3 resultados para probability of informed trading
Resumo:
Background: Approximately 5% of the population donates blood each year in developed countries. Recruiting and maintaining a pool of altruistic and healthy blood donors is a challenging task. Blood donation as a dynamic process must naturally co-exist with the arguably essential deferrals. Aims: To analyse a 11-year cohort of donors and blood donations in order to determine the profile of the average donor and the typical donation. Characterize the donor’s population in terms of gender, age, number of donations, most common causes for deferral and exclusion and the possible relationships between them. Establish the tendency flow of donations per year. Methods: Analysis of 95861 blood donations from 31550 donors collected between 2000 and 2010 (11 years) in the Immunohemotherapy Department of the ‘‘Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Central - Hospital de Sa˜o Jose´’’ (Lisboa, Portugal). Prior to blood donation, donors were required to fill out a form of informed consent, a questionnaire of 21 ‘‘yes or no’’ questions and were submitted to a clinical assessment and physical examination including: measurement of weight, blood pressure, pulse and capillary hemoglobin levels. Post-donation, the collected blood was tested for ALT elevation and blood-borne viral agents (HBV, HCV, HIV 1 and 2 and HTLV 1 and 2) and other infections (Treponema pallidum). Blood donors and donations were registered in a database and statistically studied in terms of: gender and age distribution, number of donations, most common causes for deferral and exclusion. The frequency of blood donations throughout the period of observation was analyzed and statistically significant relationships between the collected variables were investigated. Results: From the population of 31550 donors 61% were male and a mean age of 41.5 years (± 12.5 years) was found. From the total of 95682 blood donations collected 78% were successful while the most common causes for deferral were: donation incompatible hemoglobin levels (5% of the blood donations and 22% of deferrals), ALT elevation (3% and 14%), positive blood screening test for Treponema pallidum (1% and 6%), medication (1% and 4%), positive serological blood markers for HBV (1% and 4%), endoscopy in the previous 12 months (1% and 3%), arterial hypertension (1% and 3%), infectious conditions (1% and 3%), influenza or influenza-like symptoms (1% and 2%) and positive serological blood markers for HCV (1% and 2%). Summary/Conclusions: Several factors may have contributed to a limited number of new regular donors in the population, namely: ageing population, the alienation of the individual from the community induced by modern lifestyles and job precariousness. It is of the utmost importance to refine our blood donation campaigns according to the existing population of donors. The optimization of the blood donation potential of a population of donors must be achieved through the development of reliable and consistent screening methods. In order to appeal to new donors it is important to promote blood donations considering the profile of the regular and healthy blood donor of the existing population.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive, incurable tumors characterized by extensive diffuse invasion of the normal brain parenchyma. Novel therapies at best prolong survival; their costs are formidable and benefit is marginal. Economic restrictions thus require knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of treatments. Here, we show the cost-effectiveness of enhanced resections in malignant glioma surgery using a well-characterized tool for intraoperative tumor visualization, 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided neurosurgery compared with white-light surgery in adult patients with newly diagnosed high-grade glioma, adopting the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. METHODS: We used a Markov model (cohort simulation). Transition probabilities were estimated with the use of data from 1 randomized clinical trial and 1 noninterventional prospective study. Utility values and resource use were obtained from published literature and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from official Portuguese reimbursement lists (2012 values). The health outcomes considered were quality-adjusted life-years, lifeyears, and progression-free life-years. Extensive 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are below €10 000 in all evaluated outcomes, being around €9100 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, €6700 per life-year gained, and €8800 per progression-free life-year gained. The probability of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery cost-effectiveness at a threshold of €20000 is 96.0% for quality-adjusted life-year, 99.6% for life-year, and 98.8% for progression-free life-year. CONCLUSION: 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery appears to be cost-effective in newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas compared with white-light surgery. This example demonstrates cost-effectiveness analyses for malignant glioma surgery to be feasible on the basis of existing data.
Resumo:
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES:Recently, three novel non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants received approval for reimbursement in Portugal for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). It is therefore important to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of these new oral anticoagulants in Portuguese AF patients. METHODS: A Markov model was used to analyze disease progression over a lifetime horizon. Relative efficacy data for stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), bleeding (intracranial, other major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding), myocardial infarction and treatment discontinuation were obtained by pairwise indirect comparisons between apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban using warfarin as a common comparator. Data on resource use were obtained from the database of diagnosis-related groups and an expert panel. Model outputs included life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), direct healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS:Apixaban provided the most life years gained and QALYs. The ICERs of apixaban compared to warfarin and dabigatran were €5529/QALY and €9163/QALY, respectively. Apixaban was dominant over rivaroxaban (greater health gains and lower costs). The results were robust over a wide range of inputs in sensitivity analyses. Apixaban had a 70% probability of being cost-effective (at a threshold of €20 000/QALY) compared to all the other therapeutic options. CONCLUSIONS:Apixaban is a cost-effective alternative to warfarin and dabigatran and is dominant over rivaroxaban in AF patients from the perspective of the Portuguese national healthcare system. These conclusions are based on indirect comparisons, but despite this limitation, the information is useful for healthcare decision-makers.