Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

A Homemade Snare: An Alternative Method for Mechanical Removal of Dirofilaria Immitis in Dogs

Canine dirofilariosis is a life-threatening parasitic disease that is increasingly reported worldwide. Once diagnosed the main treatment goals are to improve the animal's clinical condition and to eliminate all life stages of the parasite with minimal posttreatment side effects. This can be achieved through mechanical, surgical, or chemotherapeutical approaches. Currently, manual extraction is the preferred method to remove adult heartworms due to its diminished invasiveness, reduced damage to the vascular endothelium, and shortened anaesthesia duration. However, it remains an expensive technique that can be highly traumatic. To address this issue, a nontraumatic homemade catheter-guided snare was developed for heartworm removal by adapting and folding a 0.014-inch coronary wire (BMW, Abbott Vascular). Transvenous heartworm extraction was performed on a dog severely infected with adult heartworms by inserting the modified snare into a 6-F Judkins right coronary guiding catheter BMW (Cordis) and advancing it into the right ventricle under fluoroscopic guidance. Fifteen adult specimens of Dirofilaria immitis were successfully extracted from the pulmonary artery and right ventricle without complications. To assure the death of both larvae and adults, postoperative treatment was successfully managed using ivermectin, doxycycline, and melarsomine, with no recurrence after surgery.