46 resultados para Childhood Mortality
Resumo:
This study aimed to investigate the behaviour of two indicators of influenza activity in the area of Barcelona and to evaluate the usefulness of modelling them to improve the detection of influenza epidemics. DESIGN: Descriptive time series study using the number of deaths due to all causes registered by funeral services and reported cases of influenza-like illness. The study concentrated on five influenza seasons, from week 45 of 1988 to week 44 of 1993. The weekly number of deaths and cases of influenza-like illness registered were processed using identification of a time series ARIMA model. SETTING: Six large towns in the Barcelona province which have more than 60,000 inhabitants and funeral services in all of them. MAIN RESULTS: For mortality, the proposed model was an autoregressive one of order 2 (ARIMA (2,0,0)) and for morbidity it was one of order 3 (ARIMA (3,0,0)). Finally, the two time series were analysed together to facilitate the detection of possible implications between them. The joint study of the two series shows that the mortality series can be modelled separately from the reported morbidity series, but the morbidity series is influenced as much by the number of previous cases of influenza reported as by the previous mortality registered. CONCLUSIONS: The model based on general mortality is useful for detecting epidemic activity of influenza. However, because there is not an absolute gold standard that allows definition of the beginning of the epidemic, the final decision of when it is considered an epidemic and control measures recommended should be taken after evaluating all the indicators included in the influenza surveillance programme.
Resumo:
Objective: To examine whether drawing is useful in the detection of problems of psychosocial adaptation in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and in improving communication with health professionals. Methods: We performed an exploratory descriptive study in 199 children and adolescents with T1D aged 413 years. The participants were asked to render a drawing on a suggested topic. The variables analyzed were related to the drawing and to clinical and sociodemographic data. Results: Most participants showed evidence of having a well-balanced personality, but there were also signs of affective or psychosocial difficulties. Conclusion: Drawing is a useful technique by which to identify children"s and adolescents" feelings and possible problems in adapting to T1D, as well as to gain information directly from the children themselves. Future studies should delimit the possibilities of this technique in clinical practice in greater detail.
Resumo:
Objective: To examine whether drawing is useful in the detection of problems of psychosocial adaptation in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes (T1D) and in improving communication with health professionals. Methods: We performed an exploratory descriptive study in 199 children and adolescents with T1D aged 413 years. The participants were asked to render a drawing on a suggested topic. The variables analyzed were related to the drawing and to clinical and sociodemographic data. Results: Most participants showed evidence of having a well-balanced personality, but there were also signs of affective or psychosocial difficulties. Conclusion: Drawing is a useful technique by which to identify children"s and adolescents" feelings and possible problems in adapting to T1D, as well as to gain information directly from the children themselves. Future studies should delimit the possibilities of this technique in clinical practice in greater detail.
Resumo:
Many governments in developing countries implement programs that aim to address nutrionalfailures in early childhood, yet evidence on the effectiveness of these interventions is scant. Thispaper evaluates the impact of a conditional food supplementation program on child mortality inEcuador. The Programa de Alimentaci?n y Nutrici?n Nacional (PANN) 2000 was implementedby regular staff at local public health posts and consisted of offering a free micronutrient-fortifiedfood, Mi Papilla, for children aged 6 to 24 months in exchange for routine health check-ups forthe children. Our regression discontinuity design exploits the fact that at its inception, the PANN2000 was running for about 8 months only in the poorest communities (parroquias) of certainprovinces. Our main result is that the presence of the program reduced child mortality in cohortswith 8 months of differential exposure from a level of about 2.5 percent by 1 to 1.5 percentagepoints.
