Are these classical business cycles?

The aim of this paper is to test formally the classical business cyclehypothesis, using data from industrialized countries for the timeperiod since 1960. The hypothesis is characterized by the view that the cyclical structure in GDP is concentrated in the investment series: fixed investment has typically a long cycle, while the cycle in inventory investment is shorter. To check the robustness of our results, we subject the data for 15 OECD countries to a variety of detrending techniques. While the hypothesis is not confirmed uniformly for all countries, there is a considerably high number for which the data display the predicted pattern. None of the countries shows a pattern which can be interpreted as a clear rejection of the classical hypothesis.

Causes of subcontracting: Evidence from panel data on construction firms

This paper examines factors explaining subcontracting decisions in the construction industry. Rather than the more common cross-sectional analyses, we use panel data to evaluate the influence of all relevant variables. We design and use a new index of the closeness to small numbers situations to estimate the extent of hold-up problems. Results show that as specificity grows, firms tend to subcontract less. The opposite happens when output heterogeneity and the use of intangible assets and capabilities increase. Neither temporary shortage of capacity nor geographical dispersion of activities seem to affect the extent of subcontracting. Finally, proxies for uncertainty do not show any clear effect.

Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.

Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles

Business cycles are both less volatile and more synchronized with the world cycle in rich countries than in poor ones. We develop two alternative explanations based on the idea that comparative advantage causes rich countries to specialize in industries that use new technologies operated by skilled workers, while poor countries specialize in industries that use traditional technologies operated by unskilled workers. Since new technologies are difficult to imitate, the industries of rich countries enjoy more market power and face more inelastic product demands than those of poor countries. Since skilled workers are less likely to exit employment as a result of changes in economic conditions, industries in rich countries face more inelastic labour supplies than those of poor countries. We show that either asymmetry in industry characteristics can generate cross-country differences in business cycles that resemble those we observe in the data.

Do institutional changes affect business cycles? Evidence from Europe

We study the effects that the Maastricht treaty, the creation of the ECB, andthe Euro changeover had on the dynamics of European business cycles using a panelVAR and data from ten European countries - seven from the Euro area and threeoutside of it. There are changes in the features of European business cycles and in thetransmission of shocks. They precede the three events of interest and are more linkedto a general process of European convergence and synchronization.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Man-bites-dog business cycles

The newsworthiness of an event is partly determined by how unusual it isand this paper investigates the business cycle implications of this fact. In particular, weanalyze the consequences of information structures in which some types of signals are morelikely to be observed after unusual events. Such signals may increase both uncertainty anddisagreement among agents and when embedded in a simple business cycle model, can helpus understand why we observe (i) occasional large changes in macro economic aggregatevariables without a correspondingly large change in underlying fundamentals (ii) persistentperiods of high macroeconomic volatility and (iii) a positive correlation between absolutechanges in macro variables and the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations as measuredby survey data. These results are consequences of optimal updating by agents when theavailability of some signals is positively correlated with tail-events. The model is estimatedby likelihood based methods using individual survey responses and a quarterly time seriesof total factor productivity along with standard aggregate time series. The estimated modelsuggests that there have been episodes in recent US history when the impact on outputof innovations to productivity of a given magnitude was more than eight times as largecompared to other times.

El suport familiar en la malaltia mental: influència del suport familiar en el control de la malaltia en una persona que pateix un transtorn mental server

Aquest treball té com a objectiu principal conèixer si hi ha millora en el control de la malaltia d’una persona que pateix un trastorn mental sever quan disposa d’un suport adequat de la família. Els objectius específics marcats són, avaluar la càrrega familiar que suposa tenir la responsabilitat de cuidar un familiar amb malaltia mental, conèixer les actituds dels familiars de persones que pateixen una malaltia mental, involucrar a la família dins de la teràpia del familiar amb malaltia mental severa, i aconseguir un grau de cooperació i comunicació favorable de la família al pacient. Es tracta d’un estudi d’investigació quantitatiu, transversal i de tipus analític, el qual la mostra de la població estudiada estarà composta de 100 pacients entre 20 i 30 anys amb diagnòstic de trastorn mental sever segons el DSM-IV, atesos durant l’últim any en el Centre de Salut Mental d’Adults de Vic i els seus cuidadors principals o persones més properes. Es realitzarà recollida de dades a través de la revisió de les històries clíniques, informació facilitada pel terapeuta que tracta al pacient i entrevistes als familiars cuidadors o persona més propera i als mateixos pacients. Aquesta entrevista la faran professionals entrenats i competents. Amb tot això s’establirà una correlació entre les variables d’estrès, suport als familiars i el desenvolupament dels rols, i s’agruparan les variables de manera que quedin estructurades en subgrups.

