A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation.

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long argued that excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there is little empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in this way. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence of moves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward induction provides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. We conduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data the incumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forward induction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicate that players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without having to pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not drive out this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, a theoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Forward induction and the excess capacity puzzle: An experimental investigation

While the theoretical industrial organization literature has long arguedthat excess capacity can be used to deter entry into markets, there islittle empirical evidence that incumbent firms effectively behave in thisway. Bagwell and Ramey (1996) propose a game with a specific sequence ofmoves and partially-recoverable capacity costs in which forward inductionprovides a theoretical rationalization for firm behavior in the field. Weconduct an experiment with a game inspired by their work. In our data theincumbent tends to keep the market, in contrast to what the forwardinduction argument of Bagwell and Ramey would suggest. The results indicatethat players perceive that the first mover has an advantage without havingto pre-commit capacity. In our game, evolution and learning do not driveout this perception. We back these claims with data analysis, atheoretical framework for dynamics, and simulation results.

Tacit collusion and capacity withholding in repeated uniform price auctions

This paper contributes to the study of tacit collusion by analyzing infinitely repeated multiunit uniform price auctions in a symmetric oligopoly with capacity constrained firms. Under both the Market Clearing and Maximum Accepted Price rules of determining the uniform price, we show that when each firm sets a price-quantity pair specifying the firm's minimum acceptable price and the maximum quantity the firm is willing to sell at this price, there exists a range of discount factors for which the monopoly outcome with equal sharing is sustainable in the uniform price auction, but not in the corresponding discriminatory auction. Moreover, capacity withholding may be necessary to sustain this out-come. We extend these results to the case where firms may set bids that are arbitrary step functions of price-quantity pairs with any finite number of price steps. Surprisingly, under the Maximum Accepted Price rule, firms need employ no more than two price steps to minimize the value of the discount factor

Asymmetries in the capacity-inflation trade-off

This paper analyzes the joint dynamics of two key macroeconomic variables for the conduct of monetary policy: inflation and the aggregate capacity utilization rate. An econometric procedure useful for estimating dynamic rational expectation models with unobserved components is developed and applied in this context. The method combines the flexibility of the unobserved components approach, based on the Kalman recursion, with the power of the general method of moments estimation procedure. A 'hyb id' Phillips curve relating inflation to the capacity utilization gap and incorporating forward and backward looking components is estimated. The results show that such a relationship in non-linear: the slope of the Phillips curve depends significantly on the magnitude of the capacity gap. These findings provide support for studying the implications of asymmetricmonetary policy rules.

Endogenous capacity utilization and the asymmetric effects of monetary policy

This paper investigates the role of variable capacity utilization as a source of asymmetries in the relationship between monetary policy and economic activity within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The source of the asymmetry is directly linked to the bottlenecks and stock-outs that emerge from the existence of capacity constraints in the real side of the economy. Money has real effects due to the presence of rigidities in households' portfolio decisions in the form of a Luces-Fuerst 'limited participation' constraint. The model features variable capacity utilization rates across firms due to demand uncertainty. A monopolistic competitive structure provides additional effects through optimal mark-up changes. The overall message of this paper for monetary policy is that the same actions may have different effects depending on the capacity utilization rate of the economy.

Lipschitz harmonic capacity and Bilipschitz images of cantor sets

For bilipschitz images of Cantor sets in Rd we estimate the Lipschitz harmonic capacity and show this capacity is invariant under bilipschitz homeomorphisms.

