Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

The determinants of CAP reform: learning from the European financial crisis and CAP 2013

There is an ongoing debate on which are the determinants of CAP reform. The economic environment has not been contemplated as a direct determinant of CAP reform but its proxy, the budget, has not only been looked at as such but underlined as a key cause of CAP reform. This paper argues, however, that the budget does not affect the modus operandi of the CAP. It affects the quantity of support each farmer is going to get and sometimes even the timing of the reform, but not the form it is going to receive it. Other CAP determinants and international negotiations in particular, have an impact on the substance of CAP reform. This hypothesis is not contradicted by an analysis of CAP 2013 changes.

How did the Financial Crisis affect the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?

We investigate the effects of the financial crisis on the stationarity of real interest rates in the Euro Area. We use a new unit root test developed by Peseran et al. (2013) that allows for multiple unobserved factors in a panel set up. Our results suggest that while short-term and long-term real interest rates were stationary before the financial crisis, they became nonstationary during the crisis period likely due to persistent risk that characterized financial markets during that time. JEL codes: E43, C23. Keywords: Real interest rates, Euro Area, financial crisis, panel unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence.

Modelling Interbank Relations during the International Financial Crisis

This paper examines the effects of the current financial crisis on the correlations of four international banking stocks. We find that in the beginning of the crisis banks generally show a transition to a higher correlation followed by a dramatic decline towards the end of 2008. These findings are consistent with both traditional contagion theory and the more recent network theory of contagion. JEL classifications: C51; G15 Keywords: Financial Crises; Contagion; Interbank Markets.

The monetary pillar and the great financial crisis

Since its inception, a most distinctive (and controversial) feature of the ECB monetary policy strategy has been its emphasis on money and monetary analysis, which constitute the basis of the so-called monetary pillar. The present paper examines the performance of the monetary pillar around the recent financial crisis episode, and discusses its prospects in light of the renewed emphasis on financial stability and the need for enhanced macro-prudential policies.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Being Global? La crisis y los museos virtuales en arte público y diseño urbano

Este trabajo surge de la experiencia desarrollada en Barcelona, Zaragoza y Lisboa de puesta en marcha de los respectivos sistemas de información del Arte Público de estas ciudades, así como del desarrollo de investigación posibilitado por los proyectos BHA2002- 00520;HUM2005-00420;HUM2006-12803-C02-01, HAR 2009-13989-C02-01, del Ministerior de Ciencia e Innvoción español y de los proyectos 2005SGR00150 y 2009SGR903 de la Generalitat de Catalunya, así como de los distintos convenios entre la Universidad y el Ayuntamiento de Barcelona. Sorprendentemente, en el panorama de la innovación internacional, son proyectos del sur de Europa los que plantean por primera vez un uso sistemático de Internet para el mejor conocimiento y difusión de esta parte del patrimonio que es el Arte Público de las ciudades, una historia escrita en bronce y piedra que forma parte de la herencia cultural, de las raíces identitarias y del orgullo de ciudad Sin embargo, la crisis internacional supone un frenazo importante a estos proyectos y a la posibilidad de desarrollar un Museo Virtual del Arte Público y el Diseño Urbano.

El capitalismo y sus crisis, ¿qué tipo de crisis?

El capitalismo está hoy atravesando un momento de turbulencias estructurales. Para unos se trata de una crisis económica, para otros de una crisis financiera y, aún para algún otro autor, mas bien debería hablarse de una crisis global de sociedad. ¿Pueden tan diversas opiniones converger en sus análisis? No es tarea fácil ya que cada cual suele hablar desde su propia perspectiva académica, cuando no, incluso circunscrito a un determinado enfoque teórico. Además, la mayoría de los debates han girado en torno a la economía y la corriente principal de la ciencia económica, la teoría neoclásica, por su propia naturaleza es incapaz de aportar más claridad. Los supuestos en los que basa sus modelos y teorías, que tanto cientifismo le han conferido, impiden precisamente captar la dimensión del fenómeno. De ahí salen algunas recetas para intentar paliar nuestros males, como por ejemplo, la sugerencia de que si dejamos actuar a los mercados, su lógica va a conducir a reparar los desajustes que se han venido produciendo. Pero, ¿qué son los mercados? ¿se trata de algo mágico que actúa con finalidad propia y con un objetivo específico?

