Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

A missing spatial link in institutional quality

History tells that institutions evolve gradually over time, pushing new ideas across borders and cultures. Globalisation is argued to accelerate this process. We examine the spatial links of different political institutions across borders. Applying various tests for spatial proximity, we do not find evidence of contemporaneous spatial links. This result is robust to various measures of distance and of cultural proximity across countries. Instead, when we analyse long run dynamics diffusion of institutions seems to occur only gradually.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Intraregional trade in South America, 1913-50. Economic linkages before institutional agreements

Dejando de lado NAFTA, la integración comercial en América Latina sigue siendo muy moderada hoy en día, representando alrededor del 20% del comercio total. Lo sorprendente es que estos valores eran más altos en 1945. Esto constituye un hecho paradoxal: la integración comercial alcanzó su récord antes de la firma de acuerdos de integración comercial. En el presente trabajo se estudia el comercio intrarregional a lo largo del período de entreguerras (1913-1950) a través del análisis de cinco casos: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile y Peru. El análisis de la integración comercial en este período representa una novedad en la literatura, ya que los trabajos sobre América Latina, específicos de comercio intraregional, se centran en el período a partir de la década de 1960. El documento destaca dos conclusiones principales: a) con la excepción de los períodos de las guerras mundiales, el comercio intraregional ha sido muy modesto desde 1913 hasta la actualidad, b) en general, el comercio intrarregional repitió la especialización del comercio mundial: una alta concentración en productos de bajo valor añadido.

Environment conditions and biological innovations in the european agrarian growth, 1819-1939

The circumstances that were the driving forces behind Europe's economic growth beginning in the 19th century are diverse, and not easily prioritized. Until the 1970's, specifically, in Economy and Economic History, attention was focused on different institutional and technological variables, and various regularities were proposed. Nevertheless, new studies also underlined that the evolution of economic activity could not be understood considering only the new production possibilities offered by market economies. As a result, today it is also accepted that those processes can not be explained without considering two additional circumstances: the energy flows that sustained them, and the changes undergone in their transformation In this context, a question arises that takes on special importance. Which was the influence of the biological change in the economic growth?. A part of the flows of energy must be made into food, and this transformation can only happen with the participation.

Transition modes and institutional outcomes in El Salvador and Guatemala

Institutions affect key dimensions of the political process –policy, stability, and conflict. The choice of institutions is thus consequential. I argue that transition modes affect the choice of institutions in predictable and systematic ways. The more balanced power is between the two main bargaining forces –regime elite and opposition– the likelier that the resulting institutions will be pluralistic. Contrarily, the more unbalanced power is in favour of regime elites vis a vis the opposition, the likelier that institutions will be majoritarian. The argument is tested for El Salvador and Guatemala.

Església, poder i societat als comtats catalans d'origen carolingi (877-1010)

El projecte de recerca “Església, poder i societat als comtats catalans d'origen carolingi (877-1010)” contempla l'estudi de l'Església catalana del segle X en tots els seus vessants: com a estructura formada per diferents institucions (seus episcopals, cenobis, parròquies i esglésies-oratoris); com a conjunt de persones (clergues i laics que participen de diferent manera i amb diferent implicació dels afers eclesiàstics); en relació al poder polític-administratiu dels comtats catalans (comtes, vescomtes, senyors i altres delegats del poder i la justícia); com en relació amb els aspectes socioeconòmics i d'ordenació territorial (la gran massa de camperols, l'acaparament de terres per part dels grans propietaris, l'articulació d'un sistema de rendes, els vincles entre persones de diferents rangs, la compartimentació d'un espai creixent). Observem, doncs, que l'Església catalana altmedieval resta present en tots els àmbits de la vida i que el seu estudi permet, de retruc, un coneixement més profund i rigorós de la societat. Tot això, contextualitzat durant el segle X, a cavall entre dos períodes ben estudiats i que en ocasions l'han ennuvolat. El segle X és un període privilegiat per a l'estudi d'un bon nombre de dinàmiques polítiques, socials, econòmiques i culturals que demostren que aquesta centúria tenia una personalitat pròpia i que la posen en rellevància respecte als temps anteriors i posteriors. La historiografia tradicional altmedieval catalana tendeix a buscar l'origen dels canvis socials, institucionals i polítics, de la Catalunya medieval, en dos moments concrets: el món carolingi o els anys immediatament posteriors al canvi de mil•lenni. No obstant això, l'augment de fonts històriques, el millor coneixement dels conceptes i de les institucions i l'apropament a la història mitjançant nous enfocaments i paradigmes, permet visualitzar el segle X com a moment de continuació, però també de naixement de situacions prou importants com per a no ser negligides.

