Londres, terra promesa: l'emigració de joves universitaris titulats catalans a Londres

L’alta taxa d’atur juvenil a Catalunya i la precarització persistent del mercat laboral per als joves, han provocat que molts d’ells es plantegin marxar a l’estranger per a provar sort. Segons l’INE, al 2012 van emigrar 10791 catalans i el 35,7% són joves d’entre 16 i 34 anys. El Regne Unit va ser la tercera destinació preferida, amb 958 catalans emigrants reconeguts. La globalització ha difuminat les fronteres i ha obert els horitzons a empreses i treballadors. Les experiències internacionals són cada cop més necessàries si volem formar part d’aquest món, però tenen les seves contrapartides. La present investigació estudia el cas de 10 joves catalans amb titulacions universitàries que han marxat a Londres a la recerca d’aquesta experiència internacional, tot desitjant assentar les bases d’una carrera professional exitosa. El focus d’estudi és conèixer les motivacions de l’emigració que han trobat a la ciutat anglesa i quines són les expectatives de futur

Dots i llegats dels Baldrich de Valls (1768-1863)

Aquest article presenta les dificultats que van haver d’afrontar entre 1768 i 1863 els hereus de la casa Baldrich de Valls per liquidar els dots i les deixes testamentàries. Anton Baldrich Janer va nomenar hereu el fill gran del primer matrimoni amb l’obligació de pagar als seus germans i especialment als seus germanastres unes quantitats molt elevades de diners atorgats en un moment de grans expectatives econòmiques, gràcies al comerç amb Amèrica i el nord d’Europa. Durant la primera meitat del segle XIX, alguns anys de males collites, les contínues guerres i la independència de les colònies americanes feren minvar els recursos i van afeblir la hisenda familiar. Els successius hereus maldaven per pagar les contínues reclamacions dels cabalers i les cabaleres de les diferents generacions, fet que els impedia invertir en noves empreses per tal d’ampliar i modernitzar els seus negocis. L’any 1863, el darrer hereu Baldrich va morir sense descendència, havent pagat els darrers deutes familiars però sense haver creat nous horitzons per als seus successors.

Higher-dimensional rotating charged black holes

Using the blackfold approach, we study new classes of higher-dimensional rotating black holes with electric charges and string dipoles, in theories of gravity coupled to a 2-form or 3-form field strength and to a dilaton with arbitrary coupling. The method allows to describe not only black holes with large angular momenta, but also other regimes that include charged black holes near extremality with slow rotation. We construct explicit examples of electric rotating black holes of dilatonic and non-dilatonic Einstein-Maxwell theory, with horizons of spherical and non-spherical topology. We also find new families of solutions with string dipoles, including a new class of prolate black rings. Whenever there are exact solutions that we can compare to, their properties in the appropriate regime are reproduced precisely by our solutions. The analysis of blackfolds with string charges requires the formulation of the dynamics of anisotropic fluids with conserved string-number currents, which is new, and is carried out in detail for perfect fluids. Finally, our results indicate new instabilities of near-extremal, slowly rotating charged black holes, and motivate conjectures about topological constraints on dipole hair.

Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: neural networks vs. time series models

The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting techniques, together with the requirement for more accurate forecasts of tourismdemand at the destination level due to the constant growth of world tourism, has lead us to evaluate the forecasting performance of neural modelling relative to that of time seriesmethods at a regional level. Seasonality and volatility are important features of tourism data, which makes it a particularly favourable context in which to compare the forecasting performance of linear models to that of nonlinear alternative approaches. Pre-processed official statistical data of overnight stays and tourist arrivals fromall the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2009 is used in the study. When comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques for different time horizons, autoregressive integrated moving average models outperform self-exciting threshold autoregressions and artificial neural network models, especially for shorter horizons. These results suggest that the there is a trade-off between the degree of pre-processing and the accuracy of the forecasts obtained with neural networks, which are more suitable in the presence of nonlinearity in the data. In spite of the significant differences between countries, which can be explained by different patterns of consumer behaviour,we also find that forecasts of tourist arrivals aremore accurate than forecasts of overnight stays.

