Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Contagion or Interdependence in the recent Global Financial Crisis? An application to the stock markets using unconditional cross-market correlations

We consider stock market contagion as a significant increase in cross-market linkages after a shock to one country or group of countries. Under this definition we study if contagion occurred from the U.S. Financial Crisis to the rest of the major stock markets in the world by using the adjusted (unconditional) correlation coefficient approach (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002) which consists of testing if average crossmarket correlations increase significantly during the relevant period of turmoil. We would not reject the null hypothesis of interdependence in favour of contagion if the increase in correlation only suggests a continuation of high linkages in all state of the world. Moreover, if contagion occurs, this would justify the intervention of the IMF and the suddenly portfolio restructuring during the period under study.

Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

A century of global equity market correlations

In this paper, we use a unique long-run dataset of regulatory constraints on capital account openness to explain stock market correlations. Since stock returns themselves are highly volatile, any examination of what drives correlations needs to focus on long runs of data. This is particularly true since some of the short-term changes in co-movements appear to reverse themselves (Delroy Hunter 2005). We argue that changes in the co-movement of indices have not been random. Rather, they are mainly driven by greater freedom to move funds from one country to another. In related work, Geert Bekaert and Campbell Harvey (2000) show that equity correlations increase after liberalization of capital markets, using a number of case studies from emerging countries. We examine this pattern systematically for the last century, and find it to be most pronounced in the recent past. We compare the importance of capital account openness with one main alternative explanation, the growing synchronization of economic fundamentals. We conclude that greater openness has been the single most important cause of growing correlations during the last quarter of a century, though increasingly correlated economic fundamentals also matter. In the conclusion, we offer some thoughts on why the effects of greater openness appear to be so much stronger today than they were during the last era of globalization before 1914.

Government consumption and private consumption correlations

This paper examines whether the introduction of government consumptionexpenditure in a standard one good model of the international real businesscycle is sufficient to reconcile the theory with the existing pattern ofinternational consumption and output correlations. I calibrate the model totwo different pairs of countries and generate the simulated distribution ofconsumption and output correlations implied by several specifications of themodel. It is shown that the model can account for existing internationalconsumption correlations only under very specific assumptions about the sizeof effect of government expenditure on agents' utility or the variabilityof government expenditure shocks. Crucial parameters are identified and thesensitivity of the results discussed.

The role of energy correlations on Coulomb suppression in ballistic conductors contacted to degenerate reservoirs

Coulomb suppression of shot noise in a ballistic diode connected to degenerate ideal contacts is analyzed in terms of the correlations taking place between current fluctuations due to carriers injected with different energies. By using Monte Carlo simulations we show that at low frequencies the origin of Coulomb suppression can be traced back to the negative correlations existing between electrons injected with an energy close to that of the potential barrier present in the diode active region and all other carriers injected with higher energies. Correlations between electrons with energy above the potential barrier with the rest of electrons are found to influence significantly the spectra at high frequency in the cutoff region.

Effective eigenvalue for the intensity correlations of single-mode and two-mode lasers

Exact formulas for the effective eigenvalue characterizing the initial decay of intensity correlation functions are given in terms of stationary moments of the intensity. Spontaneous emission noise and nonwhite pump noise are considered. Our results are discussed in connection with earlier calculations, simulations, and experimental results for single-mode dye lasers, two-mode inhomogeneously broadened lasers, and two-mode dye ring lasers. The effective eigenvalue is seen to depend sensitively on noise characteristics and symmetry properties of the system. In particular, the effective eigenvalue associated with cross correlations of two-mode lasers is seen to vanish in the absence of pump noise as a consequence of detailed balance. In the presence of pump noise, the vanishing of this eigenvalue requires equal pump parameters for the two modes and statistical independence of spontaneous emission noise acting on each mode.

Correlations derived from modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

Various modern nucleon-nucleon (NN) potentials yield a very accurate fit to the nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts. The differences between these interactions in describing properties of nuclear matter are investigated. Various contributions to the total energy are evaluated employing the Hellmann-Feynman theorem. Special attention is paid to the two-nucleon correlation functions derived from these interactions. Differences in the predictions of the various interactions can be traced back to the inclusion of nonlocal terms.

Sum rules and short-range correlations in nuclear matter at finite temperature

The nucleon spectral function in nuclear matter fulfills an energy weighted sum rule. Comparing two different realistic potentials, these sum rules are studied for Greens functions that are derived self-consistently within the T matrix approximation at finite temperature.

Correlations in hot asymmetric nuclear matter

Bulk and single-particle properties of hot hyperonic matter are studied within the Brueckner-Hartree-Fock approximation extended to finite temperature. The bare interaction in the nucleon sector is the Argonne V18 potential supplemented with an effective three-body force to reproduce the saturating properties of nuclear matter. The modern Nijmegen NSC97e potential is employed for the hyperon-nucleon and hyperon-hyperon interactions. The effect of temperature on the in-medium effective interaction is found to be, in general, very small and the single-particle potentials differ by at most 25% for temperatures in the range from 0 to 60 MeV. The bulk properties of infinite matter of baryons, either nuclear isospin symmetric or a Beta-stable composition that includes a nonzero fraction of hyperons, are obtained. It is found that the presence of hyperons can modify the thermodynamical properties of the system in a non-negligible way.

Sum rules and correlations in asymmetric nuclear matter

The neutron and proton single-particle spectral functions in asymmetric nuclear matter fulfill energy-weighted sum rules. The validity of these sum rules within the self-consistent Green's function approach is investigated. The various contributions to these sum rules and their convergence as a function of energy provide information about correlations induced by the realistic interaction between the nucleons. The study of the sum rules in asymmetric nuclear matter exhibits the isospin dependence of the nucleon-nucleon correlations.

Density matrix functional theory that includes pairing correlations

The extension of density functional theory (DFT) to include pairing correlations without formal violation of the particle-number conservation condition is described. This version of the theory can be considered as a foundation of the application of existing DFT plus pairing approaches to atoms, molecules, ultracooled and magnetically trapped atomic Fermi gases, and atomic nuclei where the number of particles is conserved exactly. The connection with Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) theory is discussed, and the method of quasilocal reduction of the nonlocal theory is also described. This quasilocal reduction allows equations of motion to be obtained which are much simpler for numerical solution than the equations corresponding to the nonlocal case. Our theory is applied to the study of some even Sn isotopes, and the results are compared with those obtained in the standard HFB theory and with the experimental ones.

Distribution of single-particle strength due to short-range and tensor correlations

The distribution of single-particle strength in nuclear matter is calculated for a realistic nucleon-nucleon interaction. The influence of the short-range repulsion and the tensor component of the nuclear force on the spectral functions is to move approximately 13% of the total strength for all single-particle states beyond 100 MeV into the particle domain. This result is related to the abundantly observed quenching phenomena in nuclei which include the reduction of spectroscopic factors observed in (e,ep) reactions and the missing strength in low energy response functions.