New developments of peace research: The impact of recent campaigns on disarmament and human security

The present text, based on previous work done by the authors on peace research (Grasa 1990 and 2010) and the disarmament campaigns linked to Human Security (Alcalde 2009 and 2010), has two objectives. First, to present a new agenda for peace research, based on the resolution/transformation of conflicts and the promotion of collective action in furtherance of human security and human development. Second, to focus specifically on collective action and on a positive reading of some of the campaigns that have taken place during the last decades in order to see how the experiences of such will affect the future agenda for peace research and action for peace.

An agenda-setting model of electoral competition

This paper presents a model of electoral competition focusing on the formation of thepublic agenda. An incumbent government and a challenger party in opposition competein elections by choosing the issues that will key out their campaigns. Giving salience toan issue implies proposing an innovative policy proposal, alternative to the status-quo.Parties trade off the issues with high salience in voters concerns and those with broadagreement on some alternative policy proposal. Each party expects a higher probabilityof victory if the issue it chooses becomes salient in the voters decision. But remarkably,the issues which are considered the most important ones by a majority of votes may notbe given salience during the electoral campaign. An incumbent government may survivein spite of its bad policy performance if there is no sufficiently broad agreement on apolicy alternative. We illustrate the analytical potential of the model with the case of theUnited States presidential election in 2004.

MAGIC TeV Gamma-Ray Observations of Markarian 421 during Multiwavelength Campaigns in 2006

Wide-range spectral coverage of blazar-type active galactic nuclei is of paramount importance for understanding the particle acceleration mechanisms assumed to take place in their jets. The Major Atmospheric Gamma Imaging Cerenkov (MAGIC) telescope participated in three multiwavelength (MWL) campaigns, observing the blazar Markarian (Mkn) 421 during the nights of April 28 and 29, 2006, and June 14, 2006. Aims. We analyzed the corresponding MAGIC very-high energy observations during 9 nights from April 22 to 30, 2006 and on June 14, 2006. We inferred light curves with sub-day resolution and night-by-night energy spectra. Methods. MAGIC detects γ-rays by observing extended air showers in the atmosphere. The obtained air-shower images were analyzed using the standard MAGIC analysis chain. Results. A strong γ-ray signal was detected from Mkn 421 on all observation nights. The flux (E > 250 GeV) varied on night-by-night basis between (0.92±0.11) × 10-10 cm-2 s-1 (0.57 Crab units) and (3.21±0.15) × 10-10 cm-2 s-1 (2.0 Crab units) in April 2006. There is a clear indication for intra-night variability with a doubling time of 36± min on the night of April 29, 2006, establishing once more rapid flux variability for this object. For all individual nights γ-ray spectra could be inferred, with power-law indices ranging from 1.66 to 2.47. We did not find statistically significant correlations between the spectral index and the flux state for individual nights. During the June 2006 campaign, a flux substantially lower than the one measured by the Whipple 10-m telescope four days later was found. Using a log-parabolic power law fit we deduced for some data sets the location of the spectral peak in the very-high energy regime. Our results confirm the indications of rising peak energy with increasing flux, as expected in leptonic acceleration models.

The Instrumental voter goes to the news-agent: demand for information, election closeness, and the media

This paper studies the impact of instrumental voting on information demand and mass media behaviour during electoral campaigns. If voters act instrumentally then information demand should increase with the closeness of an election. Mass media are modeled as profit-maximizing firms that take into account information demand, the value of customers to advertisers and the marginal cost of customers. Information supply should be larger in electoral constituencies where the contest is expected to be closer, there is a higher population density, and customers are on average more profitable for advertisers. The impact of electorate size is theoretically undetermined. These conclusions are then tested with comfortable results on data from the 1997 general election in Britain.

Diseño del subsistema RF para el receptor SAR biestático en banda-C SABRINA

Este proyecto tiene como objetivo diseñar un nuevo receptor SAR biestático para el sistema SABRINA (SAR Bistatic fixed Receiver for INterferometric Applications) caracterizando el sistema que ya existía. El nuevo dispositivo deberá cumplir con las características y requisitos del escenario teniendo en cuenta la potencia recibida y el ruido de cuantificación de la tarjeta digitalizadora. Con este fin se introducen previamente conocimientos de teoría RADAR y SAR. Además, se deberá compactar al máximo el sistema para conseguir un receptor autocontenido que facilite su traslado. Para tal fin se ha incorporado a la caja del receptor un sintetizador programable que actúa de oscilador local de las cadenas de recepción y una fuente de alimentación que provee la tensión a todos los componentes activos del dispositivo. Por otra parte el proyecto ilustra las diferentes campañas de experimentos que se han realizado durante el periodo de trabajo.

