'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Mitochondrial DNA damage and animal longevity: insights from comparative studies

Chemical reactions in living cells are under strict enzyme control and conform to a tightly regulated metabolic program. However, uncontrolled and potentially deleterious endogenous reactions occur, even under physiological conditions. Aging, in this chemical context, could be viewed as an entropic process, the result of chemical side reactions that chronically and cumulatively degrade the function of biological systems. Mitochondria are a main source of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and chemical sidereactions in healthy aerobic tissues and are the only known extranuclear cellular organelles in animal cells that contain their own DNA (mtDNA). ROS can modify mtDNA directly at the sugar-phosphate backbone or at the bases, producing many different oxidatively modified purines and pyrimidines, as well as single and double strand breaks and DNA mutations. In this scenario, natural selection tends to decrease the mitochondrial ROS generation, the oxidative damage to mtDNA, and the mitochondrial mutation rate in long-lived species, in agreement with the mitochondrial oxidative stress theory of aging.

Low Dynamics, High Longevity and Persistence of Sessile Structural Species Dwelling on Mediterranean Coralligenous Outcrops

There is still limited understanding of the processes underlying benthic species dynamics in marine coastal habitats, which are of disproportionate importance in terms of productivity and biodiversity. The life-history traits of long-lived benthic species in these habitats are particularly poorly documented. In this study, we assessed decadal patterns of population dynamics for ten sponge and anthozoan species that play key structural roles in coralligenous outcrops (~25 m depth) in two areas of the NW Mediterranean Sea. This study was based on examination of a unique long-term photographic series, which allowed analysis of population dynamics over extensive spatial and time spans for the very first time. Specifically, 671 individuals were censused annually over periods of 25-, 15-, and 5-years. This long-term study quantitatively revealed a common life-history pattern among the ten studied species, despite the fact they present different growth forms. Low mortality rates (3.4% yr−1 for all species combined) and infrequent recruitment events (mean value of 3.1±0.5 SE recruits yr−1) provided only a very small fraction of the new colonies required to maintain population sizes. Overall, annual mortality and recruitment rates did not differ significantly among years; however, some species displayed important mortality events and recruitment pulses, indicating variability among species. Based on the growth rates of these 10 species, we projected their longevity and, obtained a mean estimated age of 25-200 years. Finally, the low to moderate turnover rates (mean value 0.80% yr−1) observed among the coralligenous species were in agreement with their low dynamics and persistence. These results offer solid baseline data and reveal that these habitats are among the most vulnerable to the current increases of anthropogenic disturbances.

The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Proteostasis of aging and stem cells

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la the Salk Institute, Estats Units, entre 2010 i 2012. L'estabilitat del genoma és essencial per a la supervivència de les cèl • lules mare, però, l'estabilitat del proteoma pot tenir un paper igualment important en la identitat de cèl • lules mare i la seva funció. La nostra hipòtesi és que les cèl • lules mare tenen la capacitat de proteostasis augmentada en comparació amb els seus homòlegs diferenciats i ens varem preguntar si l'activitat del proteasoma és diferent a les cèl • lules mare embrionàries humanes (hESCs). En particular, els nostres resultats mostren que les poblacions de cèl• lules mare presenten una activitat del proteasoma que es correlaciona amb majors nivells de la subunitat 19S del proteasoma PSMD11/RPN-6 i un corresponent augment del ensamblatge del 26S/30S proteasoma. L'expressió ectòpica de PSMD11 és suficient per augmentar l'activitat del proteasoma. Sorprenentment, varem trobar que la llarga vida del GLP-1 C. elegans mutant té també un augment dramàtic en l'activitat del proteasoma associat a nivells augmentats en l'expressió de RPN-6. El factor de transcripció DAF-16 és essencial per l'augment de la longevitat de GLP-1 i els cucs mutants que trobem DAF-16 necessari per a l'augment d'expressió de RPN-6 i, per tant, per l'activació de l'activitat del proteasoma en GLP-1 mutant animals. Una possibilitat interessant és que els gens que regulen la vida i la resistència a l'estrès en C. elegans poden també regular la funció hESCs de mamífer, cèl • lules que son considerades immortals. Aquests resultats ens van portar a la conclusió de que FOXO4, un factor de transcripció sensible a la insulina/IGF-1, regula l'activitat del proteasoma en hESCs, el que suggereix un paper per FOXO4 en la funció d’aquestes cèl • lules. En efecte, FOXO4 es necessari per a la diferenciació en llinatges neuronals de les hESCs. Els nostres resultats estableixen una nova regulació de laproteostasis en hESCs que uneix la longevitat i la resistència a l'estrès en invertebrats amb la funció i identitat de les hESCs.

