledge in the population attending Non-Governmental Organizations to perform the rapid HIV test in Catalonia

Human Immunodeficiency Virus continues to be a pandemic. Spain is one of the European countries with the highest incidence of HIV. Within Catalonia, Spain many projects have been implemented with the intention of improving HIV knowledge and lowering the incidence. HIV knowledge is also known to have a positive effect on lowering stigma and discrimination of the people living with HIV. However, few studies study the distribution of HIV knowledge and its association to HIV status, age, sex, geographical zone of origin and level of education within the same study. Objectives: To identify if HIV knowledge is associated with HIV status, age, sex, geographical zone of origin and level of education. Method: Quantitative, cross-sectional, centre-based study comprising of people receiving an HIV test in Catalonia, Spain. Data will be collected from the 11 HIV Non-Governmental Organisations in Catalonia, Spain. The Brief HIV Knowledge Scale will be used to assess HIV knowledge; information from the HIV test session will be used to assess HIV status, age, sex, geographic zone of origin and level of education. The association between HIV knowledge and the afore mentioned variables will then be calculated.

Incongruence between test statistics and P values in medical papers

Given an observed test statistic and its degrees of freedom, one may compute the observed P value with most statistical packages. It is unknown to what extent test statistics and P values are congruent in published medical papers. Methods:We checked the congruence of statistical results reported in all the papers of volumes 409–412 of Nature (2001) and a random sample of 63 results from volumes 322–323 of BMJ (2001). We also tested whether the frequencies of the last digit of a sample of 610 test statistics deviated from a uniform distribution (i.e., equally probable digits).Results: 11.6% (21 of 181) and 11.1% (7 of 63) of the statistical results published in Nature and BMJ respectively during 2001 were incongruent, probably mostly due to rounding, transcription, or type-setting errors. At least one such error appeared in 38% and 25% of the papers of Nature and BMJ, respectively. In 12% of the cases, the significance level might change one or more orders of magnitude. The frequencies of the last digit of statistics deviated from the uniform distribution and suggested digit preference in rounding and reporting.Conclusions: this incongruence of test statistics and P values is another example that statistical practice is generally poor, even in the most renowned scientific journals, and that quality of papers should be more controlled and valued

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Characteristics of the cornea and ocular surface in patients with congenital aniridia

We performed complete eye exams on 50 eyes in 25 patients with congenital aniridia. Factors such as age, history of ocular surgery, dry eye score and aesthesiometry results correlated with the degree of aniridia-related keratopathy. Schirmer’s test I in 86.8%, Schirmer’s test II in 94.4% and TFBUT in 83.3% of cases were all normal. Corneal staining was altered in 54.2%, and conjunctival staining was altered in 45.7%. The tear ferning pattern was abnormal in 80%. Conjunctival metaplasia was present in 76.9%.Corneal endothelial cell density was normal. Ultrasonic pachymetry was higher than average in all eyes examined.

Disipación y energía de los ciclones tropicales: ajustes y test de bondad de ajuste

Los ciclones tropicales son los fenómenos climatológicos más destructivos. El PDI y otros índices que se definen aquí permiten estimar la energía que éstos poseen. Tales índices ajustan una ley de potencias en una parte de su recorrido. En el presente trabajo se procede al ajuste de las respectivas leyes de potencias de los índices para los ciclones tropicales en el norte del Océano Atlántico y noreste del Pacífico en los periodos de 1988 a 2010 y de 2001 a 2010 respectivamente, a partir de los datos registrados por el NOAA.

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocksbased on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the commonjoins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems.Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomialrandom function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and areexplicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistenciesof the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possiblycontradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that theprobabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere inthe domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identicalmultinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomialdistributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts canbe considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so calledHardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This isa generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignmentof phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilitiesdo not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observedprobabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation ofthe multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shiftcan be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithmto perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and realdata are presented.Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases,joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinbergmanifold, Aitchison geometry

Aplicació web de generació i autoavaluació d'exàmens tipus test basat en el criptosistema knapsack

Creació d'una aplicació web que genera exàmens tipus test agafant les preguntes d'un banc de preguntes. Genera una versió per cada alumne del mateix exàmen, amb les preguntes desordenades i les opcions també desordenades. A cada resposta se li associa un número. El resultat de l'exàmen és la suma de les repostes. Mitjançant el criptosistema Knapsack ficant a l'aplicació el número resultat de l'exàmen s'obté la nota.

Internal test sets studies in a group of antimalarials

Topological indices have been applied to build QSAR models for a set of 20 antimalarial cyclic peroxy cetals. In order to evaluate the reliability of the proposed linear models leave-n-out and Internal Test Sets (ITS) approaches have been considered. The proposed procedure resulted in a robust and consensued prediction equation and here it is shown why it is superior to the employed standard cross-validation algorithms involving multilinear regression models

Influència de la dislèxia en els resultats d'eficàcia del test IGF

En el present treball es pretén determinar si existeix una correlació entre la dislèxia (dificultat en l'aprenentatge de la lectura i l'escriptura) i els resultats en el test IGF (intel·ligència general i factorial), concretament els resultats d'eficàcia. Es va seleccionar una mostra d'alumnes a la que, en primer lloc, es va diagnosticar o descartar la dislèxia, i després se'ls-hi va administrar l'IGF. No es van observar diferències significatives en els resultats d'eficàcia del test IGF entre dislèxics i no-dislèxics en dits resultats.

Cloud code test IDE

L'objectiu principal d'aquest projecte final de carrera consisteix en desenvolupar una aplicació web que oferisca un entorn simplificat de desenvolupament integrat (IDE) en el llenguatge C/C++, on els estudiants de batxillerat (o secundària en general) puguen iniciar-se en el seu estudi. La finalitat és proveir un entorn agradable a l'alumnat perquè puga seguir correctament les pràctiques que proposa el professor independentment de les circumstàncies pròpies d'aquest (ubicació temporal o permanentde l'alumnat, sistema operatiu que utilitza, dispositiu emprat per a fer les pràctiques, etc..).