Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

Assessing positive mental health in people with chronic physical health problems: correlations with socio-demographic variables and physical health status

Background: A holistic perspective on health implies giving careful consideration to the relationship between physical and mental health. In this regard the present study sought to determine the level of Positive Mental Health (PMH) among people with chronic physical health problems, and to examine the relationship between the observed levels of PMH and both physical health status and socio-demographic variables. Methods: The study was based on the Multifactor Model of Positive Mental Health (Lluch, 1999), which comprises six factors: Personal Satisfaction (F1), Prosocial Attitude (F2), Self-control (F3), Autonomy (F4), Problem-solving and Self-actualization (F5), and Interpersonal Relationship Skills (F6). The sample comprised 259 adults with chronic physical health problems who were recruited through a primary care center in the province of Barcelona (Spain). Positive mental health was assessed by means of the Positive Mental Health Questionnaire (Lluch, 1999). Results: Levels of PMH differed, either on the global scale or on specific factors, in relation to the following variables: age: global PMH scores decreased with age (r=-0.129; p=0.038); b) gender: men scored higher on F1 (t=2.203; p=0.028) and F4 (t=3.182; p=0.002), while women scored higher on F2 (t -3.086; p=0.002) and F6 (t=-2.744; p=0.007); c) number of health conditions: the fewer the number of health problems the higher the PMH score on F5 (r=-0.146; p=0.019); d) daily medication: polymedication patients had lower PMH scores, both globally and on various factors; e) use of analgesics: occasional use of painkillers was associated with higher PMH scores on F1 (t=-2.811; p=0.006). There were no significant differences in global PMH scores according to the type of chronic health condition. The only significant difference in the analysis by factors was that patients with hypertension obtained lower PMH scores on the factor Autonomy (t=2.165; p=0.032). Conclusions: Most people with chronic physical health problems have medium or high levels of PMH. The variables that adversely affect PMH are old age, polypharmacy and frequent consumption of analgesics. The type of health problem does not influence the levels of PMH. Much more extensive studies with samples without chronic pathology are now required in order to be able to draw more robust conclusions.

Financial development, labor and market regulations and growth

This paper investigates the importance that market regulation and financial imperfections have on firm growth. We analyse institutions af- fecting labor market as Employment Protection Laws (EP) and Product Market Regulation (PM). We show that together with the beneficial effects of financial development, a firm will get less financing, and thus investless, in a weak financial market (finance effect), the strictness of product and labor market regulations also affect firm growth (labor effect). In particular, we show that the stricter the rules the more detrimental the influence on growth in sectoral value added for a large number of countries. We also show that the labor effect overcomes the positive finance effect.

Growth of positive words and lower bounds of the growth rate for Thompson's group (F)p

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Do market conditions affect gift exchange? Evidence from experimental markets with excess supply and excess demand

We study whether people's behavior in unbalanced gift exchange markets with repeated interaction are affected by whether they are on the excess supply side or the excess demand side of the market. Our analysis is based on the comparison of behavior between two types of experimental gift exchange markets, which vary only with respect to whether first or second movers are on the long side of the market. The direction of market imbalance could influence subjects' behavior, as second movers (workers) might react differently to favorable actions by first movers (firms) in the two cases. While our data show strong deviations from the standard game-theoretic prediction, we find mainly secondary treatment effects. Wage offers are not higher when there is an excess supply of firms, and workers do not respond more favorably to a given wage when there is an excess supply of labor. The state of competition does not appear to have strong effects in our data. We also present data from single-period sessions that show substantial gift exchange even without repeated interactions.

Preventive health care and payment systems to providers

Prevention has been a main issue of recent policy orientations in health care. This renews the interest on how different organizational designs and the definition of payment schemes to providers may affect the incentives to provide preventive health care. We present, both the normative and the positive analyses of the change from independent providers to integrated services. We show the evaluation of that change to depend on the particular way payment to providers is done. We focus on the externality resulting from referral decisions from primary to acute care providers. This makes our analysis complementary to most works in the literature allowing to address in a more direct way the issue of preventive health care.

Candidate stability and voting correspondences

We study the incentives of candidates to enter or to exit elections in order to strategically affect the outcome of a voting correspondence. We extend the results of Dutta, Jackson and Le Breton (2000), who only considered single-valued voting procedures by admitting that the outcomes of voting may consist of sets of candidates. We show that, if candidates form their preferences over sets according to Expected Utility Theory and Bayesian updating, every unanimous and non dictatorial voting correspondence violates candidate stability. When candidates are restricted to use even chance prior distributions, only dictatorial or bidictatorial rules are unanimous and candidate stable. We also analyze the implications of using other extension criteria to define candidate stability that open the door to positive results.