A crise europeia: excepcionalidade econômica, gestão autoritária e emergência de formas ativas de resistência civil = The European crisis: economic exceptionality, authoritarian rulings and the emergence of active forms of civil resistance

Thirty years after neo-liberalism hegemony, the states shows its incapacity for driving democratically exceptional situations like global economical crisis. In this context, it seems a particularly interesting issue to exam the popular alternatives that are growing to reject the institutional paralysis. This work take these problems since European perspective, especially this one of Spain, and its scope is justify the new forms of civil disobedience that are growing. They are analyzed not like"paradoxes" of democracy, but like necessary instruments of participative democracy into a really exceptional scenario

Impacte de la crisi econòmica en una destinació de sol i platja: cas Platja d’Aro

La crisi econòmica és un fet molt recent, però pel qual mai s’està preparat. El gran allau de notícies tant en mitjans televisius, com de radio, diaris, etc., els quals en parlen constantment, ha motivat la curiositat per esbrinar si la crisi econòmica està afectant al sector turístic i de quina manera. Com és sabut, des de fa ja uns anys es parla de les destinacions en crisi, d’un turisme de sol i platja en crisi, ja que les noves destinacions estan fent ombra a aquelles que durant els 70 i 80 van tenir un boom i una gran acceptació, la qual cosa fa pensar que la situació actual de la crisi econòmica pot fer agreujar aquest estat de davallada del turisme de masses

Crisi i pobresa infantil a Catalunya

Aquest treball radiografia la pobresa infantil a Catalunya en el context d"adversitat econòmica que estem vivint. Les anàlisis realitzades posen en relleu que Catalunya presenta nivells de pobresa infantil molt alts quan es compara amb altres països europeus, i les tendències que s"apunten en els darrers anys són negatives. La nostra investigació discuteix, en primer lloc, la magnitud del fenomen, la seva evolució i els principals perfils socials. En segon lloc parem atenció al tipus d"experiències de la privació en les llars on viuen infants, rastrejant els canvis que es produeixen entre l"any 2007 i 2010. Per acabar, analitzem l"impacte de les transferències públiques sobre la pobresa infantil a Catalunya i als països de la Unió Europea 15. Evidenciem les enormes limitacions de les polítiques públiques vigents al nostre país per corregir fenòmens de pobresa i privació. El treball acaba alertant sobre les conseqüències a les quals ens aboca el fet de relegar la inversió social en infància i planteja una sèrie de propostes.

La necesaria transformación del modelo productivo en España: el papel del territorio.

El fracàs de les bases del model productiu espanyol fonamentat en una baixa productivitat s'ha traduït en una incapacitat absoluta de reacció enfront de la crisi econòmica amb creixents taxes d'atur i un greu estancament del PIB. El principal repte de l'economia espanyola requereix d'apostes decidides per pilars en els quals se sustenti un nou model productiu, això és, la creativitat, la innovació i el coneixement. Aquest article abordarà en primer lloc el marc teòric en el qual s'emmarca el paper que assumeix el territori al segle XXI com a motor de canvi econòmic. Seguidament, s'identifiquessin els aspectes clau de l'actual model productiu i a continuació s'estudiarà la contribució del territori al canvi de model sobre la base de quatre grans àrees metropolitanes: Madrid, Barcelona, València i Bilbao. Finalment, s'incidirà en les recomanacions de política pública a la llum dels anteriors resultats.

Similituds i diferències entre l'actual crisi financera i la japonesa de 1990

L'estudi de la reacció d'una societat després de l'esclat d'una bombolla financera és l'aspecte que motiva l'inici d'aquesta recerca. En l'actualitat l'estat espanyol es troba immers en una situació financera compromesa, però aquesta situació és comparable amb altres economies. L'objectiu principal d'aquesta recerca és la comparació de l'experiència japonesa amb l'actual crisi del sistema financer espanyol.

Salvador Giner: El futur del Capitalisme

Crítica del llibre: 'El futur del capitalisme' de Giner, Salvador

Sovereigns and banks in the euro area : a tale of two crises

This study attempts to identify and trace inter-linkages between sovereign and banking risk in the euro area. To this end, we use an indicator of banking risk in each country based on the Contingent Claim Analysis literature, and 10-year government yield spreads over Germany as a measure of sovereign risk. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in 10 euro area countries, allowing us to check for contagion in the form of a significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of contagion vary considerably in both directions over time and within the different EMU countries. Significantly, we find that causal linkages tend to strengthen particularly at the time of major financial crises. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of contagion, mainly from banks to sovereigns.