11 resultados para cross validation


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INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

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Background: Barnacles are a type of seafood with worldwide distribution and abundant along the shores of temperate seas. They are particularly appreciated and regularly consumed in Portugal as well as in Spain, France and South America, but barnacle allergy is a rare condition of which there is only one reference in the indexed literature. The molecular allergens and possible cross-reactivity phenomena implicated (namely with mites) have not been established. Objective: To demonstrate the IgE-mediated allergy to barnacle and to identify the proteins implicated as well as possible cross-reactivity phenomena with mites. Methods: We report the clinical and laboratory data of five patients with documented IgE-mediated allergy to barnacle. The diagnosis was based on a suggestive clinical history combined with positive skin prick tests (SPT) to barnacle – prick to prick method. Two barnacle extracts were prepared (raw and cooked barnacle) and sodium dodecylsulphate polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and IgE-immunoblotting were performed. An immunoblotting inhibition assay with Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus was also done in order to evaluate cross-reactivity. Results: All patients had mite-related asthma and the allergic rhinoconjunctivitis; they all experienced mucocutaneous symptoms. All of them had positive SPT to barnacle, and the immunoblotting showed several allergenic fractions with a wide molecular weight range (19 – 94 kDa). The D. pteronyssinus extract inhibited several IgE-binding protein fractions in the barnacle extract. Conclusions: We describe five patients with IgE-mediated barnacle allergy. We also describe a group of IgEbinding+ proteins between 30 and 75 kDa as the allergenic fractions of this type of Crustacea. Cross-reactivity with D. pteronyssinus was demonstrated in two cases.

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Background: Upper arm anthropometry has been used in the nutritional assessment of small infants, but it has not yet been validated as a predictor of regional body composition in this population. Objective: Validation of measured and derived upper arm anthropometry as a predictor of arm fat and fat-free compartments in preterm infants. Methods: Upper arm anthropometry, including the upper arm cross-sectional areas, was compared individually or in combination with other anthropometric measurements, with the cross-sectional arm areas measured by magnetic resonance imaging, in a cohort of consecutive preterm appropriate-for-gestationalage neonates, just before discharge. Results: Thirty infants born with (mean 8 SD) a gestational age of 30.7 8 1.9 weeks and birth weight of 1,380 8 325 g, were assessed at 35.4 8 1.1 weeks of corrected gestational age, weighing 1,785 8 93 g. None of the anthropometric measurements are reliable predictors (r 2 ! 0.56) of the measurements obtained by magnetic resonance imaging, individually or in combination with other anthropometric measurements. Conclusion: Both measured anthropometry and derived upper arm anthropometry are inaccurate predictors of regional body composition in preterm appropriate-for-gestational-age infants.

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Background: Allergic rhinitis and asthma (ARA) are chronic inflammatory diseases of the airways that often coexist in children. The only tool to assess the ARA control, the Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test (CARAT) is to be used by adults. We aimed to develop the Pediatric version of Control of Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Test (CARATkids) and to test its comprehensibility in children with 4 to 12 years of age. Methods: The questionnaire development included a literature review of pediatric questionnaires on asthma and/or rhinitis control and two consensus meetings of a multidisciplinary group. Cognitive testing was carried out in a cross-sectional qualitative study using cognitive interviews. Results: Four questionnaires to assess asthma and none to assess rhinitis control in children were identified. The multidisciplinary group produced a questionnaire version for children with 17 questions with illustrations and dichotomous (yes/no) response format. The version for caregivers had 4-points and dichotomous scales. Twenty-nine children, 4 to 12 years old, and their caregivers were interviewed. Only children over 6 years old could adequately answer the questionnaire. A few words/expressions were not fully understood by children of 6 to 8 years old. The drawings illustrating the questions were considered helpful by children and caregivers. Caregivers considered the questionnaire complete and clear and preferred dichotomous over the 4-points scales. The proportion of agreement between children and their caregivers was 61%. The words/expressions that were difficult to understand were amended. Conclusion: CARATkids, the first questionnaire to assess a child’s asthma and rhinitis control was developed and its content validity was assured. Cognitive testing showed that CARATKids is well-understood by children 6 to 12 years old. The questionnaire’s measurement properties can now be assessed in a validation study.

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INTRODUCTION: The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) enables/provides quantitative, invasive, and real-time assessment of coronary microcirculation status. AIMS: The primary aim of this study was to validate the assessment of IMR in a large animal model, and the secondary aim was to compare two doses of intracoronary papaverine, 5 and 10 mg, for induction of maximal hyperemia and its evolution over time. METHODS: Measurements of IMR were performed in eight pigs. Mean distal pressure (Pd) and mean transit time (Tmn) were measured at rest and at maximal hyperemia induced with intracoronary papaverine, 5 and 10 mg, and after 2, 5, 8 and 10 minutes. Disruption of the microcirculation was achieved by selective injection of 40-μm microspheres via a microcatheter in the left anterior descending artery. RESULTS: In each animal 14 IMR measurements were made. There were no differences between the two doses of papaverine regarding Pd response and IMR values - 11 ± 4.5 U with 5 mg and 10.6 ± 3 U with 10 mg (p=0.612). The evolution of IMR over time was also similar with the two doses, with significant differences from resting values disappearing after five minutes of intracoronary papaverine administration. IMR increased with disrupted microcirculation in all animals (41 ± 16 U, p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: IMR provides invasive and real-time assessment of coronary microcirculation. Disruption of the microvascular bed is associated with a significant increase in IMR. A 5-mg dose of intracoronary papaverine is as effective as a 10-mg dose in inducing maximal hyperemia. After five minutes of papaverine administration there is no significant difference from resting hemodynamic status.

