The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

Nominal plural marking of nonce words in child Spanish

This study addresses the issue of Spanish plural marking considering data from three sources: existent words, loan words and nonce words. Specifically, we are interested in the role of stress placement and word-final sound in the use of /-es/ for plural formation. We present data concerning the interaction of these two features for children and adults. Our findings suggest that this phenomenon is a classic example of over generalization in acquisition. Stress does not seem a determining feature by itself. Its main effect is produced when it interacts with the structure of the syllable

Seeds of hope: Assessing the effect of development aid on the reduction of child mortality

The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality.

Neither Private nor Public: The Effects of Communal Provision of Water on Child Health in Peru

The literature on local services has focused on the effects of privatization and, if anything, has compared the effects of private and mixed public-private systems versus public provision. However, alternative forms of provision such as cooperatives, which can be very prevalent in many developing countries, have been completely ignored. In this paper, we investigate the effects of communal water provison (Comités Vecinales and Juntas Administrativas de Servicios de Saneamiento) on child health in Peru. Using detailed survey data at the household- and child-level for the years 2006-2010, we exploit the cross-section variability to assess the differential impact of this form of provision. Despite controlling for a wide range of household and local characteristics, the municipalities served by communal organizations are more likely to have poorer health indicators, what would result in a downward bias on the absolute magnitude of the effect of cooperatives. We rely on an instrumental variable strategy to deal with this potential endogeneity problem, and use the personnel resources and the administrative urban/rural classi fication of the municipalities as instruments for the provision type. The results show a negative and signi cant effect of comunal water provision on diarrhea among under- five year old children. Keywords: water utilities, cooperatives, child health, regulation, Peru. JEL Classi fication Numbers: L33; L50; L95

Measuring the child mortality impact of official aid for fighting infectious diseases, 2000-2010

Aid for fighting infectious and parasitic diseases has had a statistically significant role in the under-five mortality reduction in the last decade. Point estimates indicate a country average reduction of 1.4 deaths per thousand under fives live-born attributable to aid at its average level in 2000-2010. The effect would be an average drop of 3.3 in the under-five mortality rate at the aid levels of 2010. By components, a dollar per capita spent in fighting malaria has caused the largest average impact, statistically higher than a dollar per capita spent in STD/HIV control. We do not find statistically significant effects of other infectious disease aid, including aid for the control of tuberculosis.

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Social Determinants of Child Health in Colombia: Can Community Education Moderate the Effect of Family Characteristics?

Contextual effects on child health have been investigated extensively in previous research. However, few studies have considered the interplay between community characteristics and individual-level variables. This study examines the influence of community education and family socioeconomic characteristics on child health (as measured by height and weight-for-age Z-scores), as well as their interactions. We adapted the Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH) framework to the context of child health. Using data from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), weighted multilevel models are fitted since the data are not self-weighting. The results show a positive impact of the level of education of other women in the community on child health, even after controlling for individual and family socioeconomic characteristics. Different pathways through which community education can substitute for the effect of family characteristics on child nutrition are found. The interaction terms highlight the importance of community education as a moderator of the impact of the mother’s own education and autonomy, on child health. In addition, the results reveal differences between height and weight-for-age indicators in their responsiveness to individual and contextual factors. Our findings suggest that community intervention programmes may have differential effects on child health. Therefore, their identification can contribute to a better targeting of child care policies.

