6 resultados para leave one out cross validation


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INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess the spectrum and prevalence of mutations in the GJB2 gene in Portuguese nonsyndromic sensorineural hearing loss (NSSHL) patients. DESIGN: Sequencing of the coding region, basal promoter, exon 1, and donor splice site of the GJB2 gene; screening for the presence of the two common GJB6 deletions. STUDY SAMPLE: A cohort of 264 Portuguese NSSHL patients. RESULTS: At least one out of 21 different GJB2 variants was identified in 80 (30.2%) of the 264 patients analysed. Two mutant alleles were found in 53 (20%) of these probands, of which 83% (44/53) harboured at least one c.35delG allele. Twenty-seven (10.2%) of the probands harboured only one mutant allele. Subsequent analysis revealed that the GJB6 deletion del(GJB6-D13S1854) was present in at least 7.4% (2/27) of the patients carrying only one mutant GJB2 allele. Overall, one in five (55/264) of the patients were diagnosed as having DFNB1-related NSSHL, of which the vast majority (53/55) harboured only GJB2 mutations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides clear demonstration that mutations in the GJB2 gene are an important cause of NSSHL in Portugal, thus representing a valuable indicator as regards therapeutical and rehabilitation options, as well as genetic counseling of these patients and their families.

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Background: Barnacles are a type of seafood with worldwide distribution and abundant along the shores of temperate seas. They are particularly appreciated and regularly consumed in Portugal as well as in Spain, France and South America, but barnacle allergy is a rare condition of which there is only one reference in the indexed literature. The molecular allergens and possible cross-reactivity phenomena implicated (namely with mites) have not been established. Objective: To demonstrate the IgE-mediated allergy to barnacle and to identify the proteins implicated as well as possible cross-reactivity phenomena with mites. Methods: We report the clinical and laboratory data of five patients with documented IgE-mediated allergy to barnacle. The diagnosis was based on a suggestive clinical history combined with positive skin prick tests (SPT) to barnacle – prick to prick method. Two barnacle extracts were prepared (raw and cooked barnacle) and sodium dodecylsulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and IgE-immunoblotting were performed. An immunoblotting inhibition assay with Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus was also done in order to evaluate cross-reactivity. Results: All patients had mite-related asthma and the allergic rhinoconjunctivitis; they all experienced mucocutaneous symptoms. All of them had positive SPT to barnacle, and the immunoblotting showed several allergenic fractions with a wide molecular weight range (19 – 94 kDa). The D. pteronyssinus extract inhibited several IgE-binding protein fractions in the barnacle extract. Conclusions: We describe five patients with IgE-mediated barnacle allergy. We also describe a group of IgEbinding+ proteins between 30 and 75 kDa as the allergenic fractions of this type of Crustacea. Cross-reactivity with D. pteronyssinus was demonstrated in two cases.

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Background: Allergic rhinitis and asthma (ARA) are chronic inflammatory diseases of the airways that often coexist in children. The only tool to assess the ARA control, the Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test (CARAT) is to be used by adults. We aimed to develop the Pediatric version of Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test (CARATkids) and to test its comprehensibility in children with 4 to 12 years of age. Methods: The questionnaire development included a literature review of pediatric questionnaires on asthma and/or rhinitis control and two consensus meetings of a multidisciplinary group. Cognitive testing was carried out in a cross-sectional qualitative study using cognitive interviews. Results: Four questionnaires to assess asthma and none to assess rhinitis control in children were identified. The multidisciplinary group produced a questionnaire version for children with 17 questions with illustrations and dichotomous (yes/no) response format. The version for caregivers had 4-points and dichotomous scales. Twenty-nine children, 4 to 12 years old, and their caregivers were interviewed. Only children over 6 years old could adequately answer the questionnaire. A few words/expressions were not fully understood by children of 6 to 8 years old. The drawings illustrating the questions were considered helpful by children and caregivers. Caregivers considered the questionnaire complete and clear and preferred dichotomous over the 4-points scales. The proportion of agreement between children and their caregivers was 61%. The words/expressions that were difficult to understand were amended. Conclusion: CARATkids, the first questionnaire to assess a child’s asthma and rhinitis control was developed and its content validity was assured. Cognitive testing showed that CARATKids is well-understood by children 6 to 12 years old. The questionnaire’s measurement properties can now be assessed in a validation study.

