Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Knowledge misallocation and growth

We develop a growth model where knowledge is embodied in individuals and diffused across sectors through labor mobility. The existence of labor mobility costs constrains mobility and, thus, generates labor misallocation. Different levels of labor misallocation imply different levels of exploitation of available knowledge and, therefore, different total factor productivity across countries. We derive a positive relationship between growth and labor mobility, which is consistent with the empirical evidence, by assuming aggregate constant returns to capital. We also analyze the short and long run effects of labor mobility costs in the case of decreasing returns to capital. It turns out that changes in mobility costs have larger economic effects when different types of worker have small rather than large complementarities. Finally, we show that different labor income taxes or labor market tightness imply different rates of labor mobility and, therefore, can explain differences in Gross Domestic Product across countries.

A dynamic analysis of asymmetric shocks in EU manufacturing

Available empirical evidence regarding the degree of symmetry between European economies in the context of Monetary Unification is not conclusive. This paper offers new empirical evidence concerning this issue related to the manufacturing sector. Instead of using a static approach as most empirical studies do, we analyse the dynamic evolution of shock symmetry using a state-space model. The results show a clear reduction of asymmetries in terms of demand shocks between 1975 and 1996, with an increase in terms of supply shocks at the end of the period.

Local human capital and productivity: An analysis for Spanish regions

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the stock of human capital and productivity in the Spanish regions (NUTS III), and assess whether the transmission channel involves external economies. The empirical evidence points to a positive relationship between the two variables, although it cannot be explained in terms of the impact of exogenous local human capital external economies, but rather in terms of other demand factors.

Wages and productivity: the role of labour market institutions in OECD countries

In the context of a monetary union, to keep a territorial equilibrium in terms of economic activity and employment, the relationship between real wages and productivity is crucial. In this paper, empirical evidence about the response of wages to productivity is obtained for 20 OECD countries and the role of labour market institutions to explain differences in this response is analysed.

Student experiences in a course blended learning

Fascination is a project for design students, developed jointly by the Technical University of Catalonia (UPC) and the University of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT), which works with two groups of students, one group of participants in Spain and another group in Thailand where, hands-on activities, a range of technologies are used to prepare students for the lessons, through learning activities and content. This research paper presents the test of both a general model and a tool for measuring the participants’ experiences in a course that uses a blended learning methodology, with the aim of collecting empirical evidence to justify the effort of applying this methodology, based on the participants’ satisfaction. The procedure used in the conceptualization of the survey, the generation of topics, the collection of data, and the validation of the scale of various items are described here. The information, provided by the 26 people surveyed about the course and the virtual environment that was used, was analyzed to measure their perceptions and explore possible relations. Finally the conclusions of the research and the future work are presented.

Lenguaje y Teoría de la mente: una aproximación multidimensional

El propósito de este trabajo es realizar una puesta al día sobre las relaciones entre el desarrollo del lenguaje y el desarrollo de la Teoría de la Mente. Entre las hipótesis propuestas para conceptualizar dichas relaciones, realizamos un examen más exhaustivo de aquellos modelos que apoyan una implicación directa entre lenguaje y Teoría de la Mente. En este contexto, en primer lugar subrayamos la necesidad de ampliar dicha noción para incluir habilidades anteriores y posteriores a la comprensión de la falsa creencia. En segundo lugar, examinamos las diferentes hipótesis acerca de los aspectos del lenguaje más vinculados al desarrollo sociocognitivo, y las principales evidencias empíricas que las sustentan. Finalmente, discutimos un modelo de causalidad recíproca donde los vínculos entre lenguaje y Teoría de la Mente variarán según el momento del desarrollo considerado

Brain size and evolutionary diversification in birds

The role of behavior in evolution remains controversial, despite that some ideas are over 100 years old. Changes in behavior are generally believed to enhance evolution by exposing individuals to new selective pressures and by facilitating range expansions. However, this hypothesis lacks firm empirical evidence. Moreover, behavioral changes can also inhibit evolution by hiding heritable variation from natural selection. Taking advantage of the complete phylogeny of extant birds, a new species-level measure of past diversification rate and the best existing measures of brain size (n = 1326 species), I show here that relative brain size is associated (albeit weakly) with diversification rates. Assuming that brain relative size reflects behavioral flexibility, an assumption well-supported by evidence, this finding supports the idea that behavior can enhance evolutionary diversification. This view is further supported by the discovery that the most important factor influencing diversification rates is ecological generalism, which is believed to require behavioral flexibility. Thus, behavioral changes that expose animals to a variety of environments can have played an important role in the evolution of birds.