Memoria – beca BE2005

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Centre for Interdisciplinary studies in Environment and Development (CISED), located in Bangalore (Southern India), from September to December 2005. A field-work in the South Indian city of Chennai (former Madras) was developed to analyse the mounting urban (and peri-urban) water crisis. In view of tackling this matter, the state government has done a deal to construct a 100 million litres per day seawater desalination plant. Due to its relative energy-intensiveness (compared to conventional water supply means), the fact that such a large capacity plant will be located in poor country such as India, constitutes somewhat of a surprising novelty, as most desalination facilities in the world are to be found in the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries. This work faces the environmental impact, the energy-intensive technology required, the cost and the missed water management options

Simulations of parasitic and intrinsic capacitances related to Multiple-Gate-Field-Effect Transistor architectures

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium, from March until June 2007. In the first part, the impact of important geometrical parameters such as source and drain thickness, fin spacing, spacer width, etc. on the parasitic fringing capacitance component of multiple-gate field-effect transistors (MuGFET) is deeply analyzed using finite element simulations. Several architectures such as single gate, FinFETs (double gate), triple-gate represented by Pi-gate MOSFETs are simulated and compared in terms of channel and fringing capacitances for the same occupied die area. Simulations highlight the great impact of diminishing the spacing between fins for MuGFETs and the trade-off between the reduction of parasitic source and drain resistances and the increase of fringing capacitances when Selective Epitaxial Growth (SEG) technology is introduced. The impact of these technological solutions on the transistor cut-off frequencies is also discussed. The second part deals with the study of the effect of the volume inversion (VI) on the capacitances of undoped Double-Gate (DG) MOSFETs. For that purpose, we present simulation results for the capacitances of undoped DG MOSFETs using an explicit and analytical compact model. It monstrates that the transition from volume inversion regime to dual gate behaviour is well simulated. The model shows an accurate dependence on the silicon layer thickness,consistent withtwo dimensional numerical simulations, for both thin and thick silicon films. Whereas the current drive and transconductance are enhanced in volume inversion regime, our results show thatintrinsic capacitances present higher values as well, which may limit the high speed (delay time) behaviour of DG MOSFETs under volume inversion regime.

Computation of an integral basis of a quartic number field

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Computation of an integral basis of quartic number field

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer ajunt."

Preparació, estudi estructural i aplicabilitat de derivats de Poli-(4R)-hidroxi-L-prolina a la separació d’enantiòmers per tècniques cromatogràfiques o relacionades

La separació d’enantiòmers (isòmers òptics) és molt important en molts diversos camps, com les síntesis quirals, biologia, i en el camp de la farmacologia especialment. És per això, que es fa necessari de disposar de tècniques i mètodes analítics ràpids, fiables i sensibles per a la separació d’enantiòmers. La present tesi s’emmarca en el camp de la separació d’enantiòmers, concretament en la preparació de fases estacionàries quirals per al seu ús en cromatografia liquida. En aquest sentit, s’ha desenvolupat la síntesi i caracterització de molècules polimèriques quirals derivades de l’aminoàcid L-prolina que incorporades en matrius de gel de sílice poden constituïr columnes quirals per a la separació d’enantiòmers per cromatografia liquida. S’han estudiat les característiques enantioselectives d’aquests nous materials en la separació de molècules quirals, trobant-se ésser satisfactòriament enantioselectius. L’interès que suscita l’obtenció d’enantiòmers a gran escala fa que la recerca s’orienti a la recerca de materials amb elevada capacitat de càrrega, és a dir, que puguin donar lloc a la separació d’elevades quantitats d’enantiòmers. Amb aquesta finalitat s’han dut a terme assaigs de capacitat de càrrega, que han posat de manifest la possible aplicació d’aquests materials a la separació preparativa d’enantiòmers. També s’ha parat especial atenció a l’estudi de les característiques de la matriu de gel de sílice, assajant-se altres materials de sílice més porosos i que permeten així treballar amb fluxos més elevats tot reduint-ne el temps d’anàlisi i els costos associats a la separació preparativa d’enantiòmers. L'estudi conformacional d'aquests nous selectors també ha estat contemplat per tal d'explicar l'enantioselectivitat específica que s'observa en certs dissolvents orgànics en els qual es duu a terme la separació dels enantiòmers.

Quasiconformal maps, analytic capacity, and non linear potentials

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Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.