Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Curcumin Inhibits Gastric Inflammation Induced by Helicobacter Pylori Infection in a Mouse Model

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection triggers a sequence of gastric alterations starting with an inflammation of the gastric mucosa that, in some cases, evolves to gastric cancer. Efficient vaccination has not been achieved, thus it is essential to find alternative therapies, particularly in the nutritional field. The current study evaluated whether curcumin could attenuate inflammation of the gastric mucosa due to H. pylori infection. Twenty-eight C57BL/6 mice, were inoculated with the H. pylori SS1 strain; ten non-infected mice were used as controls. H. pylori infection in live mice was followed-up using a modified 13C-Urea Breath Test (13C-UBT) and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Histologically confirmed, gastritis was observed in 42% of infected non-treated mice at both 6 and 18 weeks post-infection. These mice showed an up-regulation of the expression of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines, as well as of toll-like receptors (TLRs) and MyD88, at both time points. Treatment with curcumin decreased the expression of all these mediators. No inflammation was observed by histology in this group. Curcumin treatment exerted a significant anti-inflammatory effect in H. pylori-infected mucosa, pointing to the promising role of a nutritional approach in the prevention of H. pylori induced deleterious inflammation while the eradication or prevention of colonization by effective vaccine is not available.