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Objectivos As recomendações para a realização de linfadenectomia axilar nos doentes com cancro da mama em estádio precoce e sujeitas a biópsia de gânglio sentinela com presença de macrometástase foram recentemente actualizadas, baseadas nos últimos estudos publicados (Z0011 e IBCSG 23-01). Mantém-se, no entanto, alguma controvérsia na decisão de não realização de cirurgia radical axilar nos doentes com gânglio sentinela positivo. Têm sido desenvolvidos métodos preditivos de metastização ganglionar adicional. Um dos mais conhecidos, desenvolvido no Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC), recorre a variáveis do tumor e características do gânglio sentinela. Mais recentemente com a utilização de métodos moleculares (como o One Step Nucleic Acid - OSNA) para estudo do gânglio sentinela tem sido avaliada a capacidade preditiva da quantidade total de cópias mRNA da citoqueratina 19. Pretende-se estudar na nossa amostra a capacidade preditiva do nomograma do MSKCC e da carga tumoral total. Propõe-se ainda avaliar o número de macrometástases encontradas na biópsia de gânglio sentinela e sua relação na metastização ganglionar adicional. Material e métodos Avaliação retrospectiva de 819 doentes com cancro da mama (Tis – T2) submetidos a biópsia de gânglio sentinela no Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central durante o período de 1 de Janeiro de 2005 e 31 de Dezembro de 2013. Foram identificados 123 doentes com gânglio sentinela positivo que realizaram linfadenectomia axilar imediata. A análise do gânglio sentinela foi executada por métodos histológicos em 78 doentes e por método molecular (OSNA) em 45 doentes. Os dois grupos foram estudados separadamente, tendo sido no primeiro aplicado o nomograma do MSKCC e no segundo obtida a carga tumoral total. Utilizou-se o modelo de regressão logística para analisar o poder preditivo e discriminativo destes dois métodos. Adicionalmente, para avaliar a potencial importância do número de macrometástases na metastização ganglionar adicional, foi ajustado um novo modelo de regressão logística considerando esta variável e a carga tumoral total. Ambos os métodos foram também avaliados através da área sob a curva ROC (AUC) e do teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow, respectivamente. O nível de significância adoptado foi α = 0.05. O estudo estatístico foi realizado com recurso ao SPSS. Resultados No grupo em que foi aplicado o nomograma do MSKCC obteve-se uma AUC=0.67 (I.C. 95% = 0.55 – 0.79), e no grupo em que foi avaliada a carga tumoral total uma AUC=0.78 (I.C. 95% = 0.64 – 0.91). Os poderes preditivos de ambos foram, respectivamente, p=0.15 e p=0.46. Constatou-se que o desempenho do modelo resultante da junção da carga tumoral total com o número de macrometástases encontradas no estudo do gânglio sentinela foi bastante satisfatório (AUC=0.87, I.C 95% = 0.76 – 0.98, poder preditivo p=0.33). Conclusão Foi validado externamente o modelo do MSKCC para a amostra em estudo, apresentando uma menor acuidade discriminativa em relação ao estudo original (AUC=0.67 versus AUC=0.75). Por outro lado, após verificação da homogeneidade de ambos os grupos no que diz respeito a todas as variáveis de interesse, conclui-se que a carga tumoral total aparenta uma maior acuidade preditiva e discriminativa na metastização ganglionar adicional que o nomograma do MSKCC. Quando desenvolvido um modelo agregando a carga tumoral total avaliada por OSNA e o número de macrometástases no gânglio sentinela, obteve-se uma capacidade discriminativa ainda superior. A carga tumoral total avaliada por OSNA, ou esta incluída num modelo conjunto com o número de macrometástases obtidas no estudo do gânglio sentinela, poderão representar importantes ferramentas preditivas. Serão no entanto necessários estudos adicionais com amostras superiores para consolidar estes resultados. Bibliografia 1. Giuliano AE, McCall L, Beitsch P, Whitworth PW, Blumencranz P, Leitch AM, et al. Locoregional recurrence after sentinel lymph node dissection with or without axillary dissection in patients with sentinel lymph node metastases: the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z0011 randomized trial. Ann Surg. Setembro de 2010;252(3):426–32; discussion 432–3. 2. Galimberti V, Cole BF, Zurrida S, Viale G, Luini A, Veronesi P, et al. Axillary dissection versus no axillary dissection in patients with sentinel-node micrometastases (IBCSG 23-01): a phase 3 randomised controlled trial. Lancet Oncol. Abril de 2013;14(4):297–305. 3. Bevilacqua JLB, Kattan MW, Fey JV, Cody HS, Borgen PI, Van Zee KJ. Doctor, what are my chances of having a positive sentinel node? A validated nomogram for risk estimation. J Clin Oncol. 20 de Agosto de 2007;25(24):3670–9. 4. Piñero A, Canteras M, Moreno A, Vicente F, Giménez J, Tocino A, et al. Multicenter validation of two nomograms to predict non-sentinel node involvement in breast cancer. Clin Transl Oncol. Fevereiro de 2013;15(2):117–23. 5. Banerjee SM, Michalopoulos NV, Williams NR, Davidson T, El Sheikh S, McDermott N, et al. Detailed evaluation of one step nucleic acid (OSNA) molecular assay for intra-operative diagnosis of sentinel lymph node metastasis and prediction of non-sentinel nodal involvement: experience from a London teaching hospital. Breast. Agosto de 2014;23(4):378–84. 6. Peg V, Espinosa-Bravo M, Vieites B, Vilardell F, Antúnez JR, de Salas MS, et al. Intraoperative molecular analysis of total tumor load in sentinel lymph node: a new predictor of axillary status in early breast cancer patients. Breast Cancer Res Treat. Maio de 2013;139(1):87–93. 7. Tiernan JP, Verghese ET, Nair A, Pathak S, Kim B, White J, et al. Systematic review and meta-analysis of cytokeratin 19-based one-step nucleic acid amplification versus histopathology for sentinel lymph node assessment in breast cancer. Br J Surg. Março de 2014;101(4):298–306. 8. Heilmann T, Mathiak M, Hofmann J, Mundhenke C, van Mackelenbergh M, Alkatout I, et al. Intra-operative use of one-step nucleic acid amplification (OSNA) for detection of the tumor load of sentinel lymph nodes in breast cancer patients. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. Outubro de 2013;139(10):1649–55. 9. Chaudhry A, Williams S, Cook J, Jenkins M, Sohail M, Calder C, et al. The real-time intra-operative evaluation of sentinel lymph nodes in breast cancer patients using One Step Nucleic Acid Amplification (OSNA) and implications for clinical decision-making. Eur J Surg Oncol. Fevereiro de 2014;40(2):150–7.

