General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint

I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The results overturn some widely held beliefs on fiscal policy effects. The main finding is that expansionary fiscal policy has contractionary effects on output and inflation. Ricardian effects may dominate when fiscal expansions are expected to be adjusted by future tax rises or spending cuts. The evidence supports RBC models with distortionary taxation. We can discard some alternative interpretations that are based on monetary policy reactions or supply-side effects.

Expectativas y volatilidad condicionada: los tipos de interés en el mercado interbancario

En este trabajo examinamos si la teoría de expectativas con primas de liquidez constantes puede explicar la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés de pequeños vencimientos en el mercado interbancario de depósitos español, para datos mensuales desde 1977 hasta 1995. Utilizamos el contraste de Campbell y Shiller (1987) basado en un modelo VAR cointegrado. A partir de las estimaciones consistentes de dicho modelo obtenemos la magnitud y persistencia de los shocks a través de la simulación de la respuesta al impulso, y estimaciones eficientes de los parámetros modelizando la varianza condicional que es variable en el tiempo. En este sentido, se proponen varios esquemas de volatilidad que permiten plantear distintas aproximaciones de laincertidumbre en un entorno multiecuacional GARCH y que están basadas en el modelo de expectativas propuesto. La evidencia empírica muestra que se incumple la teoría de las expectativas, que existe una dinámica conjunta a corto plazo para los tipos de interés y el diferencial que está definida por un modelo VAR(4)-GARCH( 1,1)-BEKK (que está próximo a la integrabilidad en varianza), y que existen distintos factores de riesgo que afectan a las primas en los plazos estudiados

Non-thermal emission from microquasar/ISM interaction

Context. The interaction of microquasar jets with their environment can produce non-thermal radiation as in the case of extragalactic outflows impacting on their surroundings. Significant observational evidence of jet/medium interaction in galactic microquasars has been collected in the past few years, although little theoretical work has been done regarding the resulting non-thermal emission. Aims. In this work, we investigate the non-thermal emission produced in the interaction between microquasar jets and their environment, and the physical conditions for its production. Methods. We developed an analytical model based on those successfully applied to extragalactic sources. The jet is taken to be a supersonic and mildly relativistic hydrodynamical outflow. We focus on the jet/shocked medium structure in its adiabatic phase, and assume that it grows in a self-similar way. We calculate the fluxes and spectra of the radiation produced via synchrotron, inverse Compton, and relativistic bremsstrahlung processes by electrons accelerated in strong shocks. A hydrodynamical simulation is also performed to investigate further the jet interaction with the environment and check the physical parameters used in the analytical model. Results. For reasonable values of the magnetic field, and using typical values of the external matter density, the non-thermal particles could produce significant amounts of radiation at different wavelengths, although they do not cool primarily radiatively, but by adiabatic losses. The physical conditions of the analytical jet/medium interaction model are consistent with those found in the hydrodynamical simulation. Conclusions. Microquasar jet termination regions could be detectable at radio wavelengths for current instruments sensitive to ~arcminute scales. At X-ray energies, the expected luminosities are moderate, although the emitter is more compact than the radio one. The source may be detectable by XMM-Newton or Chandra, with 1-10 arcsec of angular resolution. The radiation at gamma-ray energies may be within the detection limits of the next generation of satellite and ground-based instruments.

Evolución de la NAIRU en la economía española: una estimación mediante el filtro de Kalman

La tasa de paro de inflación estable (NAIRU) describe aquella tasa de desempleo que se alcanza en el equilibrio entre las reivindicaciones salariales de los trabajadores y los objetivos de beneficio de las empresas. En este trabajo se desarrolla un enfoque teórico general que permite determinar el nivel de la NAIRU. Esta cuestión adquiere una especial trascendencia teórica y empírica si se tiene en cuenta que esta tasa de paro de equilibrio ha aumentado en la mayoría de países europeos. Sin embargo, esta tasa de paro de equilibrio no puede observarse directamente por lo que se recurre a su estimación econométrica a partir del filtro de Kalman. Para ilustrar la potencialidad del modelo desarrollado y la influencia de la determinadas variables relacionadas con la distribución de las rentas salariales, se analiza cual ha sido la evolución de la NAIRU para la economía española en el periodo 1964-2004.