Anàlisi de les imminents reformes processals i la seva aplicació a Catalunya. Problemàtica pròpia i riscos detectats. Propostes de millora. Cap a un nou model de justícia

Per diferents motius, l'acció de la justícia es troba permanentment d'actualitat. Una de les causes és la contínua novetat que prové de les propostes de modernització en els diversos àmbits, que tracten de pal·liar els dèficits amb els quals s'enfronta cada dia l'acció judicial. El debat és ja antic i permanent, sent que, simultàniament un ventall de projectes ha aparegut amb la intenció de dur a terme un canvi profund i determinant en la visió de l'estructura del Poder Judicial i dels serveis associats. En particular, la proposta de reforma de Llei Orgànica del Poder Judicial i de Demarcació i Planta, suposa la concentració de tots els jutjats a les capitals de província, amb el risc d'allunyament enfront dels ciutadans i problemes associats. L'esborrany de Codi Processal Penal aposta per un nou sistema de recerca a càrrec del Ministeri Fiscal, amb curts terminis taxats per a la finalització del procediment, promoció de la mediació i augment de les possibilitats de no continuació de la causa, a més una concentració i simplificació de totes les fases del procediment penal. D'altra banda, el Registre Civil ha estat retirat dels jutjats però, malgrat el transcurs del temps, no s'és capaç d'identificar a quin col·lectiu li correspondrà aquesta funció, amb la conseqüent generació d'una important inquietud social. Aquestes i altres novetats seran analitzades en profunditat, amb especial perspectiva des de l'àmbit de Catalunya, tractant d'aportar solucions i propostes de millora.

Assessment of current anglo-saxon proposals about criminal justice and the justification of legal punishment: Moore, Duff and Finnis on retribution, and the challenging compatibility with the up-and-coming Restorative Justice

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Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

A mixed splicing procedure for economic time series

This note develops a flexible methodology for splicing economic time series that avoids the extreme assumptions implicit in the procedures most commonly used in the literature. It allows the user to split the required correction to the older of the series being linked between its levels and growth rates on the basis what he knows or conjectures about the persistence of the factors that account for the discrepancy between the two series that emerges at their linking point. The time profile of the correction is derived from the assumption that the error in the older series reflects the inadequate coverage of emerging sectors or activities that grow faster than the aggregate.

Objetivos y carencias de la política criminal contra la pequeña delincuencia

Trabajo realizado en el marco del Proyecto de investigación, estudio y análisis sobre la seguridad en Cataluña (ISPC 2009), gracias a la ayuda concedida por el Departament d’Interior en virtud de Resolución del director del Instituto de Seguridad Pública de Cataluña de 22 de diciembre de 2009 (DOGC núm. 5693 - 16/08/2010)

El comportamiento penalmente relevante en el delito de defraudación tributaria: una propuesta político-criminal

El sistema tributario es fundamental en el Estado social y democrático de Derecho, pues el ejercicio y efectivo disfrute de muchos derechos fundamentales depende del correcto funcionamiento de la actividad tributaria. Además de esto, la situación económica actual demanda una adecuada política en contra del fraude tributario, lo que necesariamente implica analizar si el modelo penal vigente es el más adecuado para enfrentar el fraude fiscal. Teniendo en cuenta que muchas de las características de la criminalidad tributaria no son exclusivas de un país, pues ésta trasciende habitualmente las fronteras de los países por medio del recurso a empresas multinacionales o la localización de empresas en “paraísos fiscales”, el análisis del fraude tributario no debe limitarse al examen jurídico del modelo legislativo español, debiendo trascender a un estudio de política criminal que vincula consideraciones criminológicas y jurídicas. En consecuencia, en esta investigación se propone un análisis que no se reduce a los debates exclusivamente jurídicos. Se busca, además, efectuar un examen que tenga por fundamento una perspectiva criminológica y de Law in action a fin de evaluar críticamente la respuesta a la criminalidad tributaria por parte del modelo de regulación penal vigente en España. Esta orientación permitirá una más amplia comprensión del fenómeno de la criminalidad tributaria, así como de las categorías jurídicas adecuadas político criminalmente para su prevención. Este estudio interdisciplinario nos conducirá, al final de la investigación, tanto a proponer la interpretación del modelo de legislación penal vigente, como una reforma al mismo que pretenda solucionar algunos de los problemas de prevención que a lo largo de la investigación se señalan.

