Comparación de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de coeficientes fijos frente a variables en los modelos econométricos regionales: un análisis para Cataluña

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un creciente interés en nuestro país en relación a las economías regionales dada la necesidad de los gobiernos regionales de obtener información sobre sus economías para así llevar a cabo actuaciones de política económica más efectivas y eficientes. En este marco, los modelos econométricos constituyen una herramienta de utilidad puesto que ofrecen información sobre las relaciones estructurales que se dan en una economía y permiten predecir su evolución. Sin embargo, la utilización de dichos modelos con finalidad predictiva se enfrenta al inconveniente de la elevada inestabilidad a corto plazo que se produce en las relaciones entre variables económicas a nivel regional. Por este motivo, en el presente trabajo se propone la utilización de un modelo de coeficientes variables para recoger dicha inestabilidad y mejorar las predicciones sobre la evolución de las variables del bloque de producción de la economía catalana. Para contrastar la mejora obtenida a partir de la aplicación de dicho modelo, se compara su capacidad predictiva con la de un modelo de coeficientes fijos. Los resultados muestran un mejor comportamiento del modelo de coeficientes variables frente al modelo de coeficientes fijos.

El fotorreactor elíptico

In this paper, the mathematical model of the elliptical photoreactor , an special type of reactor that uses ultraviolet radiation, is presented. In the elliptical photoreactor the cylindrical reactor is irradiated from the outside by placing the lamp and the reactor at the foci of an elliptical reflector. The two main models of radiation -radial and difusse- are studied, an finally the general method of resolution of the mathematical model and its resolution in certain simple cases is shown.

Cálculo de evaporadores de múltiple efecto en paralelo. Parte I: Modelo matemático y análisis del mismo

En el presente artículo se desarrolla el modelo matemático de un sistema de evaporadores de múltiple efecto operando en paralelo. Se analiza asimismo el modelo matemático para hallar el número de grados de libertad del sistema y la forma de consumir esos grados de libertad.

Cálculo de evaporadores de múltiple efecto en paralelo: Parte II. Resolución del modelo matemático y un ejemplo numérico

En el presente artículo se expone la resolución mediante calculador digital, del modelo matemático de evaporadores de múltiple efecto que fue publicado en Química e Industria, en el número del pasado mes de febrero.

La modelización de la propagación de epidemias

Sobre l' estudi de la propagació de les epidèmies utilitzant models matemàtics

Análisis composicional de datos en Ciencias Geoambientales

Compositional data (concentrations) are common in geosciences. Neglecting its character mey lead to erroneous conclusions. Spurious correlation (K. Pearson, 1897) has disastrous consequences. On the basis of the pioneering work by J. Aitchison in the 1980s, a methodology free of these drawbacks is now available. The geometry of the símplex allows the representation of compositions using orthogonal co-ordinares, to which usual statistical methods can be applied, thus facilating computation ans analysis. The use of (log) ratios precludes the interpretation of single concentrations disregarding their relative character. A hydro-chemical data set is used to illustrate the point

Palaeolithic Populations and Waves of Advance

The wave-of-advance model has been previously applied to Neolithic human range expansions, yielding good agreement to the speeds inferred from archaeological data. Here, we apply it for the first time to Palaeolithic human expansions by using reproduction and mobility parameters appropriate to hunter-gatherers (instead of the corresponding values for preindustrial farmers). The order of magnitude of the predicted speed is in agreement with that implied by the AMS radiocarbon dating of the lateglacial human recolonization of northern Europe (14.2–12.5 kyr BP). We argue that this makes it implausible for climate change to have limited the speed of the recolonization front. It is pointed out that a similar value for the speed can be tentatively inferred from the archaeological data on the expansion of modern humans into the Levant and Europe (42–36 kyr BP)

Approximate solution to the speed of spreading viruses

Recently, it has been shown that the speed of virus infections can be explained by time-delayed reactiondiffusion [J. Fort and V. Me´ndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 178101 (2002)], but no analytical solutions were found. Here we derive formulas for the front speed, valid in appropriate limits. We also integrate numerically the evolution equations of the system. There is good agreement with both numerical and experimental speeds

Effects of punishment in a mobile population playing the prisoner’s dilemma game

We deal with a system of prisoner’s dilemma players undergoing continuous motion in a two-dimensional plane. In contrast to previous work, we introduce altruistic punishment after the game. We find punishing only a few of the cooperator-defector interactions is enough to lead the system to a cooperative state in environments where otherwise defection would take over the population. This happens even with soft nonsocial punishment (where both cooperators and defectors punish other players, a behavior observed in many human populations). For high enough mobilities or temptations to defect, low rates of social punishment can no longer avoid the breakdown of cooperation

