Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition

Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

Performance Analysis of Two Quantum Reaction Dynamics Codes: Time-Dependent and Time-Independent Strategies

The computer simulation of reaction dynamics has nowadays reached a remarkable degree of accuracy. Triatomic elementary reactions are rigorously studied with great detail on a straightforward basis using a considerable variety of Quantum Dynamics computational tools available to the scientific community. In our contribution we compare the performance of two quantum scattering codes in the computation of reaction cross sections of a triatomic benchmark reaction such as the gas phase reaction Ne + H2+ %12. NeH++ H. The computational codes are selected as representative of time-dependent (Real Wave Packet [ ]) and time-independent (ABC [ ]) methodologies. The main conclusion to be drawn from our study is that both strategies are, to a great extent, not competing but rather complementary. While time-dependent calculations advantages with respect to the energy range that can be covered in a single simulation, time-independent approaches offer much more detailed information from each single energy calculation. Further details such as the calculation of reactivity at very low collision energies or the computational effort related to account for the Coriolis couplings are analyzed in this paper.

Dose and time-dependent selective neurotoxicity induced by mephedrone in mice.

Mephedrone is a drug of abuse marketed as 'bath salts'. There are discrepancies concerning its long-term effects. We have investigated the neurotoxicity of mephedrone in mice following different exposition schedules. Schedule 1: four doses of 50 mg/kg. Schedule 2: four doses of 25 mg/kg. Schedule 3: three daily doses of 25 mg/kg, for two consecutive days. All schedules induced, in some animals, an aggressive behavior and hyperthermia as well as a decrease in weight gain. Mephedrone (schedule 1) induced dopaminergic and serotoninergic neurotoxicity that persisted 7 days after exposition. At a lower dose (schedule 2) only a transient dopaminergic injury was found. In the weekend consumption pattern (schedule 3), mephedrone induced dopamine and serotonin transporter loss that was accompanied by a decrease in tyrosine hydroxylase and tryptophan hydroxylase 2 expression one week after exposition. Also, mephedrone induced a depressive-like behavior, as well as a reduction in striatal D2 density, suggesting higher susceptibility to addictive drugs. In cultured cortical neurons, mephedrone induced a concentration-dependent cytotoxic effect. Using repeated doses for 2 days in an elevated ambient temperature we evidenced a loss of frontal cortex dopaminergic and hippocampal serotoninergic neuronal markers that suggest injuries at nerve endings.

Positive Outcomes Influence the Rate and Time to Publication, but Not the Impact Factor of Publications of Clinical Trial Results

Objectives: Publication bias may affect the validity of evidence based medical decisions. The aim of this study is to assess whether research outcomes affect the dissemination of clinical trial findings, in terms of rate, time to publication, and impact factor of journal publications. Methods and Findings: All drug-evaluating clinical trials submitted to and approved by a general hospital ethics committee between 1997 and 2004 were prospectively followed to analyze their fate and publication. Published articles were identified by searching Pubmed and other electronic databases. Clinical study final reports submitted to the ethics committee, final reports synopses available online and meeting abstracts were also considered as sources of study results. Study outcomes were classified as positive (when statistical significance favoring experimental drug was achieved), negative (when no statistical significance was achieved or it favored control drug) and descriptive (for non-controlled studies). Time to publication was defined as time from study closure to publication. A survival analysis was performed using a Cox regression model to analyze time to publication. Journal impact factors of identified publications were recorded. Publication rate was 48·4% (380/785). Study results were identified for 68·9% of all completed clinical trials (541/785). Publication rate was 84·9% (180/212) for studies with results classified as positive and 68·9% (128/186) for studies with results classified as negative (p<0·001). Median time to publication was 2·09 years (IC95 1·61-2·56) for studies with results classified as positive and 3·21 years (IC95 2·69-3·70) for studies with results classified as negative (hazard ratio 1·99 (IC95 1·55-2·55). No differences were found in publication impact factor between positive (median 6·308, interquartile range: 3·141-28·409) and negative result studies (median 8·266, interquartile range: 4·135-17·157). Conclusions: Clinical trials with positive outcomes have significantly higher rates and shorter times to publication than those with negative results. However, no differences have been found in terms of impact factor.

Dose and time-dependent selective neurotoxicity induced by mephedrone in mice.

Mephedrone is a drug of abuse marketed as 'bath salts'. There are discrepancies concerning its long-term effects. We have investigated the neurotoxicity of mephedrone in mice following different exposition schedules. Schedule 1: four doses of 50 mg/kg. Schedule 2: four doses of 25 mg/kg. Schedule 3: three daily doses of 25 mg/kg, for two consecutive days. All schedules induced, in some animals, an aggressive behavior and hyperthermia as well as a decrease in weight gain. Mephedrone (schedule 1) induced dopaminergic and serotoninergic neurotoxicity that persisted 7 days after exposition. At a lower dose (schedule 2) only a transient dopaminergic injury was found. In the weekend consumption pattern (schedule 3), mephedrone induced dopamine and serotonin transporter loss that was accompanied by a decrease in tyrosine hydroxylase and tryptophan hydroxylase 2 expression one week after exposition. Also, mephedrone induced a depressive-like behavior, as well as a reduction in striatal D2 density, suggesting higher susceptibility to addictive drugs. In cultured cortical neurons, mephedrone induced a concentration-dependent cytotoxic effect. Using repeated doses for 2 days in an elevated ambient temperature we evidenced a loss of frontal cortex dopaminergic and hippocampal serotoninergic neuronal markers that suggest injuries at nerve endings.