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Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir are currently the only effective antiviral drugs available worldwide for the management of influenza. The potential development of resistance is continually threatening their use, rationalizing and highlighting the need for a close and sustained evaluation of virus susceptibility. This study aimed to analyze and characterize the phenotypic and genotypic NAIs susceptibility profiles of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in Portugal from 2009 to 2010/2011. A total of 144 cases of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection from community and hospitalized patients were studied, including three suspected cases of clinical resistance to oseltamivir. Oseltamivir resistance was confirmed for two of the suspected cases. Neuraminidase (NA) H275Y resistant marker was found in viruses from both cases but for one it was only present in 26.2% of virus population, raising questions about the minimal percentage of resistant virus that should be considered relevant. Cross-decreased susceptibility to oseltamivir and zanamivir (2-4 IC50 fold-change) was detected on viruses from two potentially linked community patients from 2009. Both viruses harbored the NA I223V mutation. NA Y155H mutation was found in 18 statistical non-outlier viruses from 2009, having no impact on virus susceptibility. The mutations at NA N369K and V241I may have contributed to the significantly higher baseline IC50 value obtained to oseltamivir for 2010/2011 viruses, compared to viruses from the pandemic period. These results may contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between phenotype and genotype, which is currently challenging, and to the global assessment of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus susceptibility profile and baseline level to NAIs.