Lifespan extension by calorie restriction relies on the Sty1 MAP kinase stress pathway

Either calorie restriction, loss of function of the nutrient-dependent PKA or TOR/SCH9 pathways, or activation of stress defences improves longevity in different eukaryotes. However, the molecular links between glucose depletion, nutrient-dependent pathways and stress responses are unknown. Here we show that either calorie restriction or inactivation of nutrient-dependent pathways induces life-span extension in fission yeast, and that such effect is dependent on the activation of the stress-dependent Sty1 MAP kinase. During transition to stationary phase in glucose-limiting conditions, Sty1 becomes activated and triggers a transcriptional stress program, whereas such activation does not occur under glucose-rich conditions. Deletion of the genes coding for the SCH9-homologue Sck2 or the Pka1 kinases, or mutations leading to constitutive activation of the Sty1 stress pathway increase life span under glucose-rich conditions, and importantly such beneficial effects depend ultimately on Sty1. Furthermore, cells lacking Pka1 display enhanced oxygen consumption and Sty1 activation under glucose-rich conditions. We conclude that calorie restriction favours oxidative metabolism, reactive oxygen species production and Sty1 MAP kinase activation, and this stress pathway favours life-span extension.

Sustainable and equitable retirement in a life course perspective

We argue that long term sustainability of social security systems requires not only better equilibrium between the proportion in retirement and in employment but also an equitable distribution of the additional financial burden that aging inevitably will require. We examine how a proportional fixed ratios model of burden sharing between the aged and non-aged will establish inter-generational equity. Additionally we address the question of intra-generational equity and argue that the positive association between lifetime income and longevity requires more progressive financing of pensions and of care for the elderly.

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "government economizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory". The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Social security in theory and practice (II): Efficiency theories, narrative theories and implications for reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "governmenteconomizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory".The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Breathers and thermal relaxation in Fermi-Pasta-Ulam arrays

Breather stability and longevity in thermally relaxing nonlinear arrays depend sensitively on their interactions with other excitations. We review numerical results for the relaxation of breathers in Fermi¿Pasta¿Ulam arrays, with a specific focus on the different relaxation channels and their dependence on the interparticle interactions, dimensionality, initial condition, and system parameters

Escenarios del impacto de la inmigración en la longevidad y dependencia de los mayores en la población española

Introduction: The composition of the Spanish population has recently changed due to immigration. The present study aimed to estimate the magnitude of change in the calculation of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability, taking the population of foreign residents into account. For this population, there is no information on mortality or the prevalence of disability. Material and methods: Data were extracted from the 1999 Survey on Disabilities, Handicaps and Health Status to estimate healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability using the Sullivan method. Data were taken from the Spanish Statistical Institute and the World Health Organization, Sullivan's method was adapted to the case of two different populations, and possible scenarios were established. Results: The differences between the mortality table estimated for the foreign resident population and that estimated for the Spanish population were considerable and were more evident in women. At 65 years of age and in the worst scenario, which occurs when all the members of the foreign resident population are disabled, life expectancy in disability would be 2 more years for men and 3 more years for women than when the foreign population was not considered. Conclusions: Our scenarios reveal that the impact of immigration on the calculation of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability is moderate.

Escenarios del impacto de la inmigración en la longevidad y dependencia de los mayores en la población española

Introduction: The composition of the Spanish population has recently changed due to immigration. The present study aimed to estimate the magnitude of change in the calculation of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability, taking the population of foreign residents into account. For this population, there is no information on mortality or the prevalence of disability. Material and methods: Data were extracted from the 1999 Survey on Disabilities, Handicaps and Health Status to estimate healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability using the Sullivan method. Data were taken from the Spanish Statistical Institute and the World Health Organization, Sullivan's method was adapted to the case of two different populations, and possible scenarios were established. Results: The differences between the mortality table estimated for the foreign resident population and that estimated for the Spanish population were considerable and were more evident in women. At 65 years of age and in the worst scenario, which occurs when all the members of the foreign resident population are disabled, life expectancy in disability would be 2 more years for men and 3 more years for women than when the foreign population was not considered. Conclusions: Our scenarios reveal that the impact of immigration on the calculation of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in disability is moderate.

Dietary resveratrol prevents alzheimer's markers and increases life span in SAMP8

Resveratrol is a polyphenol that is mainly found in grapes and red wine and has been reported to be a caloric restriction (CR) mimetic driven by Sirtuin 1 (SIRT1) activation. Resveratrol increases metabolic rate, insulin sensitivity, mitochondrial biogenesis and physical endurance, and reduces fat accumulation in mice. In addition, resveratrol may be a powerful agent to prevent age-associated neurodegeneration and to improve cognitive deficits in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Moreover, different findings support the view that longevity in mice could be promoted by CR. In this study, we examined the role of dietary resveratrol in SAMP8 mice, a model of age-related AD. We found that resveratrol supplements increased mean life expectancy and maximal life span in SAMP8 and in their control, the related strain SAMR1. In addition, we examined the resveratrol-mediated neuroprotective effects on several specific hallmarks of AD. We found that long-term dietary resveratrol activates AMPK pathways and pro-survival routes such as SIRT1 in vivo. It also reduces cognitive impairment and has a neuroprotective role, decreasing the amyloid burden and reducing tau hyperphosphorylation.