Coarctação Isolada da Aorta: Experiência em 100 Doentes Consecutivos

INTRODUCTION: Coarctation of the aorta (CoA) is a stenosis usually located in the descending aorta. Treatment consists of surgical or percutaneous removal of the obstruction and presents excellent immediate results but significant residual problems often persist. OBJECTIVES: To describe the presentation, treatment and long-term evolution of a population of 100 unselected consecutive patients with isolated CoA in a single pediatric cardiology center. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of all patients with isolated CoA treated during4 the last 21 years (1987-2008). RESULTS: The patients (n=100, 68.3% male) were diagnosed at a median age of 94 days (1 day to 16 years). The clinical presentation differed between patients aged less or more than one year, the former presenting with heart failure and the latter being asymptomatic with evidence of hypertension (88 and 63%, respectively; p < 0.01). Treatment, a median of 8 days after diagnosis, was surgical in 79 cases (20 end-to-end anastomosis, 31 subclavian flap, 28 patch) and percutaneous in the remaining 21 (15 balloon angioplasty, 6 with stenting). The mean age of surgical patients was younger than in those treated percutaneously (3.4 vs. 7.5 years; p < 0.01). Immediate mortality was 2% and occurred in the surgical group. There was no late mortality, in a mean follow-up of 7.2 +/- 5.4 years. Recoarctation occurred in 8 patients (6 surgical, 2 percutaneous). There are 46 patients who currently have hypertension (19 at rest, 27 with effort), their median age at diagnosis being older than the others (23 vs. 995 days; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Isolated CoA has an excellent short-term prognosis but a significant incidence of long-term complications, and should thus no longer be seen as a simple obstruction in the descending aorta, but rather as a complex pathology that requires careful follow-up after treatment. Its potentially insidious presentation requires a high level of clinical suspicion, femoral pulse palpation during physical examination of newborns and older children being particularly important. Delay in treatment has an impact on late morbidity and mortality. Taking into account the data currently available on late and immediate results, the final choice of therapeutic technique depends on the patient's age, associated lesions and the experience of the medical-surgical team. Hypertension should be closely monitored in the follow-up of these patients, as well as its risk factors and complications.

Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.