Performance Analysis of Two Quantum Reaction Dynamics Codes: Time-Dependent and Time-Independent Strategies

The computer simulation of reaction dynamics has nowadays reached a remarkable degree of accuracy. Triatomic elementary reactions are rigorously studied with great detail on a straightforward basis using a considerable variety of Quantum Dynamics computational tools available to the scientific community. In our contribution we compare the performance of two quantum scattering codes in the computation of reaction cross sections of a triatomic benchmark reaction such as the gas phase reaction Ne + H2+ %12. NeH++ H. The computational codes are selected as representative of time-dependent (Real Wave Packet [ ]) and time-independent (ABC [ ]) methodologies. The main conclusion to be drawn from our study is that both strategies are, to a great extent, not competing but rather complementary. While time-dependent calculations advantages with respect to the energy range that can be covered in a single simulation, time-independent approaches offer much more detailed information from each single energy calculation. Further details such as the calculation of reactivity at very low collision energies or the computational effort related to account for the Coriolis couplings are analyzed in this paper.

Characterizing major avalanche episodes in space and time in the twentieth and early twentyfirst centuries in the Catalan Pyrenees

With the aim of better understanding avalanche risk in the Catalan Pyrenees, the present work focuses on the analysis of major (or destructive) avalanches. For such purpose major avalanche cartography was made by an exhaustive photointerpretation of several flights, winter and summer field surveys and inquiries to local population. Major avalanche events were used to quantify the magnitude of the episodes during which they occurred, and a Major Avalanche Activity Magnitude Index (MAAMI) was developed. This index is based on the number of major avalanches registered and its estimated frequency in a given time period, hence it quantifies the magnitude of a major avalanche episode or winter. Furthermore, it permits a comparison of the magnitude between major avalanche episodes in a given mountain range, or between mountain ranges, and for a long enough period, it should allow analysis of temporal trends. Major episodes from winter 1995/96 to 2013/14 were reconstructed. Their magnitude, frequency and extent were also assessed. During the last 19 winters, the episodes of January 22-23 and February 6-8 in 1996 were those with highest MAAMI values,followed by January 30-31, 2003, January 29, 2006, and January 24-25, 2014. To analyze the whole twentieth century, a simplified MAAMI was defined in order to attain the same purpose with a less complete dataset. With less accuracy, the same parameters were obtained at winter time resolution throughout the twentieth century. Again, 1995/96 winter had the highest MAAMI value followed by 1971/72, 1974/75 and 1937/38 winter seasons. The analysis of the spatial extent of the different episodes allowed refining the demarcation of nivological regions, and improving our knowledge about the atmospheric patterns that cause major episodes and their climatic interpretation. In some cases, the importance of considering a major avalanche episode as the result of a previous preparatory period, followed by a triggering one was revealed.

Predictability of music descriptor time series and its application to cover song detection

Intuitively, music has both predictable and unpredictable components. In this work we assess this qualitative statement in a quantitative way using common time series models fitted to state-of-the-art music descriptors. These descriptors cover different musical facets and are extracted from a large collection of real audio recordings comprising a variety of musical genres. Our findings show that music descriptor time series exhibit a certain predictability not only for short time intervals, but also for mid-term and relatively long intervals. This fact is observed independently of the descriptor, musical facet and time series model we consider. Moreover, we show that our findings are not only of theoretical relevance but can also have practical impact. To this end we demonstrate that music predictability at relatively long time intervals can be exploited in a real-world application, namely the automatic identification of cover songs (i.e. different renditions or versions of the same musical piece). Importantly, this prediction strategy yields a parameter-free approach for cover song identification that is substantially faster, allows for reduced computational storage and still maintains highly competitive accuracies when compared to state-of-the-art systems.

Parental care time in four European countries: comparing types and contexts

The intensity of parental investments in child care time is expected to vary across families with different norms and time-constraints. Additionally, it should also differ across countries, since the abilities of parents to harmonize family and work vary by national context. In our opinion, however, this question remains inconclusive for two main reasons: 1) only some countries have been studied from a comparative approach; 2) previous studies have not paid enough attention to the analysis of how the conditional effects of education and employment affect parental investments.In this paper we used nationally representative time-use data from Denmark, Flanders, Spain and the United Kingdom (N=4,031) to explore how employment and education predict variations in child care time. IN Britain and Spain employment has a strong negative effect on fathers’ child care, but a weaker one in Flanders and particularly in Denmark. In contrast, maternal employment has a strong negative impact in all four countries. Education increases child care time significantly only among Spanish mothers and fathers, as well as British mothers. Nonetheless, we find that college-educated mothers under similar time-constraints increase substantially their expected child care time in Britain, Flanders and Spain; for fathers we find a more mixed picture. Routine child care activities are more sensitive to both maternal and paternal employment than interactive child care activities. Finally, we observe that working a public sector job generally increases a total time allocated to parental care, controlling for several demographic and socioeconomic variables.