Cohabitation effect on the slowdown of the Neolithic expansion

We introduce the effect of cohabitation between generations to a previous model on the slowdown of the Neolithic transition in Europe. This effect consists on the fact that human beings do not leave their children alone when they migrate, but on the contrary they cohabit until their children reach adulthood. We also use archaeological data to estimate the variation of the Mesolithic population density with distance, and use this information to predict the slowdown of the Neolithic front speed. The new equation leads to a substantial correction, up to 37%, relative to previous results. The new model is able to provide a satisfactory explanation not only to the relative speed but also to the absolute speed of the Neolithic front obtained from archaeological data

Vertical cultural transmission effects on demic front propagation: Theory and application to the Neolithic transition in Europe

It is shown that Lotka-Volterra interaction terms are not appropriate to describe vertical cultural transmission. Appropriate interaction terms are derived and used to compute the effect of vertical cultural transmission on demic front propagation. They are also applied to a specific example, the Neolithic transition in Europe. In this example, it is found that the effect of vertical cultural transmission can be important (about 30%). On the other hand, simple models based on differential equations can lead to large errors (above 50%). Further physical, biophysical, and cross-disciplinary applications are outlined

Time-Delayed Spread of Viruses in Growing Plaques

The spread of viruses in growing plaques predicted by classical models is greater than that measured experimentally. There is a widespread belief that this discrepancy is due to biological factors. Here we show that the observed speeds can be satisfactorily predicted by a purely physical model that takes into account the delay time due to virus reproduction inside infected cells. No free or adjustable parameters are used

The economic value of reciprocal bilingualism

Some bilingual societies exhibit a distribution of language skills that can- not be explained by economic theories that portray languages as pure commu- nication devices. Such distribution of skills are typically the result of public policies that promote bilingualism among members of both speech commu- nities (reciprocal bilingualism). In this paper I argue that these policies are likely to increase social welfare by diminishing economic and social segmenta- tion between the two communities. However, these gains tend to be unequally distributed over the two communities. As a result, in a large range of circum- stances these policies might not draw su¢ cient support. The model is built upon the communicative value of languages, but also emphasizes the role of linguistic preferences in the behavior of bilingual individuals.

Imperfectly informed voters and strategic extremism

We analyze a unidimensional model of two-candidate electoral competition where voters have im- perfect information about the candidates' policy proposals, that is, voters cannot observe the exact policy proposals of the candidates but only which candidate offers the most leftist/rightist platform. We assume that candidates are purely office motivated and that one candidate enjoys a valence advan- tage over the other. We characterize the unique Sequential Equilibrium in very-weakly undominated strategies of the game. In this equilibrium the behavior of the two candidates tends to maximum extremism, due to the voters' lack of information. But it may converge or diverge depending on the size of the advantage. For small values of the advantage candidates converge to the extreme policy most preferred by the median and for large values of the advantage candidates strategies diverge: each candidate specializes in a different extreme policy. These results are robust to the introduction of a proportion of well informed voters. In this case the degree of extremism decreases when the voters become more informed.

Quantificació de l'error comès pels models de níxol ecològic al predir la distribució d'especies generalistes

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of California at Berkeley, from September to December 2007. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) techniques are powerful tools to predict species potential distributions. In the last ten years, a plethora of novel methodological approaches and modelling techniques have been developed. During three months, I stayed at the University of California, Berkeley, working under the supervision of Dr. David R. Vieites. The aim of our work was to quantify the error committed by these techniques, but also to test how an increase in the sample size affects the resultant predictions. Using MaxEnt software we generated distribution predictive maps, from different sample sizes, of the Eurasian quail (Coturnix coturnix) in the Iberian Peninsula. The quail is a generalist species from a climatic point of view, but an habitat specialist. The resultant distribution maps were compared with the real distribution of the species. This distribution was obtained from recent bird atlases from Spain and Portugal. Results show that ENM techniques can have important errors when predicting the species distribution of generalist species. Moreover, an increase of sample size is not necessary related with a better performance of the models. We conclude that a deep knowledge of the species’ biology and the variables affecting their distribution is crucial for an optimal modelling. The lack of this knowledge can induce to wrong conclusions.