Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Effect of C282Y Genotype on Self-Reported Musculoskeletal Complications in Hereditary Hemochromatosis

OBJECTIVE: Arthropathy that mimics osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis (OP) is considered a complication of hereditary hemochromatosis (HH). We have limited data comparing OA and OP prevalence among HH patients with different hemochromatosis type 1 (HFE) genotypes. We investigated the prevalence of OA and OP in patients with HH by C282Y homozygosity and compound heterozygosity (C282Y/H63D) genotype. METHODS: A total of 306 patients with HH completed a questionnaire. Clinical and demographic characteristics and presence of OA, OP and related complications were compared by genotype, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking and menopausal status. RESULTS: In total, 266 of the 306 patients (87%) were homozygous for C282Y, and 40 (13%) were compound heterozygous. The 2 groups did not differ by median age [60 (interquartile range [IQR] 53 to 68) vs. 61 (55 to 67) years, P=0.8], sex (female: 48.8% vs. 37.5%, P=0.18) or current smoking habits (12.4% vs. 10%, P=0.3). As compared with compound heterozygous patients, C282Y homozygous patients had higher median serum ferritin concentration at diagnosis [1090 (IQR 610 to 2210) vs. 603 (362 to 950) µg/L, P<0.001], higher median transferrin saturation [80% (IQR 66 to 91%) vs. 63% (55 to 72%), P<0.001]) and lower median BMI [24.8 (22.1 to 26.9) vs. 26.2 (23.5 to 30.3) kg/m2, P<0.003]. The overall prevalence of self-reported OA was significantly higher with C282Y homozygosity than compound heterozygosity (53.4% vs. 32.5%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.4 [95% confidence interval 1.2-5.0]), as was self-reported OP (25.6% vs. 7.5%; aOR 3.5 [1.1-12.1]). CONCLUSION: Patients with C282Y homozygosity may be at increased risk of musculoskeletal complications of HH.