Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.

Can organizational commitment be experienced by indivuals pursuing contemporary career paths?

In a context in which organizations can no longer promise life-time employment and individuals increasingly experience inter-organizational mobility, this study tackles the question of whether organizational commitment is no longer related to new career orientations. To this end, it analyzes the relation between the underlying dimensions of protean (self direction and values driven) and boundaryless (boundaryless mindset and organizational mobility preference) career attitudes (Briscoe et al., 2006) and organizational commitment, within today's unstable and uncertain business scenario. Research results suggest that protean career attitudes contribute significantly to individuals emotional attachment to their employing organization. Furthermore, organizational mobility preference was found to be significant in predicting both affective and continuance commitment. Finally, future research suggestions and practical implications associated with the current study are provided.

Unemployment in an estimated new Keynesian model

We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). Weestimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treatingthe unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and laborsupply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) intheir criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a"correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated modelcan be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

Location models for ceding market share and shrinking services

New location models are presented here for exploring the reduction of facilities in aregion. The first of these models considers firms ceding market share to competitorsunder situations of financial exigency. The goal of this model is to cede the leastmarket share, i.e., retain as much of the customer base as possible while sheddingcostly outlets. The second model considers a firm essentially without competition thatmust shrink it services for economic reasons. This firm is assumed to close outlets sothat the degradation of service is limited. An example is offered within a competitiveenvironment to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.

The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective

This paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baselinetheoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. Wealso characterize the gains from making credible commitments to fightinflation. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that gains from commitment may emerge even in the central bank is not trying toinadvisedly push output above its natural level. We also consider theimplications of frictions such as imperfect information.

Application of theoretical models to financial innovation

The present paper is aimed at providing a general strategic overview of the existing theoretical models that have applications in the field of financial innovation. Whereas most financialdevelopments have relied upon traditional economic tools, a new stream of research is defining a novel paradigm in which mathematical models from diverse scientific disciplines are being applied to conceptualize and explain economic and financial behavior. Indeed, terms such as ‘econophysics’ or ‘quantum finance’ have recently appeared to embrace efforts in this direction. As a first contact with such research, the project will present a brief description of some of the main theoretical models that have applications in finance and economics, and will try to present, if possible, potential new applications to particular areas in financial analysis, or new applicable models. As a result, emphasiswill be put on the implications of this research for the financial sector and its future dynamics.

IaaS, infraestructura com a servei

El propósito de este documento es adentrarnos en los nuevos modelos de negocio basados en las tecnologías Cloud Computing con el objetivo de consolidar nuevos conocimientos complementarios a los estudios de ingeniería informática. Se quiere realizar un estudio de productos open-source basados en un modelo de servicio como infraestructura (IaaS), y, implementarlos desde la vertiente más práctica.

Estrategias comerciales en la gestión de proyectos

El objetivo del presente Trabajo Final de Carrera ha consistido en realizar un estudio de investigación sobre estrategias comerciales aplicables en la gestión de proyectos, con el fin de identificar y proponer estrategias de gestión para el desarrollo e implementación de estrategias comerciales que posibiliten la reducción de costes y creación de nuevos modelos comerciales que permitan maximizar el retorno de inversión en proyectos de índole tecnológica. El estudio ha tratado las diversas áreas funcionales y de conocimiento que convergen en la gestión económica y financiera de un proyecto: (1) El área de Marketing y la concepción del plan estratégico. (2) La gestión y control de costes. (3) La gestión del suministro y compras. (4) El plan comercial de ventas. (5) La estrategia y gestión de un proyecto. En definitiva el presente proyecto representa un estudio de rigor de las áreas funcionales y del conocimiento que aquí se citan, así como sus implicaciones a lo largo del ciclo de vida de un proyecto.

Virtual Library Services for a Virtual University : User-Oriented Virtual Sites in an Open Library

La llegada de las tecnologías de la información, y su uso cada vez mayor y generalizado que se está haciendo de ellas, ha permitido para que una nueva situación aparezca que, a su vez, ha originado - de hecho, que ha precipitado - una serie de cambios de gran importancia en todos los niveles, pero especialmente en los niveles sociales, económicos y culturales. Este nueva escena ha tenido una gran influencia en el entorno pedagógico. De hecho, la aparición de nuevos modelos educativos como resultado de este cambio ha estado sucediendo de una manera continuada e ininterrumpida durante la década pasada. Estos cambios recientes en los sistemas actuales de enseñanza y de aprendizaje han significado un aumento y un cambio en el tipo de demandas hechas desde las bibliotecas y los centros de documentación.