Trials, tricks and transparency: how disclosure rules affect clinical knowledge

Scandals of selective reporting of clinical trial results by pharmaceutical firms have underlined the need for more transparency in clinical trials. We provide a theoretical framework which reproduces incentives for selective reporting and yields three key implications concerning regulation. First, a compulsory clinical trial registry complemented through a voluntary clinical trial results database can implement full transparency (the existence of all trials as well as their results is known). Second, full transparency comes at a price. It has a deterrence effect on the incentives to conduct clinical trials, as it reduces the firms'gains from trials. Third, in principle, a voluntary clinical trial results database without a compulsory registry is a superior regulatory tool; but we provide some qualified support for additional compulsory registries when medical decision-makers cannot anticipate correctly the drug companies' decisions whether to conduct trials. Keywords: pharmaceutical firms, strategic information transmission, clinical trials, registries, results databases, scientific knowledge JEL classification: D72, I18, L15

Wealth constraints, skill prices or networks: what determines emigrant selection?

The productive characteristics of migrating individuals, emigrant selection, affect welfare. The empirical estimation of the degree of selection suffers from a lack of complete and nationally representative data. This paper uses a new and better dataset to address both issues: the ENET (Mexican Labor Survey), which identifies emigrants right before they leave and allows a direct comparison to non-migrants. This dataset presents a relevant dichotomy: it shows on average negative selection for Mexican emigrants to the United States for the period 2000-2004 together with positive selection in Mexican emigration out of rural Mexico to the United States in the same period. Three theories that could explain this dichotomy are tested. Whereas higher skill prices in Mexico than in the US are enough to explain negative selection in urban Mexico, its combination with network effects and wealth constraints is required to account for positive selection in rural Mexico.

Elements of algebraic geometry and the positive theory of partially commutative groups

The first main result of the paper is a criterion for a partially commutative group G to be a domain. It allows us to reduce the study of algebraic sets over G to the study of irreducible algebraic sets, and reduce the elementary theory of G (of a coordinate group over G) to the elementary theories of the direct factors of G (to the elementary theory of coordinate groups of irreducible algebraic sets). Then we establish normal forms for quantifier-free formulas over a non-abelian directly indecomposable partially commutative group H. Analogously to the case of free groups, we introduce the notion of a generalised equation and prove that the positive theory of H has quantifier elimination and that arbitrary first-order formulas lift from H to H * F, where F is a free group of finite rank. As a consequence, the positive theory of an arbitrary partially commutative group is decidable.

L' Aprenentatge basat en problemes a través de casos clínics simulats. Una proposta metodològica de disseny i avaluació docent

RESUM Les exigències actuals de la professió de d’infermeria requereixen que la docència vagi orientada a interrelacionar els diferents rols a desenvolupar enla pràctica diària, per adquirir experiència en l’aprenentatge i així augmentar la qualitat de les cures d’infermeria. Per assolir aquest objectiu és important l’aprenentatge basat enproblemes. Aquest pretén en primer lloc que els estudiants aprenguin allò que permet desenvolupar-se enla vida professional de la manera més natural possible a partir d’una idea clara i profunda de l’evidència sobre la que s’ha d’actuar. Amb aquesta finalitat es vandissenyar casos clínics amb uns objectius que requerien la integració de coneixements, actituds i valors, en diferents fases a desenvolupar en un període de temps predeterminat. També ens vam proposar una estratègia docent que permetés a l’estudiant incorporar el coneixement científic que dóna suport a la pràctica assistencial per aproximar teoria i pràctica. Es pretén que els estudiants busquin una resposta basada en la millor evidència científica disponible, per prendre una decisió respecte a les cures del pacient. Els objectius de l’estudi són: Avaluar globalment l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos Avaluar com els estudiants valoren la integració del model d’infermeria i del procés d’atenció en l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos. Valorar les sensacions percebudes per l’estudiant durant la simulació del cas. Valorar l’actitud d el’estudiant en relació a la incorporació de l’evidència científica per una millora en la pràctica clínica. Avaluar el grau de dificultat manifestat per l’estudiant en relació al procés de documentació. Avaluar la idonietat de l’argumentació i la decisió de l’estudiant a la pregunta formulada en el cas clínic. Metodologia: L’assignatura d’Infermeria Medicoquirúrgica. Adult I del Departament d’Infermeria de la Universitat de Vic, va iniciar una experiència d’aprenentatge basat en la resolució de problemes, amb estudiants de 2on curs. Les professores responsables dels seminaris van realitzar una avaluació de l’experiència a través d’una enquesta. Aquesta es responia al cap d’un mes de la simulació al laboratori, quan es contrastaven els resultats obtinguts en aquesta entre professores i estudiants després de visualitzar la gravació feta durant el mateix. En el context del seminari de simulació de casos, es va introduir una pregunta/problema, a partir de la que els estudiants, en grup, havien de documentar-se amb el suport d’una guia. Per valorar l’actitud davant aquesta pregunta/problema es va dissenyar un qustionari tipus Likert. L’avaluació del grau de dificultat s’ha registrat a través d’unes escales de puntuació. Per a l’avaluació de la decisió presa, es van valorar les síntesis resum entregades en els treballs escrits pels diferents grups. Resultats: La realització de la simulació en el laboratori va ser avaluada per un alt percentatge d’estudiants (68,8%) amb puntuacions entre 6 i 8 mentre que un 26,6% la van situar en tre 9 i 10, només un 4,7 % la van puntuar amb 5. La integració del model d’infermeria va ser valorada pel 86% amb una puntuació entre 7 i 10. La valoració global de la simulació va ser qualificada pels estudiants amb una puntuació de 8 (34,4%) seguida d’un 28,1% amb una consideració de 7. Un 7,2% van puntuar entre 9 i 10. El 93,3% van assegurar que conèixer les fonts documentals els serviria per millorar l’assistència, el 86,7% esperen obtenir arguments sòlids respecte les seves desicions si la documentació consultada és de qualitat. Un 77,8% dels estudiants consideren estar més satisfets al saber incorporar la presa de decisions basada en evidències. Respecte el grau de dificultat en el procés de documentació la dificultat més gran la presenten en com buscar en les bases de dades de referències bibliogràfiques. Conclusions: L’aprenentatge dels estudiants a través de la simulació de casos és una estratègia vàlida que l’estudiant valora positivament al mateix temps que permet desenvolupar habilitats per a la pràctica professional. L’estratègia docent dissenyada per integrar les evidències en la presa de decisions es considera positiva, no obstant, després d’analitzar els resultats, s’han de modificar alguns aspectes per a la seva millora; tutoritzar per a millorar el procés de documentació i incidir més en la crítica i reflexió, de manera que les troballes de la investigació siguin canalitzades cap a la pràctica.