A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium

We propose a simple adaptive procedure for playing a game. In thisprocedure, players depart from their current play with probabilities thatare proportional to measures of regret for not having used other strategies(these measures are updated every period). It is shown that our adaptiveprocedure guaranties that with probability one, the sample distributionsof play converge to the set of correlated equilibria of the game. Tocompute these regret measures, a player needs to know his payoff functionand the history of play. We also offer a variation where every playerknows only his own realized payoff history (but not his payoff function).

Corporate criminal law and organization incentives: A managerial perspective

Corporate criminal liability puts a serious challenge to the economictheory of enforcement. Are corporate crimes different from other crimes?Are these crimes best deterred by punishing individuals, punishing corporations, or both? What is optimal structure of sanctions? Shouldcorporate liability be criminal or civil? This paper has two majorcontributions to the literature. First, it provides a common analyticalframework to most results presented and largely discussed in the field.In second place, by making use of the framework, we provide new insightsinto how corporations should be punished for the offenses committed bytheir employees.

Optimal law enforcement and criminal organization

In this paper, we take an organizational view of organized crime. In particular, we study the organizational consequences of product illegality attending at the following characteristics: (i) contracts are not enforceable in court, (ii) all participants are subject to the risk of being punished, (iii) employees present a major threat to the entrepreneur having the most detailed knowledge concerning participation, (iv) separation between ownership and management is difficult because record-keeping and auditing augments criminal evidence.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

The referent : a new referential methodology and procedure in live drawing

My research in live drawing and new technologies uses a combination of a human figure in live in composition, overlaid with a digital projection of a second human figure. The aim is to explore, to amplify and thoroughly analyse the search for distinctive identities and graphic languages of representation for live and projected models.

Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present

Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the $^{\Delta_4}$ filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present. We exploit the Vector of Quarters representation and cointegration relationship between the quarters when factors $(1-L),(1+L),\bigg(1+L^2\bigg),\bigg(1-L^2\bigg) y \bigg(1+L+L^2+L^3\bigg)$ are a source of nonstationarity in a process in order to obtain the distribution of tests of the HEGY procedure when the underlying processes have a root at the zero, Nyquist frequency, two complex conjugates of frequency $^{\pi/2}$ and two combinations of the previous cases. We show both theoretically and through a Monte-Carlo analysis that the t-ratios $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_1}}$ and $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_2}}$ and the F-type tests used in the HEGY procedure have the same distribution as under the null of a seasonal random walk when the root(s) is/are present, although this is not the case for the t-ratio tests associated with unit roots at frequency $^{\pi/2}$.

Using the HEGY Procedure When Not All Roots Are Present

Empirical studies have shown little evidence to support the presence of all unit roots present in the $^{\Delta_4}$ filter in quarterly seasonal time series. This paper analyses the performance of the Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) (HEGY) procedure when the roots under the null are not all present. We exploit the Vector of Quarters representation and cointegration relationship between the quarters when factors $(1-L),(1+L),\bigg(1+L^2\bigg),\bigg(1-L^2\bigg) y \bigg(1+L+L^2+L^3\bigg)$ are a source of nonstationarity in a process in order to obtain the distribution of tests of the HEGY procedure when the underlying processes have a root at the zero, Nyquist frequency, two complex conjugates of frequency $^{\pi/2}$ and two combinations of the previous cases. We show both theoretically and through a Monte-Carlo analysis that the t-ratios $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_1}}$ and $^{t_{{\hat\pi}_2}}$ and the F-type tests used in the HEGY procedure have the same distribution as under the null of a seasonal random walk when the root(s) is/are present, although this is not the case for the t-ratio tests associated with unit roots at frequency $^{\pi/2}$.

Procedure to characterize microroughness of optical thin films: application to ion-beam-sputtered vacuum-ultraviolet coatings

A method for characterizing the microroughness of samples in optical coating technology is developed. Measurements over different spatial-frequency ranges are composed into a single power spectral density (PSD) covering a large bandwidth. This is followed by the extraction of characteristic parameters through fitting of the PSD to a suitable combination of theoretical models. The method allows us to combine microroughness measurements performed with different techniques, and the fitting procedure can be adapted to any behavior of a combined PSD. The method has been applied to a set of ion-beam-sputtered fluoride vacuum-UV coatings with increasing number of alternative low- and high-index layers. Conclusions about roughness development and microstructural growth are drawn.