Bibliotecas y centros de documentación virtuales en la nueva era de la sociedad de la información : la Biblioteca Virtual de la UOC

L'aparició i l'ús creixent i cada vegada més generalitzat de les tecnologies de la informació ha fet possible l'aparició d'un nou escenari que ha originat i fins i tot precipitat, una sèrie de canvis de gran abast en tots els nivells, especialment a nivell social, econòmic i cultural. Aquest nou escenari ha influït en gran manera en l'entorn pedagògic; l'aparició de nous models educatius, propiciats per aquest important canvi, s'ha anat succeint de forma continuada i ininterrompuda des de fa amb prou feines una dècada. Aquests nous models educatius han fet possible que sectors de la població que no podien accedir a cert tipus d'estudis, per circumstàncies d'índole diversa, es veiessin afavorits per un nou entorn, que no solament els facilitava l'accés a tot tipus d'ensenyaments, sinó que creava espais i eines cada vegada més fàcils d'usar perquè aquesta nova possibilitat no aparegués com una barrera tecnològica que els tanqués de nou l'accés.

La Fundación Pere Tarrés, una propuesta para el Tiempo libre familiar

La sociedad cada vez separa más a los padres de los hijos; más allá de los problemas de estructuración familiar y los nuevos modelos de familias, la realidad de trabajo del día a día, las jornadas largas de trabajo, el hecho de tener que hacer dos trabajos al mismo tiempo, pero también el concepto que tenemos de los valores y la ética que somos capaces de adquirir y creer, imposibilitan a menudo la convivencia entre padres e hijos. La Fundación Pere Tarrés hace unos años que desarrolla acciones y propuestas en este sentido, que se adapten a las nuevas realidades, y ofrece sus recursos y capital humano, para hacer posible unas vacaciones familiares en estos tiempos tan complejos que nos toca vivir

Driver scheduling problem modelling

The Drivers Scheduling Problem (DSP) consists of selecting a set of duties for vehicle drivers, for example buses, trains, plane or boat drivers or pilots, for the transportation of passengers or goods. This is a complex problem because it involves several constraints related to labour and company rules and can also present different evaluation criteria and objectives. Being able to develop an adequate model for this problem that can represent the real problem as close as possible is an important research area.The main objective of this research work is to present new mathematical models to the DSP problem that represent all the complexity of the drivers scheduling problem, and also demonstrate that the solutions of these models can be easily implemented in real situations. This issue has been recognized by several authors and as important problem in Public Transportation. The most well-known and general formulation for the DSP is a Set Partition/Set Covering Model (SPP/SCP). However, to a large extend these models simplify some of the specific business aspects and issues of real problems. This makes it difficult to use these models as automatic planning systems because the schedules obtained must be modified manually to be implemented in real situations. Based on extensive passenger transportation experience in bus companies in Portugal, we propose new alternative models to formulate the DSP problem. These models are also based on Set Partitioning/Covering Models; however, they take into account the bus operator issues and the perspective opinions and environment of the user.We follow the steps of the Operations Research Methodology which consist of: Identify the Problem; Understand the System; Formulate a Mathematical Model; Verify the Model; Select the Best Alternative; Present the Results of theAnalysis and Implement and Evaluate. All the processes are done with close participation and involvement of the final users from different transportation companies. The planner s opinion and main criticisms are used to improve the proposed model in a continuous enrichment process. The final objective is to have a model that can be incorporated into an information system to be used as an automatic tool to produce driver schedules. Therefore, the criteria for evaluating the models is the capacity to generate real and useful schedules that can be implemented without many manual adjustments or modifications. We have considered the following as measures of the quality of the model: simplicity, solution quality and applicability. We tested the alternative models with a set of real data obtained from several different transportation companies and analyzed the optimal schedules obtained with respect to the applicability of the solution to the real situation. To do this, the schedules were analyzed by the planners to determine their quality and applicability. The main result of this work is the proposition of new mathematical models for the DSP that better represent the realities of the passenger transportation operators and lead to better schedules that can be implemented directly in real situations.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.