A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Effect of vaccination against gonadotrophin-releasing hormone, using Improvac®, on growth performance, body composition, behaviour and acute phase proteins

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of vaccination against GnRH on performance traits, pig behaviour and acute phase proteins. A total of 120 pigs (36 non-castrated males, NCM; 36 males to be vaccinated, IM; 24 castratedmales, CM; and 24 females, FE)were controlled in groups of 12 in pens with feeding stations allowing the recording of individual feed intake. The two vaccinations (Improvac®) were applied at a mean age of 77 and 146 days. All pigswere individually weighed every 3 weeks from the mean ages of 74 to 176 days and backfat thickness (BT) and loinmuscle depth (LD) were also recorded ultrasonically. Twelve group-housed pigs for each treatment were video recorded during 2 consecutive days at weeks 9, 11, 20, 21, 23 and 25 of age to score the number of inactive or active pigs in each treatment group by scan sampling. Aggressive behaviour by the feeder and away from the feeder, and mounting behaviour was also scored by focal sampling. Blood samples from 12 NCM, 12 CM and 12 IM were taken to determine the concentration of circulating acute phase protein Pig-MAP atweeks 1, 2, 4, 11, 13, 21 and 25 of age. After slaughter, the number of skin lesions on the left half carcasswas scored. IMpresented overall a higher growth rate and daily feed intake compared to NCM (Pb0.05),whereas their feed conversion ratios did not differ significantly. In comparison with CM, IM presented a better feed conversion ratio (Pb0.05), since their overall dailyweight gaindid not differ significantly, butIM ate less. Final leanmeat percentage of IM and CM was lower compared to that of NCM (Pb0.05). Activity, mounting and aggressive behaviour of NCM was higher than in IM, CM and FE after the second vaccination. Pig-MAP concentrationswere significantly elevated just after surgical castrationand after bothadministrations of the vaccine (Pb0.05), but concentrations subsequently decreased throughout time. Skin lesions of NCM were significantly higher compared to that of IM and FE (Pb0.05). The effects of vaccination were especially remarkable after the second dose, when the higher feed intake and lower activity of IM compared to NCMmight result in higher final body weight and more fat. Results from this study indicate that some welfare aspects such as a reduced aggression and mounting behaviour may be improved by vaccination against GnRH, together with productive benefits like adequate feed conversion ratio and daily weight gain.

Simple and fast methods based on solid-phase extraction coupled to liquid chromatography with UV detection for the monitoring of caffeine in natural and waste waters as marker of anthropogenic impact

Two concentration methods for fast and routine determination of caffeine (using HPLC-UV detection) in surface, and wastewater are evaluated. Both methods are based on solid-phase extraction (SPE) concentration with octadecyl silica sorbents. A common “offline” SPE procedure shows that quantitative recovery of caffeine is obtained with 2 mL of an elution mixture solvent methanol-water containing at least 60% methanol. The method detection limit is 0.1 μg L−1 when percolating 1 L samples through the cartridge. The development of an “online” SPE method based on a mini-SPE column, containing 100 mg of the same sorbent, directly connected to the HPLC system allows the method detection limit to be decreased to 10 ng L−1 with a sample volume of 100 mL. The “offline” SPE method is applied to the analysis of caffeine in wastewater samples, whereas the “on-line” method is used for analysis in natural waters from streams receiving significant water intakes from local wastewater treatment plants

New insights on the crystalline forms in binary systems of n-alkanes: Characterization of the solid ordered phases in the phase diagram tricosane + pentacosane

X-ray diffraction analyses of the pure components n-tricosane and n-pentacosane and of their binary mixed samples have enabled us to characterize the crystalline phases observed at low temperature. On the contrary to what was announced in literature on the structural behavior of mixed samples in odd-odd binary systems with D n = 2, the three domains are not all orthorhombic. This work has enabled us to show that two of the domains are, in fact, monoclinic, (Aa, Z = 4) and the other one is orthorhombic (Pca21, Z = 4). The conclusions drawn in this work can be easily transposed to other binary systems of n-alkanes.