Immigration and Firm Growth: Evidence from Spanish cities

This article analyses the effect of immigration flows on the growth and efficiency of manufacturing firms in Spanish cities. To date, most studies have tended to focus on the effect immigrants have on labour markets at an aggregate level. Here, however, we undertake an exhaustive analysis at the firm level and report conclusive empirical findings. Ten years ago, Spain began to register massive immigration flows, concentrated above all on its most dynamic and advanced regions. Here, therefore, rather than focusing on the impact this has had on Spain’s labour market (changes to the skill structure of the workforce, increase in labour supply, the displacement of native workers, etc.), we examine the arrival of immigrants in terms of the changes this has meant to the structure of the country’s cities and their amenities. Thus, we argue that the impact of immigration on firm performance should not only be considered in terms of the labour market, but also in terms of how a city’s amenities can affect the performance of firms. Employing a panel data methodology, we show that the increasing pressure brought to bear by immigrants has a positive effect on the evolution of labour productivity and wages and a negative effect on the job evolution of these manufacturing firms. In addition, both small and new firms are more sensitive to the pressures of such immigrant inflows, while foreign market oriented firms report higher productivity levels and a less marked impact of immigration than their counterparts. In this paper, we also present a set of instruments to correct the endogeneity bias, which confirms the effect of local immigration flows on the performance of manufacturing firms.

Why the EU does not Have an Independent Competition Agency: French Interests and Transaction Costs in Early European Integration

A major achievement of new institutionalism in economics and political science is the formalisation of the idea that certain policies are more efficient when administered by a politically independent organisation. Based on this insight, several policy actors and scholars criticise the European Community for relying too much on a multi-task, collegial, and politicised organisation, the European Commission. This raises important questions, some constitutional (who should be able to change the corresponding procedural rules?) and some political-economic (is Europe truly committed to free and competitive markets?). Though acknowledging the relevance of legal and normative arguments, this paper contributes to the debate with a positive political-scientific perspective. Based on the view that institutional equilibria raise the question of equilibrium institutions, it shows that collegiality was (a) an equilibrium institution during the Paris negotiations of 1950-51; and (b) an institutional equilibrium for the following 50 years. The conclusion points to some recent changes in the way that European competition policy is implemented, and discusses how these affect the “constitutional” principle of collegial European governance.

Towards an emotion-driven interactive music system: ridging the gaps between affect, physiology and sound generation

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Stanford University from January until June 2007. Music is well known for affecting human emotional states, yet the relationship between specific musical parameters and emotional responses is still not clear. With the advent of new human-computer interaction (HCI) technologies, it is now possible to derive emotion-related information from physiological data and use it as an input to interactive music systems. Providing such implicit musical HCI will be highly relevant for a number of applications including music therapy, diagnosis, nteractive gaming, and physiologically-based musical instruments. A key question in such physiology-based compositions is how sound synthesis parameters can be mapped to emotional states of valence and arousal. We used both verbal and heart rate responses to evaluate the affective power of five musical parameters. Our results show that a significant correlation exists between heart rate and the subjective evaluation of well-defined musical parameters. Brightness and loudness showed to be arousing parameters on subjective scale while harmonicity and even partial attenuation factor resulted in heart rate changes typically associated to valence. This demonstrates that a rational approach to designing emotion-driven music systems for our public installations and music therapy applications is possible.

Positive solutions of nonlinear problems involving the square root of the Laplacian

We consider nonlinear elliptic problems involving a nonlocal operator: the square root of the Laplacian in a bounded domain with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions. For positive solutions to problems with power nonlinearities, we establish existence and regularity results, as well as a priori estimates of Gidas-Spruck type. In addition, among other results, we prove a symmetry theorem of Gidas-Ni-Nirenberg type.