Predicting Outcome after Cardiopulmonary Arrest in Therapeutic Hypothermia Patients: Clinical, Electrophysiological and Imaging Prognosticators

INTRODUCTION: Predicting outcome in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest is based on data validated by guidelines that were established before the era of therapeutic hypothermia. We sought to evaluate the predictive value of clinical, electrophysiological and imaging data on patients submitted to therapeutic hypothermia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis of consecutive patients receiving therapeutic hypothermia during years 2010 and 2011 was made. Neurological examination, somatosensory evoked potentials, auditory evoked potentials, electroencephalography and brain magnetic resonance imaging were obtained during the first 72 hours. Glasgow Outcome Scale at 6 months, dichotomized into bad outcome (grades 1 and 2) and good outcome (grades 3, 4 and 5), was defined as the primary outcome. RESULTS: A total of 26 patients were studied. Absent pupillary light reflex, absent corneal and oculocephalic reflexes, absent N20 responses on evoked potentials and myoclonic status epilepticus showed no false-positives in predicting bad outcome. A malignant electroencephalographic pattern was also associated with a bad outcome (p = 0.05), with no false-positives. Two patients with a good outcome showed motor responses no better than extension (false-positive rate of 25%, p = 0.008) within 72 hours, both of them requiring prolonged sedation. Imaging findings of brain ischemia did not correlate with outcome. DISCUSSION: Absent pupillary, corneal and oculocephalic reflexes, absent N20 responses and a malignant electroencephalographic pattern all remain accurate predictors of poor outcome in cardiac arrest patients submitted to therapeutic hypothermia. CONCLUSION: Prolonged sedation beyond the hypothermia period may confound prediction strength of motor responses.

Sepsis Mortality Prediction Based on Predisposition, Infection and Response

OBJECTIVE: To empirically test, based on a large multicenter, multinational database, whether a modified PIRO (predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction) concept could be applied to predict mortality in patients with infection and sepsis. DESIGN: Substudy of a multicenter multinational cohort study (SAPS 3). PATIENTS: A total of 2,628 patients with signs of infection or sepsis who stayed in the ICU for >48 h. Three boxes of variables were defined, according to the PIRO concept. Box 1 (Predisposition) contained information about the patient's condition before ICU admission. Box 2 (Injury) contained information about the infection at ICU admission. Box 3 (Response) was defined as the response to the infection, expressed as a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score after 48 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Most of the infections were community acquired (59.6%); 32.5% were hospital acquired. The median age of the patients was 65 (50-75) years, and 41.1% were female. About 22% (n=576) of the patients presented with infection only, 36.3% (n=953) with signs of sepsis, 23.6% (n=619) with severe sepsis, and 18.3% (n=480) with septic shock. Hospital mortality was 40.6% overall, greater in those with septic shock (52.5%) than in those with infection (34.7%). Several factors related to predisposition, infection and response were associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: The proposed three-level system, by using objectively defined criteria for risk of mortality in sepsis, could be used by physicians to stratify patients at ICU admission or shortly thereafter, contributing to a better selection of management according to the risk of death.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Carotid Plaques Improves Prediction of Obstructive Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease in Women

Does carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events, have predictive incremental value over established risk factors for stable coronary artery disease (CAD)? Prospective study of 300 patients, with suspected stable CAD, admitted for an elective coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound. The CAD patients had a higher cIMT, which showed a modest predictive accuracy for CAD (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.638, 95% confidence interval 0.576-0.701, P < .001). The cIMT was an independent predictor of CAD, together with age, gender, and diabetes. C-statistic for CAD prediction by traditional risk factors was not significantly different from a model that included cIMT, carotid plaque presence, or both. However, in women, it was significantly increased by the addition of cIMT or carotid plaque presence. Although cIMT cannot be used as a sole indicator of CAD, it should be considered in the panel of investigations that is requested, particularly in women who are candidates for coronary angiography.