25 resultados para Box-Jenkins
Resumo:
Paltridge found reasonable values for the most significant climatic variables through maximizing the material transport part of entropy production by using a simple box model. Here, we analyse Paltridge's box model to obtain the energy and the entropy balance equations separately. Derived expressions for global entropy production, which is a function of the radiation field, and even its material transport component, are shown to be different from those used by Paltridge. Plausible climatic states are found at extrema of these parameters. Feasible results are also obtained by minimizing the radiation part of entropy production, in agreement with one of Planck's results, Finally, globally averaged values of the entropy flux of radiation and material entropy production are obtained for two dynamical extreme cases: an earth with uniform temperature, and an earth in radiative equilibrium at each latitudinal point
Resumo:
El presente trabajo analiza la construcción del espacio vivencial en cinco series televisivas producidas por la cadena norteamericana HBO: Carnivàle, Deadwood, The Sopranos, The Wire y Treme. La investigación parte de la convicción de una posible reelaboración de la historia del espacio doméstico norteamericano a través de la puesta en escena y de la potencialidad simbólica del espacio serial. De este modo, el trabajo propone un recorrido hermenéutico en el que se analiza la evolución del espacio narrativo, su evolución morfológica en dependencia de las necesidades diegéticas de cada una de las obras analizadas.
Resumo:
Opinion polls are widely used to capture public sentiments on a varietyof issues. If citizens are unwilling to reveal certain policy preferences toothers, opinion polls may fail to characterize population preferences accurately.The innovation of this paper is to use unique data to measurebiases in opinion polls for a broad range of policies. I combine data on184 referenda held in Switzerland between 1987 and 2007, with postballotsurveys that ask for each proposal how the citizens voted. Thedifference between stated preferences in the survey and revealed preferences at the ballot box provides a direct measure of bias in opinion polls.I find that these biases vary by policy areas, with the largest ones occurring in policies on immigration, international integration, and votesinvolving liberal/conservative attitudes. Also, citizens show a tendencyto respond in accordance to the majority.
Resumo:
Social capital a dense network of associations facilitating cooperation within a community typically leads to positive political and economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a large literature following Putnam. A growing literature emphasizes the potentially "dark side" of social capital. This paper examines the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany by analyzing Nazi party entry rates in a cross-section of towns and cities. Before the Nazi Party's triumphs at the ballot box, it built an extensive organizational structure, becoming a mass movement with nearly a million members by early 1933. We show that dense networks of civic associations such as bowling clubs, animal breeder associations, or choirs facilitated the rise of the Nazi Party. The effects are large: Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least one-third faster growth in the strength of the Nazi Party. IV results based on 19th century measures of social capital reinforce our conclusions. In addition, all types of associations veteran associations and non-military clubs, "bridging" and "bonding" associations positively predict NS party entry. These results suggest that social capital in Weimar Germany aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany's first democracy.
Resumo:
Power transformations of positive data tables, prior to applying the correspondence analysis algorithm, are shown to open up a family of methods with direct connections to the analysis of log-ratios. Two variations of this idea are illustrated. The first approach is simply to power the original data and perform a correspondence analysis this method is shown to converge to unweighted log-ratio analysis as the power parameter tends to zero. The second approach is to apply the power transformation to thecontingency ratios, that is the values in the table relative to expected values based on the marginals this method converges to weighted log-ratio analysis, or the spectral map. Two applications are described: first, a matrix of population genetic data which is inherently two-dimensional, and second, a larger cross-tabulation with higher dimensionality, from a linguistic analysis of several books.
Resumo:
A new parametric minimum distance time-domain estimator for ARFIMA processes is introduced in this paper. The proposed estimator minimizes the sum of squared correlations of residuals obtained after filtering a series through ARFIMA parameters. The estimator iseasy to compute and is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed for fractionallyintegrated (FI) processes with an integration order d strictly greater than -0.75. Therefore, it can be applied to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Deterministic components are also allowed in the DGP. Furthermore, as a by-product, the estimation procedure provides an immediate check on the adequacy of the specified model. This is so because the criterion function, when evaluated at the estimated values, coincides with the Box-Pierce goodness of fit statistic. Empirical applications and Monte-Carlo simulations supporting the analytical results and showing the good performance of the estimator in finite samples are also provided.