Raman microprobe characterization of electrodeposited S-rich CuIn(S,Se)2 for photovoltaic applications: Microstructural analysis

This article reports a detailed Raman scattering and microstructural characterization of S-rich CuIn(S,Se)2 absorbers produced by electrodeposition of nanocrystalline CuInSe2 precursors and subsequent reactive annealing under sulfurizing conditions. Surface and in-depth resolved Raman microprobe measurements have been correlated with the analysis of the layers by optical and scanning electron microscopy, x-ray diffraction, and in-depth Auger electron spectroscopy. This has allowed corroboration of the high crystalline quality of the sulfurized layers. The sulfurizing conditions used also lead to the formation of a relatively thick MoS2 intermediate layer between the absorber and the Mo back contact. The analysis of the absorbers has also allowed identification of the presence of In-rich secondary phases, which are likely related to the coexistence in the electrodeposited precursors of ordered vacancy compound domains with the main chalcopyrite phase, in spite of the Cu-rich conditions used in the growth. This points out the higher complexity of the electrodeposition and sulfurization processes in relation to those based in vacuum deposition techniques.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Hysteresis and avalanches in the T=0 random field ising model with 2-spin flip dynamics

We study the nonequilibrium behavior of the three-dimensional Gaussian random-field Ising model at T=0 in the presence of a uniform external field using a two-spin-flip dynamics. The deterministic, history-dependent evolution of the system is compared with the one obtained with the standard one-spin-flip dynamics used in previous studies of the model. The change in the dynamics yields a significant suppression of coercivity, but the distribution of avalanches (in number and size) stays remarkably similar, except for the largest ones that are responsible for the jump in the saturation magnetization curve at low disorder in the thermodynamic limit. By performing a finite-size scaling study, we find strong evidence that the change in the dynamics does not modify the universality class of the disorder-induced phase transition.

Optical correlation by use of partial phase-only modulation with VGA liquid-crystal displays

The development of liquid-crystal panels for use in commercial equipment has been aimed at improving the pixel resolution and the display efficiency. These improvements have led to a reduction in the thickness of such devices, among other outcomes, that involves a loss in phase modulation. We propose a modification of the classical phase-only filter to permit displays in VGA liquid-crystal panels with a constant amplitude modulation and less than a 2¿(PI) phase modulation. The method was tested experimentally in an optical setup.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Solid-phase synthesis and DNA binding studies of dichloroplatinum(II) conjugates of dicarba analogues of octreotide as a new anticancer drugs

The first dichloroplatinum(II) conjugates of dicarba analogues of octreotide , which is expected to act as a"tumour-targeting device", have been efficiently synthesized following a stepwise solid-phase approach; these compounds emulate the mechanism of cisplatin since they form a 1,2-intrastrand cross-link with two consecutive guanines of an oligonucleotide.

A comparison of mean phase difference and generalized least squares for analyzing single-case data

The present study focuses on single-case data analysis and specifically on two procedures for quantifying differences between baseline and treatment measurements The first technique tested is based on generalized least squares regression analysis and is compared to a proposed non-regression technique, which allows obtaining similar information. The comparison is carried out in the context of generated data representing a variety of patterns (i.e., independent measurements, different serial dependence underlying processes, constant or phase-specific autocorrelation and data variability, different types of trend, and slope and level change). The results suggest that the two techniques perform adequately for a wide range of conditions and researchers can use both of them with certain guarantees. The regression-based procedure offers more efficient estimates, whereas the proposed non-regression procedure is more sensitive to intervention effects. Considering current and previous findings, some tentative recommendations are offered to applied researchers in order to help choosing among the plurality of single-case data analysis techniques.

