Modeling in-Hospital Patient Survival During the First 28 Days After Intensive Care Unit Admission: a Prognostic Model for Clinical Trials in General Critically Ill Patients

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to develop a model for estimating patient 28-day in-hospital mortality using 2 different statistical approaches. DESIGN: The study was designed to develop an outcome prediction model for 28-day in-hospital mortality using (a) logistic regression with random effects and (b) a multilevel Cox proportional hazards model. SETTING: The study involved 305 intensive care units (ICUs) from the basic Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) 3 cohort. PATIENTS AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients (n = 17138) were from the SAPS 3 database with follow-up data pertaining to the first 28 days in hospital after ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The database was divided randomly into 5 roughly equal-sized parts (at the ICU level). It was thus possible to run the model-building procedure 5 times, each time taking four fifths of the sample as a development set and the remaining fifth as the validation set. At 28 days after ICU admission, 19.98% of the patients were still in the hospital. Because of the different sampling space and outcome variables, both models presented a better fit in this sample than did the SAPS 3 admission score calibrated to vital status at hospital discharge, both on the general population and in major subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Both statistical methods can be used to model the 28-day in-hospital mortality better than the SAPS 3 admission model. However, because the logistic regression approach is specifically designed to forecast 28-day mortality, and given the high uncertainty associated with the assumption of the proportionality of risks in the Cox model, the logistic regression approach proved to be superior.

Fractures in Children and Adolescents with Spina Bifida: The Experience of a Portuguese Tertiary-Care Hospital

AIM: The morbidity associated with osteoporosis and fractures in children and adolescents with spina bifida highlights the importance of osteoporosis prevention and treatment in these patients. The aim of this study was to examine the occurrence and pattern of bone fractures in paediatric patients with spina bifida. METHOD: We reviewed the data of all paediatric patients with spina bifida who were treated in our centre between 1999 and 2008. RESULTS: One hundred and thirteen patients were included in the study (63 females, 50 males; mean age 10y 8mo, SD 4y 10mo, range 6mo-18y). The motor levels were thoracic in six, upper lumbar in 22, lower lumbar in 42, and sacral in 43 patients. Of the 113 patients, 58 (51.3%) had shunted hydrocephalus. Thirty-six (31.8%) were non-ambulatory (wheelchair-dependent [unable to self-propel wheelchair] n=3, wheelchair-independent [able to self-propel wheelchair] n=33), 13 were partial ambulators, 61 were full ambulators, and three were below the age of walking. Forty-five fractures were reported in 25 patients. The distal femur was the most common fracture site. Statistical analyses showed that patients with higher levels of involvement and in wheelchairs had a significantly increased risk of having a [corrected] fracture (p<0.001). Spontaneous fractures were the principal mechanism of injury, and an association was identified between fracture mechanism, type of ambulation, and lesion level: the fractures of patients with higher levels of motor functioning and those in wheelchairs were mainly pathological (p=0.01). We identified an association between risk of a second fracture, higher motor level lesion, and non-ambulation. There was an increased risk of having a second fracture after a previous spontaneous fracture (p=0.004). INTERPRETATION: Data in this study indicate a high prevalence of fractures in patients with spina bifida.

Why and How Was Regionalization of Perinatal Care Accomplished in Portugal?

Portuguese health care system was created in 1979. It is universal and for free. Expenses are supported by the State through taxes. The modern perinatal care system started by the end of 1970. The first neonatal intensive care units were created in 1980, the Portuguese Neonatal Society in 1985 and the National Neonatal Transport System in 1987. Until the seventies of twentieth century and even during eighties there were more than 200 hospitals with deliveries, a great part without obstetrician or paediatrician, a great percentage of pregnancies had no prenatal care, there were few neonatal intensive care units and perinatal mortality rate was one of the highest in the European countries. In 1987 an Experts Committee was nominated by the Health Ministry aiming to collect and analyse data on perinatal care and to suggest improvements. The Report resulting from this work is the main document on which is based the reform. The reform was a 9 years program in 3 years stages aiming to close hospitals with less than 1500 deliveries/year, to reclassify hospitals, to create Coordinating Units between health centres and hospitals, to equip neonatal intensive and intermediate care units, to define needs of obstetricians, paediatricians and nurses for each centre and to promote specialised training in neonatology for paediatricians and nurses. Levels of perinatal care were defined as well as localization of each level of hospital according to the number of deliveries in one geographic area, geographic difficulties and existing routes and connections. Steps for opening and closure of different levels of hospitals were very well programmed. The organization, capacities, number of obstetricians, neonatologists and nurses as well as equipment for each level of care was defined. Rules for pregnant women and newborns transfer from level II to level III hospitals were also well described. A specific training is neonatology was created starting in 1990. This organization resulted in an impressive decrease in mortality rates at all levels and still it is the policy we have today.