Resumo:
The criterion, based on the thermodynamics theory, that the climatic system tends to extremizesome function has suggested several studies. In particular, special attention has been devoted to the possibility that the climate reaches an extremal rate of planetary entropy production.Due to both radiative and material effects contribute to total planetary entropy production,climatic simulations obtained at the extremal rates of total, radiative or material entropy production appear to be of interest in order to elucidate which of the three extremal assumptions behaves more similar to current data. In the present paper, these results have been obtainedby applying a 2-dimensional (2-Dim) horizontal energy balance box-model, with a few independent variables (surface temperature, cloud-cover and material heat fluxes). In addition, climatic simulations for current conditions by assuming a fixed cloud-cover have been obtained. Finally,sensitivity analyses for both variable and fixed cloud models have been carried out
Convergència mediàtica digital: el consum de continguts i l'ús de nous mitjans per dones a Catalunya
Resumo:
Des de fa 20 anys, el sector audiovisual viu una important transformació, tant de l’oferta com del consum, en el marc de la convergència digital. La convergència anuncia la coexistència dels nous mitjans digitals amb l’apogeu d’una cultura participativa, protagonitzada per comunitats d’usuaris amb una activitat quasi frenètica (Jenkins,2008). Noves modalitats de treball cooperatiu que permeten la creació i recreació grupal de continguts, i la creació de comunitats d’usuaris que utilitzen i reutilitzen les noves modalitats de serveis. En aquest context, augmenta la segmentació, la fragmentació i l’abonament dels usuaris (Tous, 2009), perquè la tipologia de les plataformes de continguts ha variat de manera significativa, s’han incorporat els dispositius mòbils i s’han diversificat i sofisticat les ofertes a Internet.
Resumo:
RESUM Avui en dia, l’alta competitivitat que existeix al mercat, fa que les empreses hagin d’esprémer al màxim les seves possibilitats per no quedar-se enrere. Un dels processos en que aquest fet hi és més present és el productiu. L’empresa JCM Technologies també engloba aquest camp i és en un dels seus processos productius on aquest projecte pren part. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte final de carrera ha estat desenvolupar un sistema per poder marcar caixes mitjançant un làser de CO2 i un automatisme manipulador de caixes. D’aquesta manera aquest procés productiu té una durada molt inferior a l’antic procés, que consistia en enganxar una etiqueta al lloc on ara és marcat pel làser. Per satisfer els objectius, s’ha creat una aplicació de Windows que per mitjà d’una interfície gràfica, permet a l’usuari realitzar els passos necessaris per fer el marcatge. Primerament es recullen les dades procedents de la comanda; seguidament es seleccionen les que s’han de marcar a les caixes i s’envien al làser mitjançant comunicació sèrie; una vegada aquesta inicialització ha finalitzat correctament, s’engega la seqüència de marcatge de les caixes, que en marcarà la quantitat indicada. Aquest procés de marcatge consisteix en supervisar l’estat en que es troben certes senyals, procedents de l’automatisme i del làser, i depenent d’aquestes generar-ne unes altres. Aconseguint així realitzar el procés de marcatge de cada caixa. Com a conclusions cal dir, que els objectius s’han complert, ja que s’ha aconseguit un procés de marcatge ràpid i robust. També s’ha aconseguit que les parts de configuració de l’aplicació, i de les caixes siguin de fàcil manipulació. Per tant, amb l’acompliment dels objectius d’aquest projecte, aconseguim completar el sistema de marcatge, i permetre que les caixes siguin marcades de forma correcta, ràpida i eficient.
Resumo:
The ability to regulate specific genes of energy metabolism in response to fasting and feeding is an important adaptation allowing survival of intermittent food supplies. However, little is known about transcription factors involved in such responses in higher organisms. We show here that gene expression in adipose tissue for adipocyte determination differentiation dependent factor (ADD) 1/sterol regulatory element binding protein (SREBP) 1, a basic-helix-loop-helix protein that has a dual DNA-binding specificity, is reduced dramatically upon fasting and elevated upon refeeding; this parallels closely the regulation of two adipose cell genes that are crucial in energy homeostasis, fatty acid synthetase (FAS) and leptin. This elevation of ADD1/SREBP1, leptin, and FAS that is induced by feeding in vivo is mimicked by exposure of cultured adipocytes to insulin, the classic hormone of the fed state. We also show that the promoters for both leptin and FAS are transactivated by ADD1/SREBP1. A mutation in the basic domain of ADD1/SREBP1 that allows E-box binding but destroys sterol regulatory element-1 binding prevents leptin gene transactivation but has no effect on the increase in FAS promoter function. Molecular dissection of the FAS promoter shows that most if not all of this action of ADD1/SREBP1 is through an E-box motif at -64 to -59, contained with a sequence identified previously as the major insulin response element of this gene. These results indicate that ADD1/SREBP1 is a key transcription factor linking changes in nutritional status and insulin levels to the expression of certain genes that regulate systemic energy metabolism.