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INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Recurrent syncope has a significant impact on quality of life. The development of measurement scales to assess this impact that are easy to use in clinical settings is crucial. The objective of the present study is a preliminary validation of the Impact of Syncope on Quality of Life questionnaire for the Portuguese population. METHODS: The instrument underwent a process of translation, validation, analysis of cultural appropriateness and cognitive debriefing. A population of 39 patients with a history of recurrent syncope (>1 year) who underwent tilt testing, aged 52.1 ± 16.4 years (21-83), 43.5% male, most in active employment (n=18) or retired (n=13), constituted a convenience sample. The resulting Portuguese version is similar to the original, with 12 items in a single aggregate score, and underwent statistical validation, with assessment of reliability, validity and stability over time. RESULTS: With regard to reliability, the internal consistency of the scale is 0.9. Assessment of convergent and discriminant validity showed statistically significant results (p<0.01). Regarding stability over time, a test-retest of this instrument at six months after tilt testing with 22 patients of the sample who had not undergone any clinical intervention found no statistically significant changes in quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that this instrument is of value for assessing quality of life in patients with recurrent syncope in Portugal.

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Modelling of ventilation is strongly dependent on the physical characteristics of the building of which precise evaluation is a complex and time consuming task. In the frame of a research project, two children day care centres (CDCC) have been selected in order to measure the envelope air permeability, the flow rate of mechanical ventilation systems and indoor and outdoor temperature. The data obtained was used as input to the computer code CONTAM for ventilation simulations. The results obtained were compared with direct measurements of ventilation flow from short term measurements with CO2 tracer gas and medium term measurements with perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT) gas decay method. After validation, in order to analyse the main parameters that affect ventilation, the model was used to predict the ventilation rates for a wide range of conditions. The purpose of this assessment was to find the best practices to improve natural ventilation. A simple analytical method to predict the ventilation flow rate of rooms is also presented. The method is based on the estimation of wind effect on the room through the evaluation of an average factor and on the assessment of relevant cross section of gaps and openings combined in series or in parallel. It is shown that it may be applied with acceptable accuracy for this type of buildings when ventilation is due essentially to wind action.

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Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) can be affected by a multitude of neurologic and psychiatric symptoms with a wide range of prevalence and severity. Irrespectively from attribution to SLE or other causes, neuropsychiatric (NP) symptoms strongly impact short-term and long-term outcomes,thus NP evaluation during routine clinical practice in SLE should be undertaken regularly. The assessment of NP involvement in SLE patients is challenging and the available diagnostic tools fail to guarantee optimal diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity to changes as well as feasibility in routine clinical care. Standardised questionnaires (both physician-administered and self-reported) can offer valuable help to the treating physician to capture all possible NP syndromes; few SLE-specific NP questionnaire have been developed but validation in large cohort or cross-cultural adaptations are still pending. On the other hand, general instruments have been largely applied to SLE patients. Both kinds of questionnaires can address all possible NP manifestations either globally or, more frequently, focus on specific NP symptoms. These latter have been mainly used in SLE to detect and classify mild and subtle symptoms, more likely to be overlooked during routine clinical assessment such as headache, cognitive impairment and psychiatric manifestations. In conclusion, this literature review highlights a clear case for validation studies in this area and the wider implementation of questionnaires to assess NP involvement is still warranted. The broader use of such instruments could have important consequences; first of all, by standardising symptom assessment, a better definition of the prevalence of NP manifestation across different centres could be achieved. Secondly, prospective studies could allow for the evaluation of clinical significance of mild symptoms and their impact on the patient’s function and quality of life.

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INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

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Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir are currently the only effective antiviral drugs available worldwide for the management of influenza. The potential development of resistance is continually threatening their use, rationalizing and highlighting the need for a close and sustained evaluation of virus susceptibility. This study aimed to analyze and characterize the phenotypic and genotypic NAIs susceptibility profiles of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses circulating in Portugal from 2009 to 2010/2011. A total of 144 cases of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection from community and hospitalized patients were studied, including three suspected cases of clinical resistance to oseltamivir. Oseltamivir resistance was confirmed for two of the suspected cases. Neuraminidase (NA) H275Y resistant marker was found in viruses from both cases but for one it was only present in 26.2% of virus population, raising questions about the minimal percentage of resistant virus that should be considered relevant. Cross-decreased susceptibility to oseltamivir and zanamivir (2-4 IC50 fold-change) was detected on viruses from two potentially linked community patients from 2009. Both viruses harbored the NA I223V mutation. NA Y155H mutation was found in 18 statistical non-outlier viruses from 2009, having no impact on virus susceptibility. The mutations at NA N369K and V241I may have contributed to the significantly higher baseline IC50 value obtained to oseltamivir for 2010/2011 viruses, compared to viruses from the pandemic period. These results may contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between phenotype and genotype, which is currently challenging, and to the global assessment of A(H1N1)pdm09 virus susceptibility profile and baseline level to NAIs.