Somatostatin Subtype‑2 Receptor-Targeted Metal-Based Anticancer Complexes

Conjugates of a dicarba analogue of octreotide, a potent somatostatin agonist whose receptors are overexpressed on tumor cells, with [PtCl2(dap)] (dap = 1-(carboxylic acid)-1,2-diaminoethane) (3), [(η6-bip)Os(4-CO2-pico)Cl] (bip = biphenyl, pico = picolinate) (4), [(η6-p-cym)RuCl(dap)]+ (p-cym = p-cymene) (5), and [(η6-p-cym)RuCl(imidazole-CO2H)(PPh3)]+ (6), were synthesized by using a solid-phase approach. Conjugates 35 readily underwent hydrolysis and DNA binding, whereas conjugate 6 was inert to ligand substitution. NMR spectroscopy and molecular dynamics calculations showed that conjugate formation does not perturb the overall peptide structure. Only 6 exhibited antiproliferative activity in human tumor cells (IC50 = 63 ± 2 μM in MCF-7 cells and IC50 = 26 ± 3 μM in DU-145 cells) with active participation of somatostatin receptors in cellular uptake. Similar cytotoxic activity was found in a normal cell line (IC50 = 45 ± 2.6 μM in CHO cells), which can be attributed to a similar level of expression of somatostatin subtype-2 receptor. These studies provide new insights into the effect of receptor-binding peptide conjugation on the activity of metal-based anticancer drugs, and demonstrate the potential of such hybrid compounds to target tumor cells specifically.

Equilibrium of the simultaneous etherification ofisobutene and isoamylenes with ethanol inliquid-phase

The simultaneous etherification of isobutene and isoamylenes with ethanol has been studied using macroreticu-lar acid ion-exchange resins as catalyst. Most of the experiments were carried out over Amberlyst-35. In addition,Amberlyst-15 and Purolite CT-275 were also tested. Chemical equilibrium of four chemical reactions was studied:ethyl tert-butyl ether formation, tert-amyl ethyl ether formation from isoamylenes (2-methyl-1-butene and 2-methyl-2-butene) and isomerization reaction between both isoamylenes. Equilibrium data were obtained in a batchwisestirred tank reactor operated at 2.0 MPa and within the temperature range from 323 to 353 K. Experimental molarstandard enthalpy and entropy changes of reaction were determined for each reaction. From these data, the molarenthalpy change of formation of ethyl tert-butyl ether and tert-amyl ethyl ether were estimated. Besides, the chemical equilibrium between both diisobutene dimers, 2,4,4-trimethyl-1-pentene and 2,4,4-trimethyl-2-pentene, wasevaluated. A good agreement between thermodynamic results for the simultaneous etherification carried out in thiswork and those obtained for the isolated ethyl tert-butyl ether and tert-amyl ethyl ether systems was obtained.

High capacity robust audio watermarking scheme based on FFT and linear regression

Peer-reviewed

Association of MMP-2 polymorphisms with severe and very severe COPD: a case control study of MMPs-1, 9 and 12 in a European population.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors play a role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) but are poorly understood. A number of candidate genes have been proposed on the basis of the pathogenesis of COPD. These include the matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) genes which play a role in tissue remodelling and fit in with the protease--antiprotease imbalance theory for the cause of COPD. Previous genetic studies of MMPs in COPD have had inadequate coverage of the genes, and have reported conflicting associations of both single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP haplotypes, plausibly due to under-powered studies. METHODS: To address these issues we genotyped 26 SNPs, providing comprehensive coverage of reported SNP variation, in MMPs- 1, 9 and 12 from 977 COPD patients and 876 non-diseased smokers of European descent and evaluated their association with disease singly and in haplotype combinations. We used logistic regression to adjust for age, gender, centre and smoking history. RESULTS: Haplotypes of two SNPs in MMP-12 (rs652438 and rs2276109), showed an association with severe/very severe disease, corresponding to GOLD Stages III and IV. CONCLUSIONS: Those with the common A-A haplotype for these two SNPs were at greater risk of developing severe/very severe disease (p = 0.0039) while possession of the minor G variants at either SNP locus had a protective effect (adjusted odds ratio of 0.76; 95% CI 0.61 - 0.94). The A-A haplotype was also associated with significantly lower predicted FEV1 (42.62% versus 44.79%; p = 0.0129). This implicates haplotypes of MMP-12 as modifiers of disease severity.