Of Coalition and Speed: Passage and Duration of Statutes in Uruguay's Parliament, 1985-2000

We report preliminary findings from analysis of a database under construction. The paper explores the legislative process in search for some of the alleged consequences of cabinet coalitions in a presidential system. Coalition effects should be less evident in the success of executive initiatives: strategic behavior hampers this intuitive measure of performance. Better measures, because less subject to strategic considerations, are the odds of passage of legislators' bills and the time proposals take to be approved. Thus measured, coalition effects are discernible. Analysis of the universe of proposals processed in the fragmented Uruguayan Parliament between 1985 and 2000 reveals that coalition, observed about half the period, swells success rates of coalition members by 60% on average (and by as much as 150% for those close to the president). Event history analysis shows that coalitions cut the wait for an executive bill by 3 months, 1/6th the average wait. The reverse effect is felt on the duration of legislators' bills.

Are Dictators Immune to Human Rights Shaming?

This paper examines whether human rights naming and shaming destabilizes the rule of authoritarian leaders. We argue that human rights shaming can destabilize autocratic leaders by signaling international disapproval to elites in the targeted country, increasing their capacity to replace the incumbent. In personalist regimes, shaming increases the risk of irregular exit because regime elite do not have a means to peacefully replace the incumbent. Shaming campaigns also decrease foreign aid and international trade in personalist regimes, denying the leader access to resources to pay his coalition – further destabilizing his rule. In non-personalist regimes where parties or the military allow elites to peacefully replace incumbents, human rights shaming increases the risk of regular turnover of power, but has little effect on the risk of irregular exit or international flows of aid and trade. These findings have implications for understanding when and where shaming campaigns are likely to reduce or deter repression.

Del Noguerola al Segre: els problemes de la qualitat ambiental de l'aigua

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Els principals objectius del treball són intentar demostrar, cinc anys més tard, si el riu Noguerola és encara fruit d'abocaments residuals en el seu pas subterrani per la ciutat de Lleida, i observar i analitzar com el riu Segre sofreix múltiples impactes ambientals provinents, especialment, de les activitats agrícoles i ramaderes. Es van fer dos campanyes de mostrejos en les confluències de 10 afluents dels marges dret i esquerre del riu Segre, i en 5 punts al llarg d'aquest. Per a cada mostra es van analitzar: conductivitat, temperatura, ph, nitrats, nitrits, amoni, fosfats, duresa i microorganismes. A més a més, es van delimitar i determinar les superfícies de les conques i es van fer balanços hidrometeorològics per determinar les aportacions naturals de l’aigua de pluja, i es van estimar els excedents de reg de totes les conques, per així calcular les masses totals de cada paràmetre, aportades per cada afluent. Les principals conclusions a què s’ha arribat són: que el riu Noguerola continua sent fruit d'abocaments residuals en el seu pas subterrani per la ciutat de Lleida. I que, tant les activitats agrícoles i ramaderes, com les captacions d'aigua dels canals de Balaguer i de Seròs per a l’obtenció d’energia hidroelèctrica, provoquen greus impactes ambientals al riu Segre.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

El naturalismo científico en la obra de John Tyndall: Fragments of science

El análisis de los ensayos de John Tyndall, Fragments of Science, permite identificar la teoría atómica, el principio de conservación de la energía y el evolucionismo darwinista como los elementos constitutivos del andamiaje teórico del naturalismo científico. Así, en su ensayo “On the Study of Physics” se resumen sus brillantes facetas como educador y divulgador científico, desarrolladas fundamentalmente en el seno de la Royal Institution. En la lectura “On Force”, Tyndall da por finalizada la controversia Joule- Mayer sobre la primacía del descubrimiento del principio de conservación de la energía, a la vez que plantea algunas de las claves de la lucha por el liderazgo en el seno de la comunidad científica. El discurso presidencial ante la British Association de 1874 en Belfast ejemplifica el coraje de Tyndall en su empeño por demarcar los territorios de la ciencia y la religión, a la luz de los nuevos desafíos científicos. En el trasfondo subyacen los procesos de secularización de la sociedad y de profesionalización de una comunidad científica heterogénea. El compromiso cívico que Tyndall demuestra en “The Belfast Address” es digno corolario de una vida y obra que permite situarlo como paradigma de lo que, en la terminología de Turner, se ha dado en denominar científico público.