Mortality after Discharge from Intensive Care: the Impact of Organ System Failure and Nursing Workload Use at Discharge

OBJECTIVES: Mortality after ICU discharge accounts for approx. 20-30% of deaths. We examined whether post-ICU discharge mortality is associated with the presence and severity of organ dysfunction/failure just before ICU discharge. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study used the database of the EURICUS-II study, with a total of 4,621 patients, including 2,958 discharged alive to the general wards (post-ICU mortality 8.6%). Over a 4-month period we collected clinical and demographic characteristics, including the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II), Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. RESULTS: Those who died in the hospital after ICU discharge had a higher SAPS II score, were more frequently nonoperative, admitted from the ward, and had stayed longer in the ICU. Their degree of organ dysfunction/failure was higher (admission, maximum, and delta SOFA scores). They required more nursing workload resources while in the ICU. Both the amount of organ dysfunction/failure (especially cardiovascular, neurological, renal, and respiratory) and the amount of nursing workload that they required on the day before discharge were higher. The presence of residual CNS and renal dysfunction/failure were especially prognostic factors at ICU discharge. Multivariate analysis showed only predischarge organ dysfunction/failure to be important; thus the increased use of nursing workload resources before discharge probably reflects only the underlying organ dysfunction/failure. CONCLUSIONS: It is better to delay the discharge of a patient with organ dysfunction/failure from the ICU, unless adequate monitoring and therapeutic resources are available in the ward.

Characterizing the Risk Profiles of Intensive Care Units

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new method to evaluate the performance of individual ICUs through the calculation and visualisation of risk profiles. METHODS: The study included 102,561 patients consecutively admitted to 77 ICUs in Austria. We customized the function which predicts hospital mortality (using SAPS II) for each ICU. We then compared the risks of hospital mortality resulting from this function with the risks which would be obtained using the original function. The derived risk ratio was then plotted together with point-wise confidence intervals in order to visualise the individual risk profile of each ICU over the whole spectrum of expected hospital mortality. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: We calculated risk profiles for all ICUs in the ASDI data set according to the proposed method. We show examples how the clinical performance of ICUs may depend on the severity of illness of their patients. Both the distribution of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistics and the histogram of the corresponding P values demonstrated a good fit of the individual risk models. CONCLUSIONS: Our risk profile model makes it possible to evaluate ICUs on the basis of the specific risk for patients to die compared to a reference sample over the whole spectrum of hospital mortality. Thus, ICUs at different levels of severity of illness can be directly compared, giving a clear advantage over the use of the conventional single point estimate of the overall observed-to-expected mortality ratio.

Movimento Assistencial da Unidade de Cuidados Intensivos Polivalente do Hospital de Santo António dos Capuchos

Apresenta-se o movimento assistencial da Unidade de Cuidados Intensivos Polivalente (UCIP) do Hospital de Santo António dos Capuchos (HSAC), no seu ano de funcionamento (1 de Julho de 1991 a 30 de Junho de 1992). Foram internados 282 doentes, com uma idade média global de 57.91±18.16 anos e provenientes em 52.5% dos casos do Serviço de Urgência do HSAC. As principais categorias diagnósticas de admissão foram a falência cardiovascular cmlii doentes(39%) e a falência respiratória em 98 (35%); 50.7% dos doentes foram submetidos a ventilação mecânica, 44% a ecocardiografia, 13.5% a broncofibroscopia e 10.3% a monitorização hemodinâmica com catéter de Swan-Ganz. Trata-se de uma população com índices de gravidade elevados e importante mortalidade na UCIP (27.0%) e no Hospital (37.6%). Índices de gravidade,APACHEII, SAPS 1 e TISS nas primeiras 24 horas e pontuação máxima de dois índices de falência múltipla de órgão - MOF e 0SF- validados nesta população e revelaram-se como bons indicadores de prognóstico.

