Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Optimization of fMRI Processing Parameters for Simutaneous Acquisition of EEG/fMRI in Focal Epilepsy

In the context of focal epilepsy, the simultaneous combination of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) holds a great promise as a technique by which the hemodynamic correlates of interictal spikes detected on scalp EEG can be identified. The fact that traditional EEG recordings have not been able to overcome the difficulty in correlating the ictal clinical symptoms to the onset in particular areas of the lobes, brings the need of mapping with more precision the epileptogenic cortical regions. On the other hand, fMRI suggested localizations more consistent with the ictal clinical manifestations detected. This study was developed in order to improve the knowledge about the way parameters involved in the physical and mathematical data, produced by the EEG/fMRI technique processing, would influence the final results. The evaluation of the accuracy was made by comparing the BOLD results with: the high resolution EEG maps; the malformative lesions detected in the T1 weighted MR images; and the anatomical localizations of the diagnosed symptomatology of each studied patient. The optimization of the set of parameters used, will provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of epileptogenic focuses, in patients included on an epilepsy surgery evaluation program. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that: by associating the BOLD effect with interictal spikes, the epileptogenic areas are mapped to localizations different from those obtained by the EEG maps representing the electrical potential distribution across the scalp (EEG); there is an important and solid bond between the variation of particular parameters (manipulated during the fMRI data processing) and the optimization of the final results, from which smoothing, deleted volumes, HRF (used to convolve with the activation design), and the shape of the Gamma function can be certainly emphasized.