A Political Agency Model of Coattail Voting

In this paper, I provide a formal justi…cation for a well-established coattail effect, when a popular candidate at one branch of government attracts votes to candidates from the same political party for other branches of government. A political agency frame- work with moral hazard is applied to analyze coattails in simultaneous presidential and congressional elections. I show that coattail voting is a natural outcome of the optimal reelection scheme adopted by a representative voter to motivate politicians' efforts in a retrospective voting environment. I assume that an office-motivated politician (executive or congressman) prefers her counterpart to be affiliated with the same political party. This correlation of incentives leads the voter to adopt a joint performance evaluation rule, which is conditioned on the politicians belonging to the same party or different parties. The two-sided coattail effects then arise. On the one hand, the executive's suc- cess/failure props up/drags down her partisan ally in congressional election, which implies presidential coattails. On the other hand, the executive's reelection itself is affected by the congressman's performance, which results in reverse coattails. JEL classi…fication: D72, D86. Keywords: Coattail voting; Presidential coattails; Reverse coattails; Simultaneous elections; Political Agency; Retrospective voting.

Ecomobilitat a Sitges: anàlisi de la situació actual i propostes de millora

La mobilitat urbana és una de les temàtiques més importants a les ciutats ja que convergeixen diversos aspectes a nivell social i ambiental. El present article es centra en el sistema de mobilitat de la ciutat de Sitges tot avaluant l’estat de la xarxa viària, el parc de vehicles, els sistemes de transport i els serveis bàsics actuals. En l’anàlisi socioambiental de les variables d’aquest àmbit, s’han detectat una sèrie de problemes com ara una distribució no equitativa dels serveis bàsics, desigualtat en la distribució de carrers vianalitzats i carrils bici i manca d’homogeneïtat en la distribució de pàrquings. Els resultats obtinguts permeten proposar una sèrie de millores en busca d’una mobilitat més sostenible. Millorar les parades de bus que no tenen sistema de marquesina per a protegir-les del fred i el sol, augmentar potencialment el carril bici desplegant-lo per carrers que no en tenen, desenvolupar campanyes per a fomentar l’ús de la bici i augmentar la presència de carrers d’exclusiu ús per a vianants.

Web-CRM en J2EE

Crear una aplicació i-CRM, el Customer Relationship Management és un sistema que permet a les empreses manejar tota la informació relativa als seus clients des d'una única plataforma de programari. L'esmentada aplicació tindrà una interfície Web, i una estructura multicapa, que pugui ser emprada des de qualsevol localització i el nombre d'usuaris no sigui una limitació. Bàsicament, consistirà en una aplicació on es puguin crear entitats comercials (clients i potencials), i mantenir la relació bàsica amb els mateixos, aquesta es restringirà als contactes comercials, incidències i campanyes de màrqueting relacional.

Conditional compositional biplots: theory and application

The biplot has proved to be a powerful descriptive and analytical tool in many areasof applications of statistics. For compositional data the necessary theoreticaladaptation has been provided, with illustrative applications, by Aitchison (1990) andAitchison and Greenacre (2002). These papers were restricted to the interpretation ofsimple compositional data sets. In many situations the problem has to be described insome form of conditional modelling. For example, in a clinical trial where interest isin how patients’ steroid metabolite compositions may change as a result of differenttreatment regimes, interest is in relating the compositions after treatment to thecompositions before treatment and the nature of the treatments applied. To study thisthrough a biplot technique requires the development of some form of conditionalcompositional biplot. This is the purpose of this paper. We choose as a motivatingapplication an analysis of the 1992 US President ial Election, where interest may be inhow the three-part composition, the percentage division among the three candidates -Bush, Clinton and Perot - of the presidential vote in each state, depends on the ethniccomposition and on the urban-rural composition of the state. The methodology ofconditional compositional biplots is first developed and a detailed interpretation of the1992 US Presidential Election provided. We use a second application involving theconditional variability of tektite mineral compositions with respect to major oxidecompositions to demonstrate some hazards of simplistic interpretation of biplots.Finally we conjecture on further possible applications of conditional compositionalbiplots