The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

The concept of risk management in the renewable sector.

This study explores the perception of risk and the level of risk management implementation in the renewable sector. Risk management is emerging as a key issue due to the loss of confidence amongst banks, causing the attainment of financing to be difficult over the next few years. To attract financing, there is a fundamental requirement to manage risk in a way that minimizes the probability of a negative financial impact on the project. Miller and Lessard (2001) argue that successful projects are not selected but shaped with risk resolution in mind. Rather than evaluating projects at the outset based on projections of the full set of benefits, costs and risks over their lifetime, successful developers start with project ideas that have the potential of becoming viable. Therefore, this study bridges the gap that exists within the renewable sector in relation to risk management literature. This study succeeds through a detailed comparative case study analysis where two developers and two financiers were questioned through qualitative semi-structured interviews on the concept of risk management and its level implementation within the industry. It is believed that the growth in financed renewable energy projects depends on the adequate design and implementation of risk management to mitigate inherent project risks. However, this study revealed that are certain types of developers in existence within the renewable sector, which underestimate the magnitude of risk and view the development of projects as a ‘money racket’. Therefore, it can be concluded that perception of risk will also differ, causing risk and uncertainty to vary from project to project, resulting in investment reluctance to be associated with certain projects. The study originality lies in how it demonstrates to developers the concept of risk management, outlining the simplicity and benefits of implementing it in project development. Finally, this study contributes to the knowledge by enhancing the awareness and understanding of the presence and nature of risk in a RE project environment.

The role of biomass and biorefineries in a sustainable future

Some o f the biggest issues facing humanity in the 21st century include energy security, global warming and resource scarcity. These issues will affect every nation and Ireland is no exception. There is much research underway to uncover technologies that will allow the world to overcome such problems, but none offer the flexibility o f biomass. Unlike other sustainable technologies, which offer a solution to one or at most two o f the above problems, biomass as demonstrated by the author, can play a part in mitigating all o f the above problems. It has been known for some time that biomass can be used in various ways as a form o f renewable energy, but with the development o f biorefineries biomass can be used to produce material as well as fuel products. In this report the author has looked at the viability and benefits o f biomass, bioenergy and biorefining in Ireland. The author has demonstrated that such technologies when implemented correctly are sustainable from an economic, environmental and societal point o f view. The author has shown in this thesis that abundant supplies o f biomass make bio re fineries a viable business opportunity in Ireland and has shown how a number o f biorefinery scenarios have the potential to be extremely profitable. The author has evaluated the profitability o f material product-based bio re fineries as well as fuel productbased configurations. The author demonstrated that value-added co-products help to make bio refineries profitable even when excise-relief is not granted on bio fuels. In this thesis the author has revealed some o f the problems that bioenergy and biorefineries have had to overcome to date and examines challenges that remain for bioenergy and biorefining, and looks at the future opportunities for bio fuels. This report concludes that biomass and biorefining has exciting business potential while offering unique opportunities to mitigate the problems o f the future.

Overcoming the supply inconsistencies of tidal current energy conversion devices

The adoption of a sustainable approach to meeting the energy needs of society has recently taken on a more central and urgent place in the minds of many people. There are many reasons for this including ecological, environmental and economic concerns. One particular area where a sustainable approach has become very relevant is in the production of electricity. The contribution of renewable sources to the energy mix supplying the electricity grid is nothing new, but the focus has begun to move away from the more conventional renewable sources such as wind and hydro. The necessity of exploring new and innovative sources of renewable energy is now seen as imperative as the older forms (i.e. hydro) reach the saturation point of their possible exploitation. One such innovative source of energy currently beginning to be utilised in this regard is tidal energy. The purpose of this thesis is to isolate one specific drawback to tidal energy, which could be considered a roadblock to this energy source being a major contributor to the Irish national grid. This drawback presents itself in the inconsistent nature in which a tidal device generates energy over the course of a 24 hour period. This inconsistency of supply can result in the cycling of conventional power plants in order to even out the supply, subsequently leading to additional costs. The thesis includes a review of literature relevant to the area of tidal and other marine energy sources with an emphasis on the state of the art devices currently in development or production. The research carried out included tidal data analysis and manipulation into a model of the power generating potential at specific sites. A solution is then proposed to the drawback of inconsistency of supply, which involves the positioning of various tidal generation installations at specifically selected locations around the Irish coast. The temporal shift achieved in the power supply profiles of the individual sites by locating the installations in the correct locations, successfully produced an overall power supply profile with the smoother curve and a consistent base load energy supply. Some limitations to the method employed were also outlined, and suggestions for further improvements to the method were made.

Impact of wind power generation on the electricity supply industry

The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the effect wind energy has on the Electricity Supply Industry in Ireland. Wind power generation is a source of renewable energy that is in abundant supply in Ireland and is fast becoming a resource that Ireland is depending on as a diverse and secure of supply of energy. However, wind is an intermittent resource and coupled with a variable demand, there are integration issues with balancing demand and supply effectively. To maintain a secure supply of electricity to customers, it is necessary that wind power has an operational reserve to ensure appropriate backup for situations where there is low wind but high demand. This dissertation examines the affect of this integration by comparing wind generation to that of conventional generation in the national grid. This is done to ascertain the cost benefits of wind power generation against a scenario with no wind generation. Then, the analysis examines to see if wind power can meet the pillars of sustainability. This entails looking at wind in a practical scenario to observe how it meets these pillars under the criteria of environmental responsibility, displacement of conventional fuel, cost competitiveness and security of supply.

Investigation into the feasibility of a West of Ireland Pumped Storage System

Ireland’s remote position on the tip of Europe ensures that the country is vulnerable to uncertainty of supply. The reliance on conventional sources of electricity has ensured that escalated prices and high carbon emissions have been witnessed whilst opportunities that inherent resources provide, such as the wind, have not been capitalised upon. The intermittent nature of the wind make it difficult to maximise its potential as in many cases the highest wind speeds are highest when demand is low. The West of Ireland’s combination of wind speeds and unique topography makes it suitable for and innovative wind powered pumped storage system, which can essentially regulate the wind generated electricity and integrate further penetration of renewable energy. In addition, its location along the Atlantic Ocean provides further scope for innovation as seawater can be integrated into the system design. The construction of such an unprecedented project in combination with increased interconnectors has the potential to make Ireland a rechargeable battery for Europe. However, such ambitious plans are at the very early stages and are in direct contrast to current events in the Irish energy market. This study focuses on the feasibility of West of Ireland pumped storage systems. Entailed within this is an extensive desk study, a detailed site selection process and a feasibility study of grid connection. To increase opportunities to identify the best possible site, the feasibility study was focused on the Galway and Mayo areas solely.