Resumo:
Reliable estimates of the post-release mortality probability of marine turtles after incidental by-catch are essential for assessing the impact of longline fishing on these species.Large numbers of loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta from rookeries in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean have been by-caught annually in the southwestern Mediterranean Sea since the 1980s, but nothing is known about their post-release mortality probability under natural conditions. Pop-up archival transmitting tags were attached to 26 loggerhead turtles following incidental capture by Spanish longliners. Hooks were not removed, and 40 cm of line was left in place. The post-release mortality probability during the 90 d following release ranged from 0.308 to 0.365, and was independent of hook location. When the post-release mortality probability was combined with previously reported estimates of the mortality probability before hauling, the aggregated by-catch mortality probability ranged from 0.321 to 0.378. Assuming a total annual by-catch of 10656 loggerhead turtles by the Spanish longline fleet operating in the southwestern Mediterranean, by-catch results in 3421 to 4028 turtle deaths annually. This range is equivalent to 8.5−10.1% of the approximately 40000 turtles inhabiting the fishing grounds used by Spanish longliners, most of them from rookeries in the northwestern Atlantic. As a consequence, the accumulated mortality during the oceanic stage is expected to be larger for those loggerhead turtles of Atlantic origin that spend several years in the Mediterranean Sea than for turtles of the same cohort that remain in the Atlantic. For this reason, the Mediterranean can be considered a dead end for loggerhead turtle populations nesting in the Atlantic, although the actual demographic relevance of by-catch mortality of loggerhead turtles in the Mediterranean remains unknown.
Resumo:
Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.
Resumo:
Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.
Resumo:
This book offers the reader the study and the conclusions obtained from theresearch made in Spain in the frame of the JUST/2009/FRAC/AG/0933 project,“Children’s rights in action. Improving children’s rights in migration acrossEurope. The Romanian case”. A project funded by the Department of FundamentalRights and Citizenship of the European Commission. This research wascarried out in Spain, Italy and Romania between October 2010 and June 2012,performing activities to spread the results obtained until March 2013.
Resumo:
El objetivo principal de este estudio es conocer la concordancia entre informantes, padres y maestros,en cada una de las dimensiones o categorías diagnósticas del Early Childhood Inventory-4 (ECI-4).Además, se pretende analizar la influencia de la presencia de problemas de salud en los padres en ladescripción y valoración de la conducta de una muestra de 204 alumnos de preescolar (3 a 6 años) deperfiles socioeconómicos diferentes. Los resultados indican que los padres tienden a valorar con mayorseveridad los síntomas, observándose una mayor concordancia entre informantes en los relativos alos trastornos del desarrollo
Resumo:
Early repolarization, which is characterized by an elevation of the J-point on 12-lead electrocardiography, is a common finding that has been considered as benign for decades. However, in the last years, it has been related with vulnerability to idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and with cardiac mortality in the general population. Recently, 4 potential ECG predictors that could differentiate the benign from the malignant form of early repolarization have been suggested. Any previous study about early repolarization has been done in Spain. Aim. To ascertain whether the presence of early repolarization pattern in a resting electrocardiogram is associated with a major risk of cardiac death in a Spanish general population and to determine whether the presence of potential predictors of malignancy in a resting electrocardiogram increases the risk of cardiac mortality in patients with early repolarization pattern. Methods. We will analyse the presence of early repolarization and the occurrence of cardiac mortality in a retrospective cohort study of 4,279 participants aged 25 to 74 years in the province of Girona. This cohort has been followed during a mean of 9.8 years. Early repolarization will be stratified according to the degree of J-point elevation (≥0.1 mV or ≥0.2 mV), the morphology of the J-wave (slurring, notching or any of these two), the ST-segment pattern (ascending or descending) and the localization (inferior leads, lateral leads, or both). Association of early repolarization with cardiac death will be assessed by adjusted Cox-proportional hazards models
Resumo:
Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
Resumo:
Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
Resumo:
Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
Resumo:
Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.
Resumo:
Background Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice. Results A web-based application, called RiskDiff has been implemented (available at http://rht.iconcologia.net/riskdiff.htm webcite), to perform this kind of statistical analyses, providing text and graphical summaries. Code from the implemented functions in R is also provided. An application to cancer mortality data from Catalonia is used for illustration. Conclusions Combining epidemiological with demographical factors is crucial for analysing incidence or mortality from a disease, especially if the population pyramids show substantial differences. The tool implemented may serve to promote and divulgate the use of this method to give advice for epidemiologic interpretation and decision making in public health.