On-farm animal welfare assessment in dairy cattle: improved lameness detection

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la University of British Columbia, Canada, entre 2010 i 2012. Primerament es va desenvolupar una escala per mesurar coixeses (amb valors de l’1 al 5). Aquesta escala es va utilitzar per estudiar l’associació entre factors de risc a nivell de granja (disseny de le instal.lacions i maneig) i la prevalencia de coixeses a Nord America. Les dades es van recollir en un total de 40 granges al Nord Est dels E.E.U.U (NE) i 39 a California (CA) . Totes les vaques del group mes productiu es van categoritzar segons la severitat de les coixeses: sanes, coixes i severament coixes. La prevalencia de coixeses en general fou del 55 % a NE i del 31% a CA. La prevalencia de coixeses severes fou del 8% a NE i del 4% a Ca. A NE, les coixeses en general increntaren amb la presencia de serradura als llits i disminuiren en granjes grans, amb major quantitat de llit i acces a pastura. Les coixeses mes severes incrementaren amb la falta d’higiene als llit i amb la presencia de serradura als llits, i disminuiren amb la quantitat de llit proveit, l’us de sorra als llits i amb la mida de la granja. A CA, les coixeses en general incrementaren amb la falta d’higiene al llit, i disminuiren amb la mida de la granja, la presencia de terres de goma, l’increment d’espai als cubicles , l’espai a l’abeuredor i la desinfeccio de les peulles. Les coixeses severes incrementaren amb la falta d’higiene al llit i disminuixen amb la frequencia de neteja del corral. En conclusio, canvis en el maneig i el disseny de les instal.lacions poden ajudar a disminuir la prevalencia de coixeses, tot i que les estrategies a seguir variaran segons la regio.

Productivities, preferences, and parental child care

We study the interplay of preferences and market productivities on parenting, and show the preferences, when identified, provide a better explanation of caring decisions than has, so far, been demonstrated in the literature. We qualify the standard finding the parental education in a key determinant of care by showing important interaction effects with marital homogamy. We find that homogamy has opposite effects on child care and couple specialization for high and low educated parents. Identification has been made possible by a unique couple-based time diary study for Denmark

Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain

In this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal child care availability for children under three has a positive effect across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation of social institutions to changes in gender roles. Event history models with regional fixed effects are applied to data from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001). The results show a significant and positive effect of regional day care availability on both, first and higher order births, while results are consistent with the second hypothesis only for second or higher order births.

The Role of social institutions in inter-generational mobility

In this study we examine the role of institutions in shaping inter-generational mobility behavior. Research has traditionally emphasized the role of educational systems but cummulative evidence suggests that variations in their design offer only a very limited explanation for observed mobility differences. We examine the impact of welfare states and, in particular, how early childhood and family policies may influence the impact of economic and cultural characteristics of origin families on child outcomes.

Explaining parental dedication to child care in Spain

The quality of the time dedicated to child care has potential positive effects on children’s life chances. However, the determinants of parental time allocation to child care remain largely unexplored, particularly in context undergoing rapid family change such as Spain. We assess two alternative explanations for differences between parents in the amount of time spent with children. The first, based in the relative resources hypothesis, links variation in time spent with children to the relative attributes (occupation, education or income) of one partner to the other. The second, derived from the social status hypothesis, suggests that variation in time spent with children is attributable to the relative social position of the pair (i.e. higher status couples spend more time with children regardless of within-couple difference).To investigate theses questions, we use a sample of adults (18-50) from the Spanish Time Use Survey (STUS) 2002-2003 (n=7,438). Limiting the analysis to adults who are married or in consensual unions, the STUS allows to assess both the quantity and quality of parental time spent with children. We find little support for the “relative resources hypothesis”. Instead, consistent with the “social status hypothesis”, we find that time spent on child care is attributable to the social position of the couple, regardless of between-parent differences in income of education.

Do welfare benefits affect womens' choices of adult care giving?

The efficacy of social care, publicly and universally provided, has been contested from two different points of view. First, advocates of targeting social policy criticized the Matthew’s effect of universal provision and; second, theories arguing in favour of heterogeneous rationalities between men and women and, even different preferences among women, predict that universal provision of services is limiting women’s choices more than home allowances. The author tests both hypotheses and concludes that, at least in the case of adult care, women’s choices are significantly affected by women’s social positions and by the availability of public services. Furthermore, targeting through means-test eligibility criteria has no significant effect on inequality but, confirming the redistributive paradox, reduces women’s options.

Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations

In this paper we present a simple theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency: the gap between the marginal product of labor and the household s consumption/leisure tradeoff. We show that this indicator corresponds to the inverse of the markup of price over social marginal cost, and give some evidence in support of this interpretation. We then show that, with some auxilliary assumptions our gap variable may be used to measure the efficiency costs of business fluctuations. We find that the latter costs are modest on average. However, to the extent the flexible price equilibrium is distorted, the gross efficiency losses from recessions and gains from booms may be large. Indeed, we find that the major recessions involved large efficiency losses. These results hold for reasonable parameterizations of the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and steady state distortions.