Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

R&D in the pharmaceutical industry: A world of small innovations

It is commonly argued that in recent years pharmaceutical companies have directed theirR&D towards small improvements of existing compounds instead of more risky drastic innovations. In this paper we show that the proliferation of these small innovations is likely to be linked to the lack of market sensitivity of a part of the demand to changes in prices. Compared to their social contribution, small innovations are relatively more profitable than large ones because they are targeted to the smaller but more inelastic part of the demand. We also study the effect of regulatory instruments such as price ceilings, copayments and reference prices and extend the analysis to competition in research.

Informe del World Library and Information Congress: 73rd IFLA General Conference and Council (Durban, Sud-àfrica, 19-23 d'agost de 2007)

This year, IFLA's World Library and Information Congress (WLIC) was held in Durban, South Africa, under the title ¿Libraries for the future: progress, development and partnerships¿. The association thus continued its policy of holding the event in different continents: Buenos Aires (South America) 2004, Oslo (Europe) 2005, Seoul (Asia) 2006, Durban (Africa) 2007, Quebec (North America) 2008, Milan (Europe) 2009 and Brisbane (Oceania) 2010.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.

Miquel Àngel Riera's The Unattainable Gods (Els déus inaccessibles), or why can Platonic Western world not restore Paganism?

The aim of this article is to read accurately the novel by M. A. Riera from the point of view of the Classical Tradition and, specifically, from the perspective of the evident Platonic tradition ¿the most metaphysical Platonic love- upon which it is based. In the author¿s opinion, only this accurate reading makes us understand why certain values coming from Paganism and which were considered as such cannot be restored by the Platonic Western world.

World-line condition and the noninteraction theorem

A 6N-dimensional alternative formulation is proposed for constrained Hamiltonian systems. In this context the noninteraction theorem is derived from the world-line conditions. A model of two interacting particles is exhibited where physical coordinates are canonical.

Brane-world creation and black holes

An inflating brane world can be created from ``nothing'' together with its anti-de Sitter (AdS) bulk. The resulting space-time has compact spatial sections bounded by the brane. During inflation, the continuum of KK modes is separated from the massless zero mode by the gap m=(3/2)H, where H is the Hubble rate. We consider the analogue of the Nariai solution and argue that it describes the pair production of ``black cigars'' attached to the inflating brane. In the case when the size of the instantons is much larger than the AdS radius, the 5-dimensional action agrees with the 4-dimensional one. Hence, the 5D and 4D gravitational entropies are the same in this limit. We also consider thermal instantons with an AdS black hole in the bulk. These may be interpreted as describing the creation of a hot universe from nothing or the production of AdS black holes in the vicinity of a pre-existing inflating brane world. The Lorentzian evolution of the brane world after creation is briefly discussed. An additional ``integration constant'' in the Friedmann equation-accompanying a term which dilutes like radiation-describes the tidal force in the fifth direction and arises from the mass of a spherical object inside the bulk. In general, this could be a 5-dimensional black hole or a ``parallel'' brane world of negative tension concentrical with our brane-world. In the case of thermal solutions, and in the spirit of the AdS/CFT correspondence, one may attribute the additional term to thermal radiation in the boundary theory. Then, for temperatures well below the AdS scale, the entropy of this radiation agrees with the entropy of the black hole in the AdS bulk.

Gravity in the Randall-Sundrum brane world

We discuss the weak gravitational field created by isolated matter sources in the Randall-Sundrum brane world. For the case of a single wall of positive tension, the field stays localized near the wall if the source is stationary. We calculate the leading Kaluza-Klein corrections to the linearized gravitational field of a nonrelativistic spherical object, which is different from the Schwarzschild solution at large distances. In the case of two branes of opposite tension, linearized Brans-Dicke (BD) gravity is recovered on either wall, with different BD parameters. On the wall with positive tension the BD parameter is larger than 3000 provided that the separation between walls is larger than 4 times the AdS radius. The gravitational field due to shadow matter is also considered.

Topology of the world trade web

Economy, and consequently trade, is a fundamental part of human social organization which, until now, has not been studied within the network modeling framework. Here we present the first, to the best of our knowledge, empirical characterization of the world trade web, that is, the network built upon the trade relationships between different countries in the world. This network displays the typical properties of complex networks, namely, scale-free degree distribution, the small-world property, a high clustering coefficient, and, in addition, degree-degree correlation between different vertices. All these properties make the world trade web a complex network, which is far from being well described through a classical random network description.

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.