The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

Impact of wind power generation on the electricity supply industry

The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the effect wind energy has on the Electricity Supply Industry in Ireland. Wind power generation is a source of renewable energy that is in abundant supply in Ireland and is fast becoming a resource that Ireland is depending on as a diverse and secure of supply of energy. However, wind is an intermittent resource and coupled with a variable demand, there are integration issues with balancing demand and supply effectively. To maintain a secure supply of electricity to customers, it is necessary that wind power has an operational reserve to ensure appropriate backup for situations where there is low wind but high demand. This dissertation examines the affect of this integration by comparing wind generation to that of conventional generation in the national grid. This is done to ascertain the cost benefits of wind power generation against a scenario with no wind generation. Then, the analysis examines to see if wind power can meet the pillars of sustainability. This entails looking at wind in a practical scenario to observe how it meets these pillars under the criteria of environmental responsibility, displacement of conventional fuel, cost competitiveness and security of supply.

Investigation into the feasibility of a West of Ireland Pumped Storage System

Ireland’s remote position on the tip of Europe ensures that the country is vulnerable to uncertainty of supply. The reliance on conventional sources of electricity has ensured that escalated prices and high carbon emissions have been witnessed whilst opportunities that inherent resources provide, such as the wind, have not been capitalised upon. The intermittent nature of the wind make it difficult to maximise its potential as in many cases the highest wind speeds are highest when demand is low. The West of Ireland’s combination of wind speeds and unique topography makes it suitable for and innovative wind powered pumped storage system, which can essentially regulate the wind generated electricity and integrate further penetration of renewable energy. In addition, its location along the Atlantic Ocean provides further scope for innovation as seawater can be integrated into the system design. The construction of such an unprecedented project in combination with increased interconnectors has the potential to make Ireland a rechargeable battery for Europe. However, such ambitious plans are at the very early stages and are in direct contrast to current events in the Irish energy market. This study focuses on the feasibility of West of Ireland pumped storage systems. Entailed within this is an extensive desk study, a detailed site selection process and a feasibility study of grid connection. To increase opportunities to identify the best possible site, the feasibility study was focused on the Galway and Mayo areas solely.