Implantació d'un sistema SCADA en una cèl·lula flexible de fabricació

La Universitat de Vic disposa, entre altres equips, d’una cèl·lula flexible de fabricació, del fabricant Festo, que simula un procés de formació de palets amb els productes que es disposen en un magatzem intermedi. Aquesta cèl·lula està composta de quatre estacions de muntatge diferenciades (càrrega de palets, càrrega de plaques, magatzem intermedi i transport). Cada una disposa d'un PLC SIEMENS S7-300 per la seva automatització, i tots aquests es troben interconnectats amb una xarxa industrial Profibus. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és implantar el sistema SCADA Vijeo Citect pel control i supervisió de l'estació magatzem d'aquesta cèl·lula flexible de fabricació, establint també un intercanvi de dades entre l'SCADA i el Microsoft Access, per poder ser utilitzat per la docència. Aquest projecte s'ha desenvolupat en cinc fases diferents: 1. La primera fase s'ha dedicat a l'automatització pròpiament de l'estació magatzem a partir de l'autòmat programable Siemens S7-300 i complint amb les necessitats plantejades. 2. En la segona fase s'ha programat i establert la comunicació per l'intercanvi de dades (lectura i escriptura) entre el sistema SCADA Vijeo Citect i la base de dades de Microsoft Access. 3. En la tercera fase s'ha elaborat i programat l'entorn gràfic de supervisió i control del procés a partir del sistema SCADA Vijeo Citect. 4. En la quarta fase s'ha instal·lat un OPC Server en el PC i s'ha establert la comunicació entre el PLC i el sistema SCADA. 5. Finalment s'ha anat revisant i depurant les diferents programacions i comunicacions per tal de que el sistema funcioni com a un conjunt.

Ambient intelligence application based on environmental measurements performed with an assistant mobile robot

This paper proposes the use of an autonomous assistant mobile robot in order to monitor the environmental conditions of a large indoor area and develop an ambient intelligence application. The mobile robot uses single high performance embedded sensors in order to collect and geo-reference environmental information such as ambient temperature, air velocity and orientation and gas concentration. The data collected with the assistant mobile robot is analyzed in order to detect unusual measurements or discrepancies and develop focused corrective ambient actions. This paper shows an example of the measurements performed in a research facility which have enabled the detection and location of an uncomfortable temperature profile inside an office of the research facility. The ambient intelligent application has been developed by performing some localized ambient measurements that have been analyzed in order to propose some ambient actuations to correct the uncomfortable temperature profile.

Semantic Web applications: a framework for industry and business exploitation – What is needed for the adoption of the Semantic Web from the market and industry

In recent years, Semantic Web (SW) research has resulted in significant outcomes. Various industries have adopted SW technologies, while the ‘deep web’ is still pursuing the critical transformation point, in which the majority of data found on the deep web will be exploited through SW value layers. In this article we analyse the SW applications from a ‘market’ perspective. We are setting the key requirements for real-world information systems that are SW-enabled and we discuss the major difficulties for the SW uptake that has been delayed. This article contributes to the literature of SW and knowledge management providing a context for discourse towards best practices on SW-based information systems.

The Significance of Business Exit for Future Entrepreneurial Activity

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of business exits on future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity at the macroeconomic level. Design/methodology/approach: This research uses the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) data for 41 countries and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to carry out the analysis. The paper differentiates the effect of the two components of total entrepreneurial activity, and the two motivations for it – opportunity and necessity entrepreneurship. Findings: The results presented here show a positive and significant effect of the coefficient associated with exits in all models. This means that the levels of entrepreneurial activity exceed business exits. The robustness of the models are tested, including other variables such as the fear of failure, the Gross Domestic Product, role models, entrepreneurial skills and the unemployment variables. The main hypothesis which stated that at national level business exits imply greater rates of opportunity-driven entrepreneurship is corroborated. Originality/value: One would expect that unemployment rates would imply higher levels of necessity entrepreneurship. However, results show that unemployment rates do in fact favour opportunity entrepreneurship levels. This could be due to those government policies that are aimed at promoting entrepreneurship through the capitalization of unemployment to be totally invested in a new start-up. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first panel data study to link previous exit rates to future dimensions of entrepreneurial activity. Keywords: Entrepreneurship, business exits, social values, industrial organization Paper type: Research paper

The Impact of Doing Business Regulations on Investments in ICT

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Ambient intelligence application based on environmental measurements performed with an assistant mobile robot

This paper proposes the use of an autonomous assistant mobile robot in order to monitor the environmental conditions of a large indoor area and develop an ambient intelligence application. The mobile robot uses single high performance embedded sensors in order to collect and geo-reference environmental information such as ambient temperature, air velocity and orientation and gas concentration. The data collected with the assistant mobile robot is analyzed in order to detect unusual measurements or discrepancies and develop focused corrective ambient actions. This paper shows an example of the measurements performed in a research facility which have enabled the detection and location of an uncomfortable temperature profile inside an office of the research facility. The ambient intelligent application has been developed by performing some localized ambient measurements that have been analyzed in order to propose some ambient actuations to correct the uncomfortable temperature profile.