Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Interictal Spike EEG Source Analysis in Hypothalamic Hamartoma Epilepsy

Objective: The epilepsy associated with the hypothalamic hamartomas constitutes a syndrome with peculiar seizures, usually refractory to medical therapy, mild cognitive delay, behavioural problems and multifocal spike activity in the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG). The cortical origin of spikes has been widely assumed but not specifically demonstrated. Methods: We present results of a source analysis of interictal spikes from 4 patients (age 2–25 years) with epilepsy and hypothalamic hamartoma, using EEG scalp recordings (32 electrodes) and realistic boundary element models constructed from volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs). Multifocal spike activity was the most common finding, distributed mainly over the frontal and temporal lobes. A spike classification based on scalp topography was done and averaging within each class performed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Single moving dipole models were used, as well as the Rap-MUSIC algorithm. Results: All spikes with good signal to noise ratio were best explained by initial deep sources in the neighbourhood of the hamartoma, with late sources located in the cortex. Not a single patient could have his spike activity explained by a combination of cortical sources. Conclusions: Overall, the results demonstrate a consistent origin of spike activity in the subcortical region in the neighbourhood of the hamartoma, with late spread to cortical areas.