Contraceptive Choices Pre and Post Pregnancy in Adolescence

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The main aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of adolescent pregnancy in the future contraceptive choices. A secondary aim is to verify whether these choices differ from those made after an abortion. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING:Adolescent Unit of a tertiary care center. PARTICIPANTS:212 pregnant teenagers. INTERVENTIONS: Medical records review. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Intended pregnancy rate and contraceptive methods used before and after pregnancy. For contraceptive choices after pregnancy we considered: Group 1 - teenagers who continued their pregnancy to delivery (n = 106) and Group 2 - the same number of adolescents who chose to terminate their pregnancy. RESULTS: The intended pregnancy rate was 14.2%. Prior to a pregnancy continued to delivery, the most widely used contraceptive method was the male condom (50.9%), followed by oral combined contraceptives (28.3%); 18.9% of adolescents were not using any contraceptive method. After pregnancy, contraceptive implant was chosen by 70.8% of subjects (P < .001) and the oral combined contraceptives remained the second most frequent option (17.9%, P = .058). Comparing these results with Group 2, we found that the outcome of the pregnancy was the main factor in the choices that were made. Thus, after a pregnancy continued to delivery, adolescents prefer the use of LARC [78.4% vs 40.5%, OR: 5,958 - 95% (2.914-12.181), P < .001)], especially contraceptive implants [70.8% vs 38.7%, OR: 4.371 - 95% (2.224-8.591), P < .001], to oral combined contraceptives [17.9% vs 57.5%, OR: 0.118 - 95% CI (0.054-0.258), P < .001]. CONCLUSION:Adolescent pregnancy and its outcome constitute a factor of change in future contraceptive choice.

The Intensive Care Global Study on Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (IC-GLOSSARI): a Multicenter, Multinational, 14-Day Inception Cohort Study

PURPOSE: In this prospective, multicenter, 14-day inception cohort study, we investigated the epidemiology, patterns of infections, and outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) as a result of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs). METHODS: All patients admitted to one of 206 participating ICUs during two study weeks, one in November 2013 and the other in January 2014, were screened. SARI was defined as possible, probable, or microbiologically confirmed respiratory tract infection with recent onset dyspnea and/or fever. The primary outcome parameter was in-hospital mortality within 60 days of admission to the ICU. RESULTS: Among the 5550 patients admitted during the study periods, 663 (11.9 %) had SARI. On admission to the ICU, Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria were found in 29.6 and 26.2 % of SARI patients but rarely atypical bacteria (1.0 %); viruses were present in 7.7 % of patients. Organ failure occurred in 74.7 % of patients in the ICU, mostly respiratory (53.8 %), cardiovascular (44.5 %), and renal (44.6 %). ICU and in-hospital mortality rates in patients with SARI were 20.2 and 27.2 %, respectively. In multivariable analysis, older age, greater severity scores at ICU admission, and hematologic malignancy or liver disease were independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital death, whereas influenza vaccination prior to ICU admission and adequate antibiotic administration on ICU admission were associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Admission to the ICU for SARI is common and associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. We identified several risk factors for in-hospital death that may be useful for risk stratification in these patients.

Perinatal Care in Portugal: Effects of 15 Years of a Regionalized System

AIM: To share information on the organization of perinatal care in Portugal. METHODS: Data were derived from the Programme of the National Committee for Mother and Child Health 1989, National Institute for Statistics, and Eurostat. RESULTS: In 1989, perinatal care in Portugal was reformed: the closure was proposed of maternity units with less than 1500 deliveries per year; hospitals were classified as level I (no deliveries), II (low-risk deliveries, intermediate care units) or III (high-risk deliveries, intensive care units), and functional coordinating units responsible for liaison between local health centres and hospitals were established. A nationwide system of neonatal transport began in 1987, and in 1990 postgraduate courses on neonatology were initiated. With this reform, in-hospital deliveries increased from 74% before the reform to 99% after. Maternal death rate decreased from 9.2/100,000 deliveries in 1989 to 5.3 in 2003 and, in the same period, the perinatal mortality rate decreased from 16.4 to 6.6/1000 (live births + stillborn with > or = 22 wk gestational age), the neonatal mortality rate decreased from 8.1 to 2.7/1000 live births, and the infant mortality rate from 12.2/1000 live births to 4/1000. CONCLUSION: Regionalization of perinatal care and neonatal transport are key factors for a successful perinatal health system.