Institutional Balance in the EU. The Prodi Administration as a Reforming Commission

The essay looks at the Prodi Commission (1999-2004) in the context of the institutional balance in the European Union. Not only did Prodi come into office at a time of unprecedented weakness of the Executive, but the Commission operates within a changing institutional equilibrium, one made more precarious by the shifting political disposition of the Member States

Regulatory federalism in network industries

Report for the scientific sojourn at the UC Berkeley, USA, from march until july 2008. This document starts by surveying the literature on economic federalism and relating it to network industries. The insights and some new developments (which focus on the role of interjurisdictional externalities, multiple objectives and investment incentives) are used to analyze regulatory arrangements in telecommunications and energy in the EU and the US. In the long history of vertically integrated monopolies in telecommunications and energy, there was a historical trend to move regulation up in the vertical structure of government, at least form the local level to the state or nation-state level. This move alleviated the pressure on regulators to renege on the commitment not to expropriate sunk investments, although it did not eliminate the practice of taxation by regulation that was the result of multiple interest group action. Although central or federal policy making is more focused and especialized and makes it difficult for more interest groups to organize, it is not clear that under all conditions central powers will not be associated with underinvestment. When technology makes the introduction of competition in some segments possible, the possibilities for organizing the institutional architechture of regulation expand. The central level may focus on structural regulation and the location of behavioral regulation of the remaining monopolists may be resolved in a cooperative way or concentrated at the level where the relevant spillovers are internalized.

TwHistory : Sharing History Using Twitter

In light of the fact that several studies indicate that students can benefit from deeper understandings of the processes by which historical accounts are constructed, history educators have increasingly been focused on finding ways to teach students how to read and reason about events in the same manner as professional historians (Wineburg, 2001; Spoehr & Spoehr, 1994; Hynd, Holschuh, & Hubbard, 2004; Wiley & Voss, 1996). One possible resource for supporting this development may come out of emerging web-based technologies. New technologies and increased access to historical records and artifacts posted the Internet may be precisely the tools that can help students (Bass, Rosenzweig, & Mason, 1999). Given the right context, we believe it is possible to combine such resources and tools to create an environment for students that could strengthen their abilities to read and reason about historical events. Moreover, we believe that social media, specifically, microblogging (Nardi, Schiano, Gumbrecht, & Swartz, 2004) could play a key role.

Conversation is the Key : A Short History of Smarthistory.org

Smarthistory.org is a proven, sustainable model for open educational resources in the Humanities. We discuss lessons learned during its agile development. Smarthistory.org is a free, creative-commons licensed, multi-media web-book designed as a dynamic enhancement or substitute for the traditional art history textbook. It uses conversation instead of the impersonal voice of the typical textbook in-order to reveal disagreement, emotion, and the experience of looking. The listener remains engaged with both the content and the interaction of the speakers. These conversations model close looking and a willingness to encounter and engage the unfamiliar. Smarthistory takes the inherent dialogic and multimedia nature of the web and uses it as a pedagogical method. This extendable Humanities framework uses an open-source content management system making Smarthistory inexpensive to create, and easy to manage and update. Its chronological timeline/chapter-based format integrates new contributions into a single historical framework, a structure applicable across the Humanities.

Justifying Institutional Investment in OER Development : OERs as Marketing Vehicle

The higher education sector has become increasingly competitive and prospective students are adopting a consumerist approach to institution and programme choice. In response, higher education marketing has become more complex, market-oriented and business-like. Financial sustainability of open education resource (OER) projects is a widespread concern. This paper explores the extent to which a classical product placement framework can be applied to OERs to justify institutional funding in OER projects as a marketing investment. It is argued that OERs designed on this premise can increase cognitive, affective and conative brand outcomes while providing the traditional educational and societal benefits associated with OERs. A series of propositions are presented that may form the basis of a future research agenda.

Preserving memories on-line : the exhibition 'Memories of our childhood' and the Catalan Immigration History Museum

Gràcies a la introducció d'Internet, les institucions de la memòria poden anar ara un pas endavant i proporcionar narratives i documentació en línia. La present comunicació intenta descobrir com poden ser utilitzades les memòries en línia basant-se en dues experiències: una exposició de nens de la guerra i un portal d'immigració.

I Riflessi letterari dell’Unità d’Italia nella narrativa siciliana

El treball d'investigació té per objecte oferir un inventari raonat de novel•les i contes curts d’autors sicilians d’entre 1860 i 1898, de Giovanni Verga a la Simonetta Agnello Hornby, diferents en edat, cultura i condició social. Vol fer evident la persistència de la reflexió sobre el Risorgimento "traït", i ajudar a comprendre com hi havia un marc d’unitat política i institucional en el què no es donava cabuda a les diferències entre el Nord i el Sud d’Itàlia