Issue of time in generally covariant theories and the Komar-Bergmann approach to observables in general relativity

Diffeomorphism-induced symmetry transformations and time evolution are distinct operations in generally covariant theories formulated in phase space. Time is not frozen. Diffeomorphism invariants are consequently not necessarily constants of the motion. Time-dependent invariants arise through the choice of an intrinsic time, or equivalently through the imposition of time-dependent gauge fixation conditions. One example of such a time-dependent gauge fixing is the Komar-Bergmann use of Weyl curvature scalars in general relativity. An analogous gauge fixing is also imposed for the relativistic free particle and the resulting complete set time-dependent invariants for this exactly solvable model are displayed. In contrast with the free particle case, we show that gauge invariants that are simultaneously constants of motion cannot exist in general relativity. They vary with intrinsic time.

Time course of error detection and correction in humans: neurophysiological evidence.

Using event-related brain potentials, the time course of error detection and correction was studied in healthy human subjects. A feedforward model of error correction was used to predict the timing properties of the error and corrective movements. Analysis of the multichannel recordings focused on (1) the error-related negativity (ERN) seen immediately after errors in response- and stimulus-locked averages and (2) on the lateralized readiness potential (LRP) reflecting motor preparation. Comparison of the onset and time course of the ERN and LRP components showed that the signs of corrective activity preceded the ERN. Thus, error correction was implemented before or at least in parallel with the appearance of the ERN component. Also, the amplitude of the ERN component was increased for errors, followed by fast corrective movements. The results are compatible with recent views considering the ERN component as the output of an evaluative system engaged in monitoring motor conflict.

Effects of Temperature, Salinity and Fish in Structuring the Macroinvertebrate Community in Shallow Lakes: Implications for Effects of Climate Change

Climate warming may lead to changes in the trophic structure and diversity of shallow lakes as a combined effect of increased temperature and salinity and likely increased strength of trophic interactions. We investigated the potential effects of temperature, salinity and fish on the plant-associated macroinvertebrate community by introducing artificial plants in eight comparable shallow brackish lakes located in two climatic regions of contrasting temperature: cold-temperate and Mediterranean. In both regions, lakes covered a salinity gradient from freshwater to oligohaline waters. We undertook day and night-time sampling of macroinvertebrates associated with the artificial plants and fish and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators within artificial plants and in pelagic areas. Our results showed marked differences in the trophic structure between cold and warm shallow lakes. Plant-associated macroinvertebrates and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators were more abundant and the communities richer in species in the cold compared to the warm climate, most probably as a result of differences in fish predation pressure. Submerged plants in warm brackish lakes did not seem to counteract the effect of fish predation on macroinvertebrates to the same extent as in temperate freshwater lakes, since small fish were abundant and tended to aggregate within the macrophytes. The richness and abundance of most plant-associated macroinvertebrate taxa decreased with salinity. Despite the lower densities of plant-associated macroinvertebrates in the Mediterranean lakes, periphyton biomass was lower than in cold temperate systems, a fact that was mainly attributed to grazing and disturbance by fish. Our results suggest that, if the current process of warming entails higher chances of shallow lakes becoming warmer and more saline, climatic change may result in a decrease in macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance in shallow lakes

Study of the influence of grain size and precipitates on the electromagnetic losses in different grades of non-oriented fully processed electrical steel

The study was performed in the installations of OCAS, a Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal. Taking M32 steel (3.25%Si+0.9%Al) as the basis chemical composition and three different thicknesses (0.35, 0.5 and 0.65mm), different annealing conditions (temperature and time) have been applied in the laboratory simulator at St. Chély, France. The aim was to link annealing parameters, grain size and energy loss. It was determined the optimum annealing parameters to reach the lowest power losses for three different grades of non-oriented fully processed electrical steel. In addition, M250-50 samples having different magnetic behaviour (high and low losses) but the same grain size and texture, have been analyzed in terms of TEM observations of their precipitates, in the University of Marseille. The results reveal that a high amount of medium and big precipitates (&10 nm) worsen the magnetic properties of the material. The small precipitates (&10nm) do not have a strong influence on the magnetic properties. The presence of precipitates can have a great influence on the power losses and further work is clearly necessary.

Health and income: a robust comparison of Canada and the US

This paper uses sequential stochastic dominance procedures to compare the joint distribution of health and income across space and time. It is the First application of which we are aware of methods to compare multidimensional distributions of income and health using procedures that are robust to aggregation techniques. The paper's approach is more general than comparisons of health gradients and does not require the estimation of health equivalent incomes. We illustrate the approach by contrasting Canada and the US using comparable data. Canada dominates the US over the lower bidimensional welfare distribution of health and income, though not generally in terms of the uni-dimensional distribution of health or income. The paper also finds that welfare for both Canadians and Americans has not unambiguously improved during the last decade over the joint distribution of income and health, in spite of the fact that the uni-dimensional distributions of income have clearly improved during that period.