3 resultados para Ruin Probability


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BACKGROUND: Surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD) has changed considerably during the last three decades. The results of primary repair have steadily improved, to allow treating almost all patients within the pediatric age; nonetheless an increasing population of adult patients requires surgical treatment. The objective of this study is to present the early surgical results of patients who require surgery for CHD in the adult population within a multicentered European study population. METHODS: Data relative to the hospital course of 2,012 adult patients (age > or = 18 years) who required surgical treatment for CHD from January 1, 1997 through December 31, 2004 were reviewed. Nineteen cardiothoracic centers from 13 European countries contributed to the data collection. RESULTS: Mean age at surgery was 34.4 +/- 14.53 years. Most of the operations were corrective procedures (1,509 patients, 75%), followed by reoperations (464 patients, 23.1%) and palliative procedures (39 patients, 1.9%). Six hundred forty-nine patients (32.2%) required surgical closure of an isolated ostium secundum atrial septal defect. Overall hospital mortality was 2%. Preoperative cyanosis, arrhythmias, and NYHA class III-IV, proved significant risk factors for hospital mortality. Follow-up data were available in 1,342 of 1,972 patients (68%) who were discharged home. Late deaths occurred in 6 patients (0.5%). Overall survival probability was 97% at 60 months, which is higher for corrective procedures (98.2%) if compared with reoperations (94.1%) and palliations (86.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Surgical treatment of CHD in adult patients, in specialized cardiac units, proved quite safe, beneficial, and low-risk.

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BACKGROUND: High-grade gliomas are aggressive, incurable tumors characterized by extensive diffuse invasion of the normal brain parenchyma. Novel therapies at best prolong survival; their costs are formidable and benefit is marginal. Economic restrictions thus require knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of treatments. Here, we show the cost-effectiveness of enhanced resections in malignant glioma surgery using a well-characterized tool for intraoperative tumor visualization, 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided neurosurgery compared with white-light surgery in adult patients with newly diagnosed high-grade glioma, adopting the perspective of the Portuguese National Health Service. METHODS: We used a Markov model (cohort simulation). Transition probabilities were estimated with the use of data from 1 randomized clinical trial and 1 noninterventional prospective study. Utility values and resource use were obtained from published literature and expert opinion. Unit costs were taken from official Portuguese reimbursement lists (2012 values). The health outcomes considered were quality-adjusted life-years, lifeyears, and progression-free life-years. Extensive 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are below €10 000 in all evaluated outcomes, being around €9100 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, €6700 per life-year gained, and €8800 per progression-free life-year gained. The probability of 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery cost-effectiveness at a threshold of €20000 is 96.0% for quality-adjusted life-year, 99.6% for life-year, and 98.8% for progression-free life-year. CONCLUSION: 5-ALA fluorescence-guided surgery appears to be cost-effective in newly diagnosed high-grade gliomas compared with white-light surgery. This example demonstrates cost-effectiveness analyses for malignant glioma surgery to be feasible on the basis of existing data.

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INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES:Recently, three novel non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants received approval for reimbursement in Portugal for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). It is therefore important to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of these new oral anticoagulants in Portuguese AF patients. METHODS: A Markov model was used to analyze disease progression over a lifetime horizon. Relative efficacy data for stroke (ischemic and hemorrhagic), bleeding (intracranial, other major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding), myocardial infarction and treatment discontinuation were obtained by pairwise indirect comparisons between apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban using warfarin as a common comparator. Data on resource use were obtained from the database of diagnosis-related groups and an expert panel. Model outputs included life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), direct healthcare costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS:Apixaban provided the most life years gained and QALYs. The ICERs of apixaban compared to warfarin and dabigatran were €5529/QALY and €9163/QALY, respectively. Apixaban was dominant over rivaroxaban (greater health gains and lower costs). The results were robust over a wide range of inputs in sensitivity analyses. Apixaban had a 70% probability of being cost-effective (at a threshold of €20 000/QALY) compared to all the other therapeutic options. CONCLUSIONS:Apixaban is a cost-effective alternative to warfarin and dabigatran and is dominant over rivaroxaban in AF patients from the perspective of the Portuguese national healthcare system. These conclusions are based on indirect comparisons, but despite this limitation, the information is useful for healthcare decision-makers.