The spatial analysis and speciation of uranium and thorium series radionuclides in the soil of the Cronamuck Valley, County Donegal, Ireland

This thesis details the findings of a study into the spatial distribution and speciation of 238U, 226Ra and 228Ra in the soils of the Cronamuck valley, County Donegal . The region lies on the north-eastern edge of the Barnesmore granite and has been the subject of uranium prospecting efforts in the past. The results of the project provide information on the practicability of geostatistical techniques as a means of estimating the spatial distribution of natural radionuclides and provide insight into the behaviour of these nuclides and their modes of occurrence and enrichment in an upland bog environment. The results of the geostatistical survey conducted on the area indicate that the primary control over the levels of the studied nuclides in the soil of the valley is the underlying geology. Isopleth maps of nuclide levels in the valley indicate a predominance of elevated nuclide levels in the samples drawn from the granite region, statistical analysis of the data indicating that levels of the nuclides in samples drawn from the granite are greater than levels drawn from the non-granite region by up to a factor of 4.6 for 238U and 4.9 for 226Ra. Redistribution of the nuclides occurs via drainage systems within the valley, this process being responsible for transport of nuclides away from the granite region resulting in enrichment of nuclides in soils not underlain by the granite. Distribution of the nuclides within the valley is erratic, the effect of drainage f lows on the nuclides resulting in localized enriched areas within the valley. Speciation of the nuclides within one of the enriched areas encountered in the study indicates that enrichment is as a result of saturation of the soil with drainage water containing trace amounts of radionuclides. 238U is primarily held within the labile fractions (exchangeable cat ions + easily oxidisable organics + amorphous iron oxides ) of the soil , 226Ra being associated with the non- labile fractions, most probably the resistant organic material. 228Ra displays a significant occurrence in both the labile and non- labile fractions. The ability of the soil to retain uranium appears to be affected largely by the redox status of the soil, samples drawn from oxidizing environments tending to have little or no uranium in the easily oxidisable and amorphous iron oxide fractions. This loss of uranium from oxidised soil samples is responsible for the elevated 226Ra /238U disequilibrium encountered in the enriched areas of the valley. Analysis of the data indicates that samples displaying elevated 226Ra/238U ratios also exhibit elevated 228Ra/238U ratios indicating a loss of uranium from the samples as opposed to an enrichment of 226Ra.

The importance and accuracy of wind power forecasts

Due to the global crisis o f climate change many countries throughout the world are installing the renewable energy o f wind power into their electricity system. Wind energy causes complications when it is being integrated into the electricity system due its intermittent nature. Additionally winds intennittency can result in penalties being enforced due to the deregulation in the electricity market. Wind power forecasting can play a pivotal role to ease the integration o f wind energy. Wind power forecasts at 24 and 48 hours ahead of time are deemed the most crucial for determining an appropriate balance on the power system. In the electricity market wind power forecasts can also assist market participants in terms o f applying a suitable bidding strategy, unit commitment or have an impact on the value o f the spot price. For these reasons this study investigates the importance o f wind power forecasts for such players as the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Investigation in this study is also conducted into the impacts that wind power forecasts can have on the electricity market in relation to bidding strategies, spot price and unit commitment by examining various case studies. The results o f these case studies portray a clear and insightful indication o f the significance o f availing from the information available from wind power forecasts. The accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast is also explored. Data from a wind power forecast is examined in the circumstances o f both 24 and 48 hour forecasts. The accuracy o f the wind power forecasts are displayed through a variety o f statistical approaches. The results o f the investigation can assist market participants taking part in the electricity pool and also provides a platform that can be applied to any forecast when attempting to define its accuracy. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge in the area o f wind power forecasts by explaining the importance o f wind power forecasting within the energy sector. It innovativeness and uniqueness lies in determining the accuracy o f a particular wind power forecast that was previously unknown.

The concept of risk management in the renewable sector.

This study explores the perception of risk and the level of risk management implementation in the renewable sector. Risk management is emerging as a key issue due to the loss of confidence amongst banks, causing the attainment of financing to be difficult over the next few years. To attract financing, there is a fundamental requirement to manage risk in a way that minimizes the probability of a negative financial impact on the project. Miller and Lessard (2001) argue that successful projects are not selected but shaped with risk resolution in mind. Rather than evaluating projects at the outset based on projections of the full set of benefits, costs and risks over their lifetime, successful developers start with project ideas that have the potential of becoming viable. Therefore, this study bridges the gap that exists within the renewable sector in relation to risk management literature. This study succeeds through a detailed comparative case study analysis where two developers and two financiers were questioned through qualitative semi-structured interviews on the concept of risk management and its level implementation within the industry. It is believed that the growth in financed renewable energy projects depends on the adequate design and implementation of risk management to mitigate inherent project risks. However, this study revealed that are certain types of developers in existence within the renewable sector, which underestimate the magnitude of risk and view the development of projects as a ‘money racket’. Therefore, it can be concluded that perception of risk will also differ, causing risk and uncertainty to vary from project to project, resulting in investment reluctance to be associated with certain projects. The study originality lies in how it demonstrates to developers the concept of risk management, outlining the simplicity and benefits of implementing it in project development. Finally, this study contributes to the knowledge by enhancing the awareness and understanding of the presence and nature of risk in a RE project environment.