Denominació d'horitzons genètics (i capes)

En aquest treball es presenta una proposta per a la denominació d'horitzons genètics dels sòls de Catalunya, recollint especialment el cas de la gènesi dels que s'han desenvolupat sobre materials originaris rics en carbonatats i guix. Al llarg del document s'expliciten els criteris de denominació i les regles nomenclaturals adoptades, com també la utilització dels subíndexs per indicar els processos edafics i les propietats dels horitzons. Finalment, es presenta un conjunt de denominacions per als horitzons més freqüentment trobats a Catalunya.

Quantum black holes: Nonperturbative corrections and no-veil scenario

A common belief is that further quantum corrections near the singularity of a large black hole should not substantially modify the semiclassical picture of black hole evaporation; in particular, the outgoing spectrum of radiation should be very close to the thermal spectrum predicted by Hawking. In this paper we explore a possible counterexample: in the context of dilaton gravity, we find that nonperturbative quantum corrections which are important in strong-coupling regions may completely alter the semiclassical picture, to the extent that the presumptive spacelike boundary becomes timelike, changing in this way the causal structure of the semiclassical geometry. As a result, only a small fraction of the total energy is radiated outside the fake event horizon; most of the energy comes in fact at later retarded times and there is no problem of information loss. This may constitute a general characteristic of quantum black holes, that is, quantum gravity might be such as to prevent the formation of global event horizons.

Quaternary active tectonic structures in the offshore Bajo Segura basin (SE Iberian Peninsula Mediterranean Sea).

The Bajo Segura fault zone (BSFZ) is the northern terminal splay of the Eastern Betic shear zone (EBSZ), a large left-lateral strike-slip fault system of sigmoid geometry stretching more than 450 km from Alicante to Almería. The BSFZ extends from the onshore Bajo Segura basin further into the Mediterranean Sea and shows a moderate instrumental seismic activity characterized by small earthquakes. Nevertheless, the zone was affected by large historical earthquakes of which the largest was the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake (IEMS98 X). The onshore area of the BSFZ is marked by active transpressive structures (faults and folds), whereas the offshore area has been scarcely explored from the tectonic point of view. During the EVENT-SHELF cruise, a total of 10 high-resolution single-channel seismic sparker profiles were obtained along and across the offshore Bajo Segura basin. Analysis of these profiles resulted in (a) the identification of 6 Quaternary seismo-stratigraphic units bounded by five horizons corresponding to regional erosional surfaces related to global sea level lowstands; and (b) the mapping of the active sub-seafloor structures and their correlation with those described onshore. Moreover, the results suggest that the Bajo Segura blind thrust fault or the Torrevieja left-lateral strike-slip fault, with prolongation offshore, could be considered as the source of the 1829 Torrevieja earthquake. These data improve our understanding of present deformation along the BSFZ and provide new insights into the seismic hazard in the area.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Monitoring spatial and temporal dynamics of bird communities in Mediterranean landscapes affected by largewildfires = Seguimiento de la dinámica espacial y temporal de comunidades de aves en paisajes mediterráneos afectados por grandes fuegos

We presented a bird-monitoring database inMediterranean landscapes (Catalonia, NE Spain) affected by wildfires and we evaluated: 1) the spatial and temporal variability in the bird community composition and 2) the influence of pre-fire habitat configuration in the composition of bird communities. The DINDIS database results fromthemonitoring of bird communities occupying all areas affected by large wildfires in Catalonia since 2000.We used bird surveys conducted from 2006 to 2009 and performed a principal components analysis to describe two main gradients of variation in the composition of bird communities, which were used as descriptors of bird communities in subsequent analyses. We then analysed the relationships of these community descriptors with bioclimatic regions within Catalonia, time since fire and pre-fire vegetation (forest or shrubland).We have conducted 1,918 bird surveys in 567 transects distributed in 56 burnt areas. Eight out of the twenty most common detected species have an unfavourable conservation status, most of them being associated to open-habitats. Both bird communities’ descriptors had a strong regional component and were related to pre-fire vegetation, and to a lesser extent to the time since fire.We came to the conclusion that the responses of bird communities to wildfires are heterogeneous, complex and context dependent. Large-scale monitoring datasets, such as DINDIS, might allow identifying factors acting at different spatial and temporal scales that affect the dynamics of species and communities, giving additional information on the causes under general trends observed using other monitoring systems